Member Info for Sotolo

Gosh the basket is down further, can I be calculating it right as I make it now only $1630 and Karo $1450. Yes I know Karo is not producing so currently academic apart from if it was producing it would probably be losing money at this price at least in first year or two so we are spending hundreds of millions on what is rapidly becoming a loss maker I’d PGM’s continue their two year trend and noth8ng to suggest they won’t . If PGM’s continue to fall we become a chromium miner which can sell its PGM at a bit of a loss (apart from Karo that could be mothballed I suppose) so let’s hope chromium keeps rising. Also to reiterate I am not a shorter or manipulator (as if one could hear) but trying to explain why the so many buyers don’t want THS thus making the price just 90p. I hold as if prices continue to fall the weak will be driven out and ultimately our fine management and lower costs will win out when prices eventually recover unless this is secular from Ev’s etc

Mike. The PGM price is hypothetical for profit till Karo opens but not for the share price which looks forward, and as we see and is very worried as the PGM basket continues to fall, now just over $1500 for Karo and around $1690 for Tharisa mine. Mike thanks so much for the Karo Aisc, I wonder if you have calculated aisc for Tharisa mine for both chromium and thePGM basket at the current prices and split between them and at these prices so what proportion of profit is chromium and what proportion PGM’s currently. I have not been able to calculate these numbers so do not calculate actual profit as you clever chaps do, but where it is headed which explains the share price. With rising aisc and the basket down so much over two years my matchbox says PGM profit down from near $3000 an ounce to a tenth of that. Chromium is fab of course but was a much smaller proportion of profit to start. The Karo worry is also justifying the tumbling share price as that projected aisc you quote is likely to have risen so although at least it is still projected to make a small profit, but the share price concern remains that if the 2 year PGM downward trend continues and aisc rises whether it will be loss making on opening. I apologise that some people find explanations of the falling share price so annoying, it matters to me as my 527095 shares have lost me a massive £250k. I have every desire to talk these up. Actually so you mostly stop being so nasty to me let me rewrite this as you would like and do so as you seem to think my posts can affect the price and are just written to do so!. Given the imminent conquering of inflation I see aisc halving. Given the worry about electric car pollution from tyres and batteries I see them being banned. I therefore see the PGM basket rising to $10000. I also see China’s growth fallback reversing and instead soaring to 20% growth as the world booms thanks to the brilliant politicians. So chromium is set to sore. I can say our share price will therefore be over £5 in a year. So short term traders buy buy buy Now will you start being nice to me.? Seriously as written so many times I think this is a great share as such a ver we’ll run company and a brilliant long term hold, just it may be a rocky couple of years just now for you traders who dislike me so. Thanks again Mike Moneyman Ragnar etc for your hard work and brilliant posts

I didn’t read it as saying the permit was approved but rather that Bustamante had done all the work to complete the permit application including all the extra info continually asked for, so now no longer needed while the permit granters finally make up their minds either way during June

Well good news today, Bustamante who has presided over the shareholder destruction and Snap wasted investment is off, I wonder if he was pushed, I hope not because of his permit negotiating skills. However they still say the expect the permit decision within a month…

Tibbs if I am reading this right Dr David Martin is not a medical doctor but a financial researcher full of conspiracy theories. See. https://www.factcheck.org/2020/08/new-plandemic-video-peddles-misinformation-conspiracies/ Martin has peddled conspiracy theories over the years. He published a novel in 2011, which he claimed was based on real events, alleging a rigged 2008 presidential election that was somehow tied to the terror attacks on Sept. 11, 2001.

Not a lot to do with either Centamin or reality methinks

Break twister the board has been saying for a long time that the permit result is unlikely to be binary ie yay or nay but in some way limited. If this indeed turns out to be the case the current price may to some extent take account of it which isn’t to say it won’t plummet on the news but may then bounce back?

Yup Chromium up a great 7% already this month PGM down 8%. Presumably more profit now coming from chromium than pgm so chromium rise actually outweighs pgm fall for profit….other than if Karo had kicked in.

