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Gone ex div today, and up?

Steve I am not talking about general inflation but the change in Cey aisc as in the report in 2016/17 and now, and it’s large impact on change in profit and share price in past 5/6 years

Razor, I think it was the big reduction in profit, and that came even more from the massive rise in price than lesser fall in ounces, costs have doubled since the 550k days, from in the $700’s aisc, so even at 550oz with 1800 gold would now be making just $90m or so, a far cry from what we did, so I watch the costs not the ounces, tho ounces help sentiment and to lower costs a bit

Another week and PGM basket down from 2175 and 1660(Karo) to 1981 and 1575 (1860 in Jan) so PGM profit down perhaps 20% in a week? Someone put me right on what 7% fall in price means. And Karo sums becoming steadily worse. However saved by Chrome till Karo comes and hits us if PGM still falling, as we are majority profits from chrome now. 1.75mt of chrome at extra $70 since October which I seem to make extra $120m? Which makes up a lot of PGM shortfall

Razor I think the best driver of the share price is expected profit. Even with output up a bit depends if costs rise more in this highly inflationary environment (see other miners). Also the dividend cut may affect share price more as it seems unexpected by many so may be quite substantial as they will be paying out a lower proportion of lower profits, so I am looking for the gold price to save us tho not just yet, and would love the icing of increased output combined with lower costs

Tibbs Endeavour shareholders can happily take it as have done so much better than us, up one third in last three years, while Cey is down a third, so if you had moved from Endeavour to Cey 3 years ago then would have double the money compared to staying in Cey boo boo. They were lucky they failed to buy us, and of course if they had we would also have partaken in a bit of success combined with our failure so would be about 150 now I reckon

Steve I think it is mining inflation rather than the general level, that Gnome is talking about. with gold getting harder and harder to find it will become rapidly increasingly expensive to get out - expect for us who already have the gold and mostly have costs that increase or decrease with inflation/deflation, unless we start searching for far more expensive gold to get out

So Gnome, in the longer term gild should rise, but because miners are doing worse with far higher costs so better buy gold than the miners, unless like CEY with a long life mine that should become increasingly profitable at least until 2040 or 50 in your scenario, as other miners find life much more expensive ( just look at the likes of scrabbling Hoc)

…turning? Which way? Miners prices are predicting down….

Mike, just as the market still consider Hochschild to be a silver producer with some gold, whilst it has become a gold producer with some silver, the market does not yet rate THS as a chromium producer with some PGM. Of course Karo will change this unless PGMs continue down their slippery slope and chromium continues to rise. However another reason that THS is underrated as the price is based, I think, on an expected PGM fall that may not matter so much to us

Master maybe you were lucky to buy here, maybe not. It is thegold price that will move our share now and who knows? It depends a lot on interest rate expectations which are up a lot in last couple of weeks but who knows where next for the inflation rate expectations that drive them. I remember in the 60’s when e of payment figure was all important and keenly awaited. Then inflation figures. Then it was the money supply that was all important. Then bond rate expectations and 10 year TIP rate. Sentiment is a fickle mistress and you maybe lucky, maybe not

I swapped £11k of Centamin for Hoc last week selling Cey 110.9 and buying Hoc66.8 as overall on average Hoc shares are about 40% above Centamin, and though we are hit by lower production forecast (a lot and why, not just Pallancata), permits, politics and insurrection Cey was 60% above Hoc.

Either view could be right so just nice to respect each other. On the one hand Pardy et al presided over a high divi and partly hence high share price policy. And Horgan 3 years in is still presiding over lower dividends that look like falling further, and. 3 years is quite a long time. On the other maybe Pardy et al’s policy led to the wall fall which has made Horgans job hard. However after the wall Horgan did say it would be a couple of tough years. Now we have had three. So really this year is the crucial year to see if he is better than the last lot or worse imho so either side might be proved right. My feeling is Spoonington’s view is slightly likelier and he won’t make good, (I think he wasn’t boasting about his prowess but the money we could make under Pardy) but then many here think Horgan has just had a bad set of cards and even three years on we should be prepared to give him longer. So as said either might be right so let’s try to respect and understand each other just as with the other big issues of the day from Brexit to woke, there is far too much vitriol censorship and intolerance of others’ views for it to spill here. And all of us know whatever we think of Centamin future we may be quite wrong. Have a lovely day, fab weather for those not expat.

Winston. Why do you any that when they, at the last quarterly presentation, say will probably only be a partial approval meaning less profit. Do you know more than the board, hope so!

As many, have commented the great thing about this board, is that it encompasses different views and tolerance of them. I agree with Spoonington and preferred the rising share and decent dividend under the previous management, even if it meant it couldn’t go on forever, it was preferable to not at all. Now we are promised a relatively low yielding share and the management has yet to prove itself in my humble opinion but as said it takes both views. As regards the share price it looks forward and with less confidence in the gold price this week than last shares will likely be lower at the same price. wWhen compared to a few year ago it will be much lower at the same gold price because costs have risen with inflation, so we need higher gold each year for the same profit and share price.

Spoonington, not so far but we live in hope

People here make so much fuss about us losing half our profit to Emra but miners in countries from Chile to Peru pay near 50% tax, and these are rising so not much different and no threats of rises for us. Be pleased with the half we do make, and pleased with the fantastic dividends till more recently, if disappointed that under Horgan profits lower, though hoping he has front loaded this as many new CEO’s do. Also his policy is to pay less profit as dividend and with this lower we will no longer be a high dividend company unless our share price falls or gold rises. Personally one of the great attractions of Cey under the previous management is they didn’t plough lots of profit back into the ground but gave it to us even if the collapse may have been a bit of a result, we were getting the entire cost of the shares back in under a decade. With the dangers of mining this gives a comfort

Yes Tornado, as every 1% rise or fall in gold translated to between 3 and 4 times percentage change in profit, so 4% gold drop from recent top should equate to around 15% fall in share price or near 20p drop in Cey which we have seen, so in my view the pull back is due to gold fall not a hopeless company, and if/when gold rises we should be geared to that. Some on this board were overcomplimetary in the last decade and over critical now, gett8ng it wrong in my view both times. Cey remains my biggest holding not because I believe this management is better but that there is a lot of gold to be mined and the costs are not absurd, even if Horgan heavily front loaded it, cause for further hope imho

Of course Steve, but Barrick is keen on Egypt as Cowichan just reiterated, Centamin is still good value and if Horgan is to be believed the mine heading back to tier 1, however I was just positing that the Emra might be one of the impediments? Unlike Tibbs I have done well out of takeovers, as always take the money rather than stay in, that usually seems to destroy value as he says, and if that is 50 or 60% above share price before I much appreciate it. But of course as Cowichan again points out, one of the great assets of this board is the cornucopia of views

Thanks as ever Cowichan Spoonington etc, you are right that the variety of views and lively debate has been stimulating. Viz a potential takeover, if Barrick wanted Cey why are they waiting while the company becomes steadily more expensive? Could the Emra half stake be off putting and could it be ongoing negotiations with them?