Member Info for Sotolo

Because the bank failure changed things and as Keynes said when the fact I change my mind, and the price of Cey fell making them good value, and the directors bought, and quite surprisingly seems we might be at the top of the interest rate cycle. Nothing pleases me more than when he gets it wrong, now let’s hope he is not proved right and this is not temporary

Actually 100k from Horgan and 50k from Jerard is far more than management have been investing for a long while and I would say a very positive sign, I have now bought 30k at an average of 101 over the last week and feel comfortable to have done so

as said I bought just a few thousand more reinvesting the divi a few days ago at 94p so I am obviously a believer, just the share price is absurdly low at current profits but would be justified by much lower ones so plenty of wiggle room and a greta management plus market doesn't really realise we are now a chrome miner with PGM's

Steve, so often gold shoots one way then sets off the other, I hope that is not the case today

Hi visitor I did ask if my aisc is were in the right ballpark, it seems with Karo yes but Tharisa mine PGM you think is considerably lower if 1150, which is cheering, I will look at my sums again
On PGM forecasts two years ago Rh was in the $20,000’s, I said I thought it likely to fall and COULD even fall as low as $2000 , tho I didn’t expect anything like that much just a lot, particularly with the marginal reduction in demand as number of pure ev’s increases, a even a small reduction in demand can lead to a big reduction in price. This was a multi year expectation and I didn’t think it would go that far, however it is already down near $8k when it was over three times as much. I am not a permabear, just we have been in a two year so far PGM bear market and I say it as I see it. However chromium is in a bull market which I didn’t see and nearly makes up for it, and overall our very lowly historic PE has room to quintuple still making current share price reasonable (ie profits fall 5 fold). Finally I hope the PGM bear will turn before Karo opens plus Platinum (and Palladium) demand will grow, Karo is much less reliant on rh, and 10% gold. My other hope is that there is a hybrid explosion in third world to make up for ev explosion in first. And as said all this is just me so please do point out my errors, I never suggest I have it all right

Mr T are you away from Cornwall or just sleeping very badly? X

Mr J. Really appreciate your Posts on trades as done, I try to even if just adding for long term, please keep doing so

Is there any knowledge of permit in this price rise amidst falling gold or just hope?

Prof clever Mr Jones selling at 107. I couldn’t resist getting even more at 99. Hoc seems to be rising despite PM falls maybe on some knowledge or hope of permit problem being solved? Normally it is more expensive than cey but now a third less

I was talking about the immediate trend, rh down yet again today. But yes hopefully it will have reversed by later 2024 as you suggest unless we have a stinking recession

However I am in Suffolk where it is early to bed early to rise, however I am always surprised how often Razor is up before me and how many post overnight, most from Oz

I meant the many of us in Oz

Thank you Spoonington, quite agree, I enjoy waking to the overnight posts from those who live in sunnier climes, inc Gnome etc including Tibbs of course from Cornwall, I have visions of him waking and grabbing the computer as a thought comes to mind and then falling back to sleep, unless he has headed south). Also good Telegraph piece from AJ Bell which seems pretty spot on, thanks Razor

So if we all think Karo aisc is around $1400 and current price is 1575 then 150k oz would deliver $26m a year less interest and translated to sterling maybe £10 or 15m profit. Tharisa at current basket price of $1900, and if breakeven is say $1500 then $70k which after tax etc and into sterling maybe £35m. And chromium at current price around £50m? All that Would make a healthy £100m profit? So fine at the moment but Rh still falling, when I said rh would fall below $10k a year ago others thought highly unlikely. Well $5k is as likely or more , than $20k. And chromium could easily falll back. So the big challenge is what we’ll do with Karo spend IF our cash flow was to turn negative. Our declining share price demonstrates this.

On another note interesting that Centamin has earning of 5p per share so PE of 20, while
Tharisa has earnings of 50p per share PE under 2
Tharisa only pays out 17% on profit in divi but that is over 6% and higher than CEY which has payed out most of them though reducing to above 30%
The worry with Theresa is they are ploughing the rest of the profits and more into a new hole in the ground in Zimbabwe, mining platinum palladium rhodium and around 10% gold, but this is very advanced and will start producing next year. Tharisa too have borrowed for the first time, just as interest rates soar, and a similar sort of amount
Tharisa are subject to the rapid drop in rhodium but made up for by the rapid rise in chromium
The share prices are saying the market expects Centamin profits to double
And Tharisa's to fall 5 fold
For both to be on a PE about 10
I am not sure it is right, as both are growth stocks if risky, but Theresa far more so on both

Mr Tibbles, they are always confounding doing the opposite of what you expect except when they don't - so you have it on the button, maybe they will spank us down and maybe they won't, all best

Mike (or Ilsa) on another note what do you think the v rough break even prices are: Theresa mine PGM's $1500, chromium $150? Karo $1400?

Mike, the trend is your friend, and sadly PGM’s have been in a bear market for nearly two years and I can see no reason for when it will turn, it doesn’t seem we have hit capitulation yet nor near it, so your PE of 2 is looking backwards, looking forwards it could easily be 10 or more, hence the share price. Lucky we have lots of leeway tho shame we have turned borrowers just now. On a cheerier note most of the Karo investment will be financed out of the unusual recent windfall profits so that 9% bond doesn’t mean Karo has to pay back 9% on all its investment, and in a way lucky it isn’t ready now with tumbling PGM prices - hopefully they will have turned in a couple of years when Karo finally fully going. Even more hopefully chromium will continue to save the day, tho maybe not if the world hits the big oncoming recession/slump.

Yes profits at this price around 3 to 1 to gold price increase/decrease. I extremely naughtily bought another 10k at £1.03 at the opening today, they are still 4% cheaper than a week ago!

Now $2007, happy with Fri morns rare purchase but the price was just too good, wonder where we will open today?