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Noel can’t work out did they buy or sell

Basket down again to just over $1300 per expectation so now becoming loss making, Karo around $1250 and would be rather more loss making. On chromium that will hopefully save us does anyone know the difference between SA Cr2O3 which is down from a top around $307to $287 with just a a small slip this week, and SA HC Ferro Chrome 50% which has fallen from a top of around $315 to around $245, a much bigger drop, and another 2% this week. Which of those two is how important to our profitability or stemming our losses? Thanks

Moneyman last thing Tharisa should do is a buy back; they need to do the opposite and conserve cash for Karo imho

Moneyman I think the current share price assumes that PGM’s will fall further and make losses for THS as ICE market share falls, and chromium fall further in face of Chinese slowdown. If either of these doesn’t happen and outweighs the other, the shares should rise, if not may continue to fall. It logical forward view if not necessarily right

Thanks so much Dave, Hochschild management is either very unlucky….or……. It doesn’t bode well for Inmaculada permit if they can fail so easily with Aclara. I wonder if Bustamente was pushed by the family? They must be pretty worried despite having sold such a large chunk at near treble todays price, seeing what was coming….

Paul. Gold was up about $2100, costs were much lower back when I said in Aug 2020, when share price was a fair 230p (with profits near 3 times higher than now) that if this continues “With rising gold I raise my fair price of Cey from 230 to 240, I may have to upgrade my earlier 250 by sept and 300 by Xmas. “. MAY have to. Well the facts changed and as Keynes said “when the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir”. Costs are a stunning 50% higher and gold 10% lower, so profit per ounce down from maybe $1200 to $450. We all non plus ed and wrong footed apart from maybe Mr Decker by the unforeseen wall collapse and all that ensued. Since it happened I have been sadly pretty right. Let’s hope costs begin to fall!

Just Google YouTube sharesoc Tharisa, or this might work https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=youtube+sharesoc+tharisa&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-gb&client=safari#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:7d3b8df4,vid:mc6dhCWd5Zg

Slp down 7% today, they deserve to fall faster than us without the chromium to help pay for PGM losses

Anyone know why Aclara has fallen from 56 to 36 in the last week, Hoc still retains a sizeable chunk and we are left with shares worth less than had to pay taxman

They only need to give workforce notice of when they will stop being paid. The company have made it quite clear there is no legal cover for operations to continue and they could be told to stop anytime now if not repermitted

Moneyman and Mike, well I just reinvested £10k of the dividend back in Tharisa at 70p, it may go down a lot further but ultimately should be worth more plus when I get this gloomy it is normally an encouraging sign

Yes apart from Chromium demand is rising and never predicted chromium prices would fall. however, PGM demand looks very much like it will be lower, esp rh, when Karo comes on stream tho maybe you are right and despite that PGM prices will have recovered with wars mine closures and the unforeseen reducing production, or biggest ever economic boom meaning despite Bev taking increasing market share, overall market grow so fast that ICE doesn’t decline.

Moneyman. Did you listen to Phoevos latest presentation, Vulcan has sadly not worked as promised and will likely never do as expected, so the recovery figure will only rise a little from here. Still better than nothing as should end at 80% recovery. This quarter should be good, it is the forward guidance that might be a bit problematic for the share price. Ian I just don’t trade as I seem to get it wrong so I just hold for the very long term and in the very long term this is one of the best managed mines plus as Moneyman says it is currently a great chromium/PGM mix though Karo will reduce the chromium importance

Tornado slightly disagree on the reason, I think it is because real interest rates are rising again, now around 2% in the USA on the 10 year TIPS, the norm for calculating, and many investors see this rising further putting pressure on gold. The whole sector is down on anticipation of this, though investors may be right or wrong predicting the future, but that is what markets do

Well Professor Tharisa post weekly figures on Twitter every Monday. I think this week must have been wrong as Mike suggests at $1523 for Tharisa and $1335 for Karo, so maybe you are thanking the corrected price posted on Tuesday which was over $100 lower? I for your info made it $1409 and $1301 yesterday and I make it $1372 and $1287 today. Whatever it is dire, as I have been posting for over the last year, and to many’s annoyance, this was very foreseeable, never believe what you read from analysts as have vested interest and also probably don’t know the share as well as us, covering so many. We seem to be accelerating towards capitulation, and I still see rh halving or more as the price overshoots. On the plus side rh is now only 30% of tharisa basket and 15% at Karo, with platinum now being biggest at Tharisa, good, and Palladium at Karo, not so good. Also goodish is other miners will be driven out of business, while hopefully we should survive especially if China has a stimulus and chromium turns back up again to cover PGM losses and Karo investment, and maybe if we mothball Karo, which as someone else pointed out here already has a negative value in the share price, becoming increasingly negative by the day and still needing a lot more of our cash, plus of course cutting the dividend. However once we are out the other side, which will take a few years, we could be considerably higher albeit with lower dividends en route. Just to add I am a long term holder not a trader or shorter, I tell it as I see it and even tho share price may halve I feel too late for me to get out and if I sell the turnaround will happen immediately! I know others of you continually see a PGM turnaround but with ice production falling, why till world production falls? Please don’t shoot the messenger

Inmacukada closure will be during half 2 so that it hasn’t yet doesn’t mean one thing or another. Pallancta is being done by Hochschild as now losing us $10 for every ounce mined!!!