Also interesting that chromium 99 spot China has been falling for quite a while on investing.com while our rises

Also why do you think the share price has almost halved in the last 12 months, and what will make it turn? Thanks

Let me ask you a question, platinum palladium etc stayed flat and rh continued its fall and averaged $5000, which is not impossible and would push the basket under $1600, and chromium remained the same, while inflation pushed costs further how would this affect the profit compared to half one? Thanks and as said all hypothetical, so invest in great management

Mike I am not worried about production number but pgm and chrome prices. When I suggested Rh might fall below $10000 I got lots of criticism for even positing it. Now what if Rh falls below $5000 which is perfectly possible. Even at the rates today Tharisa basket is already below $1800 and karo below $1600. Assuming these fall a bit more and chromium doesn’t rise further which is what I expect then second half will be lower. We cannot be scientific on prices, there are as many people who think they will rise and a platinum etc shortfall plus same chromium, and many who think they will fall as economies fall back,but will they and who knows? So I stay invested, not for the coming profit I cannot really know,nor what the share price will do, but a great management who are growing this company mainly out of their own cash flow. And I for one hugely appreciate your numbers and ways of looking at it as well as other contributors here who are so tolerant of each other and so helpful to me

I was saying PGM price is now near 20% down on that in these latest figures which are for the last 6 month reporting period. Chromium is only slightly up on the average in these figures. Therefore if current prices are maintained profits will be lower second half. I also said nice figures for last half and dividend. I have also said I continue to hold as see great future for these shares particularly given the Greta management. Sorry if you don’t like the figures and only want one view. As said that is sadly Britain today

Nice results and divi, on pgm ave $2216, but basket is now near 20% lower so generating about half the pgm profit in coming half as long as average stays up here. Plus costs are soaring. However pgm oz were down so their recovery will help and hopefully chrome will stay up so with luck second half profits down only a quarter. Market still seems worried at what is coming.

Thanks Mike, Moneyman and Ragnar, your posts are so useful. Ian B, don’t shoot the messenger, I was super optimistic when PGM prices were rising, and more lately have most sadly been right predicting falling share price as the opposite happens - I remember some being furious when I suggested that rh could fall below $10000 - and trying to find reasons for that. However I am not a trader. I only accumulate, sadly for now, as I take a very long term view and on that it looks undervalued unless ehicle electrification is able to find a way of shooting through the third world. Plus I have great long term faith in Phebos and family On the PE front Yes of course the share price is absurdly low in terms of the latest profits but it is expecting those profits to fall. Many now blame the messengers, the fourth estate that helps uphold democracy and call the powerful to account is under attack by the public, whipped on by the powerful. However I find both sides of arguments are so helpful including explanations for the share price action unlike so many boards where all poster just say their share should be higher and some conspiracy is holding it down rather than an excess of sellers over buyers. So thanks all as ever. Sadly the PGM fall looks like it has a fair way to go so down before up. Now shoot me.

Feynzz, boards like markets and democracies need both views, there is no point in surrounding yourself with like minded opinions, tho most sadly do now. I stay because I will be happy with a 2.5c interim, which is 3% just for this interim, and because the PE is so very low it has taken account of the lower profits coming in my view. I hope that Mike is right, but the great thing about this board is that it tolerates debate. With mining, a small change in demand or supply can greatly affect the price. The big question for Karo and half of Tharisa is if PGM’s continue to fall dramatically because of the small fall in demand, so Mike’s posited 10% is much exceeded. As frequently said, and just now, I remain a holder while expecting lower profits and a lower share price as I am hopeless at timing the market but have great faith in the family and them riding this out so expect the shares to be double or treble…..one day…..just no idea which! In the meantime profits will become nasty especially if Chinese demand means chromium turns

Presumably with PGMs still falling second half NPAT will be considerable lower, and Karo may be finished when loss making?

Mike you recently suggested 3c and I suggested 2.5c, let’s see and let’s hope your raised 3.25c is right

Salsa, I think you are looking through the rear view mirror. Karo is pretty much all pgm and Tharisa is half PGM, so once Karo is on stream 2/3 of current profit will come from PGM, and the PGMk are very highly geared at these sort of prices for us, so if the sort of falls predicted below, with electrification worries, come about and more the PE will be nothing like 2 or 3 unless of course the share price continues down with them, as we head to much smaller PGM profit… or loss, I think this worry is weighing heavier than the politics on our share price

Yes Moneyman let’s hope so, however as said frequently I expect a lower dividend or 2 or 2.5c, just as the final was 20% down a couple of months ago, just because THS pays out around 17% of profit and profit will be lower (pgm profit down perhaps 80% from peak and chromium doesn’t make up for it, not does platinum and palladium current rise make up for rhodium continual fall). However let us see, and let us hope you are right!

Paul, one decent result including return to ounces profits and dividends of yore would shoot us up but I can’t see that happening soon, ie till we get on top of costs plus we now have a management that has said it will pay lower dividends even with higher profits so they can sink more in new self agrandising holes in the ground in W Afica etc. So yes one great results would do it, but not coming soon. Have to rely on the gold price

Ps the final in March was already down 20% on March 2022 due to falling earnings, the interim is likely to be down more, and the final next year even more at this rate