Thanks Mike, this is quite interesting https://cleantechnica.com/2023/03/09/the-global-ice-industry-cliff-is-here/

Of course it may be quite wrong but it suggests ICE world sales near halving between 2017 and 2026 with that fall accelerating now. However as long as chrome prices stay up we can watch as rivals are forced to close hopefully reducing world production. The fly in the ointment remains Karo just now. Anyway we shall see. Finally , and also of course, this is a Tharisa board but these macro moves it seems to me are what are most affecting the share price now and will continue to do so as seem secular.

Freedom forUall. I think worry is not 2023 that will be great but 2024. Share price is anticipating PGM losses then though as wisely pointed out in the longer term mines will close (a lot to reduce supply to meet reduced demand, and platinum and palladium prices will have to rise as rh tumbles for at least some mines to make money) and we will hopefully be left standing particularly as loss making PGM’s will just become an extra cost in chromium production. The great thing is profits can fall 5 fold and leave us on a reasonable PE at this kind of share price, (unless price falls 5 fold to keep the crazy low PE).

Mike you say you are tolerant with one hand and then “ what I do not like is that you are not willing to accept facts and throw out incorrect information without justification. “

This is from today’s FT, many on other boards consider it just another provider of fake news, tarnished by Bannon and Trump successful propaganda)while their conspiracy theories are their truth, however I would hope the bright and knowledgable people here might in part think there is maybe just something in this from todays FT that might influence THS profit and share price however annoying to you:

“Manufacturing activity has contracted in China for the third consecutive month, adding to pressure on Beijing’s policymakers to tackle a slowdown across the world’s second-largest economy. The country’s vast property sector, which accounts for more than a quarter of activity, is in a prolonged slowdown, while youth unemployment has surpassed 20 per cent and trade is falling against a weaker global economic backdrop. Exports shrank 7.5 per cent year on year in May.”

Also in today’s FT full electric vehicles (BEV] now make up 24% (!!) of Chinese sales and rising fast. Imagine PGM world production stays constant or even falls a bit but demand particularly of rh takes a tumble - China is after all now the world’s biggest vehicle market and others are following suit.

Now rather than just explaining the minutiae of THS output and costs (albeit very useful and much appreciated, thanks) do say more about what you think about the macro position which to my mind matters as much or more, and the above FT info effects on THS selling prices and why you think I am so wrong, and many think I am an unjustified pessimist who should be blocked. Let’s have an intelligent discussion even debate about where different people see this share price going, of whom some have been more right than others, even if annoyingly so, over the last year or two. Should the FT be blocked as well for telling an uncomfortable truth. Thanks all for brilliant insights and thoughts as I really appreciate all thoughts and contributions as they make me think.

Thanks Mike, I just wish the share price would agree with you!

Rh is down another 20% in just a week

With mining inflation and the further falls even since Monday, PGM break even is very close if not here.

Chromium as said is a brilliant saviour but already down 10% and with Chinese slowdown and potential world recession, likely in my view to continue its descent. The first quarter was great in China but the economy has been slowing and looks to be poised to fall further especially as property buckles.

The problem is if both continue to fall PGM losses will mount and chromium profits reduce. All at a time of heavy borrowing and investment.

Hence our share price. If things pan out as I expect in 2024 it won’t be great for THS, with Karo losses coming into play too.

As a matter of interest why do you think the share price is so low if 2024 profits are likely to hold up? And thanks for your tolerance!

Mike, such a shame when others were so intolerant and rude or even blocked me for suggesting that we’d get to where we are today and worse, so saying share price looks forward. Therefor all the detailed predicting for 2024 and a super low pE and great profits was a bit of a pointless excercise without taking proper account of the most important metric that had been falling two for years, the price we sell PGM for . This fall has been accelerating, now we are already in the realm of losses on PGM at basket around $1400 on Tharisa and $1300 on Karo. And still falling fast especially with China slowdown and more secular huge China ev switch. The worse thing is chromium is falling too, despite the insults to me on mentioning the Chromium99 price on investing.com, that is actually a proxy for the direstion and chromium is continuing to fall, though still making hefty profits but falling . But the biggest problem here is we are hitting big debt for Karo just as we head into making losses. Presumably if this continues Karo will have to be paused and our dividend cut as I have every confidence in the management making it through this (note reread this post. in 2 years). And sorry to caro on but just so annoying that this, which used to be such an intelligent and informed board, has become another that only allows rampers or at least those who say profits and share price shoudl rise while they steadily fall. Of course I would like nothing more than this reversing but it is hard fighting a two year secular trend