Member Info for Sotolo

…apart from Hoc being mainly a gold miner now

Steve, I think you may have accidentally misread my post, I didn't say when your post have nothing to with Centamin but when they have anything to do with Centamin, however tangential and that you should not be dissed, so no need to diss me! Peace to all. All the best

Silver is down nearly 10% in a month increasing the losses on mining it by around 30%. Partly explains the large 15% tumble in a couple of weeks in our share price. Luckily a third of our silver is hedged at around $26, from memory. Dark, I don't really trust the likes of Zerohedge when they say silver is the wrong price, it is the price where buyers and sellers equal out, many are worried about lower investment demand and China economic fallout. However what the market fails to realise is that Hoc is increasingly a gold producer with a smaller and smaller amount of silver. As Tornado suggests, the gold hedge seems to have been done at the right time tho from memory it doesn't come into effect till next year. Hoc may not be good at mining but they seem excellent at reading the tops of the market to buy their hedges - which of course have been very necessary as, even with the hedge, Pallancata is making hefty losses on each ounce of silver mined, and we have a lot of cash to find and interest to pay while developing Maria Rosa till it starts mining next year.

Repression, thanks and jus so, Messrs Cowichan Jones and Bond all have points of view, Cowichan might stop dissing Bond and Jones, when their posts have anything to say about their view on Centamin’s direction, however tangential, including the economy and of course any influencers on the gold price, and equally Cowichan’s posts such as the one on Evergrand are relevant as a Chinese economic slump would be relevant to gold and centamin. It is important to have many different views, so thanks again Repression. It has been wonderful that historically this board, unlike so many, has mostly avoided the school yard tho previously both Mr Tibbs and I have been driven off, so we have had moments like this but shrugged them off. Incidentally I visited the Freddie Mercury sale at Sotheby’s where there were some of his fabulous…golden flip flops. - will we ever get ours….

Biggest shareholder is the family based in South Africa but shares held by a Cyprus company. Other large shareholder is Chinese

Mr T, I think this share is dependent on the real gold price, gold's much as it was 3 years ago but inflation has been 20%, therefore profit form gold even at a flat aisc is half, as is the share price very roughly, plus a little more for the reduced percentage of profit now paid out in dividend. So when gold rises in real terms I expect so shall we, and if it falls so shall we. We will be helped a bit by increasing ounces and falling real terms aisc, but we have been holding up lately surprisingly well on the expectation of these. So imho baring a great new discovery it is mostly the gold price we are gambling on here, now the ship is steadied.

Shareholders holding 10% or more

Medway Developments Limited 111 627 006 4

Rance Holdings Limited 40 548 241 1

Shareholders holding 5% or more

Fujian Wuhang Stainless Steel Co., Limited 19 419 920

Maaden Invest Limited

So the family are much the biggest, then the hines and Middle East mining co

Yup and platinum and palladium gently declining both down around 10% in 3 weeks, so the basket is still falling faster than chromium rise sadly. Most annoying is that we are now around 2/3rds or more profit from chromium, but we wil return to being a mainly PGM miner when Karo comes on line. If this fall continues I wonder if it will, or be mothballed? Finally extraordinary to me that SLP produces about half the PGM we do and valued about half of THS, apparently completely ignoring our highly profitable chromium

Yes Tornado, very reminiscent of Mrs Thatcher’s son Mark, amazing how the cleverest politicians have a blind side when it comes to their children. However unless it becomes a big election issue and enable Trump or De Santis to win I can’t see it having much effe t on Centamin, nor of course this board as Mizolgit points out, but gives us old men some fun

Actually Steve I make it with 10% inflation and 4% divi taxed unless in ISA it is about a 7% real erosion of capital

Money man, the fall in PGM basket has been considerably greater than the wonderful rise in Chrome hence the lower share price,

Dark, it seems to have settled around 90p for now and rising or falling with PM prices, maybe until the report in a fortnight? I am still expecting the price to rise sooner or later to around 120p at current gold and silver price, remember we are heavily indebted just now and dependent on Inmaculada cash to pay for Maria Rosa and Pallancata whose profits are in the future.

Ps Dark I just read your figures below, seems we are on just the same page

Dark Knight, I am thrilled and happily surprised. This is not a compromise but an absolute result. All the politics that hit us and made our share quarter is now through. Borrowing has become high and production fallen and costs up, but this does not justify the share still having more than halved. It won’t be an easy next 12 months but Inmaculada should be churning out the cash to pay for Maria Rosa and Pallancata exploration. Then we should be a 400k oz a year mine, not far short of Centamin and with similar costs, but getting on for a third of the value. My view is the share price should be around 110 or 120, but let’s see the results in a couple of weeks. And if gold and silver were to pick up a bit I should hoe for 150. I wickedly added a few more this am.

Wow!

Cowichan, I respect your opinion, that you are already out and suggest the rest of us scarper to gold miners in countries in better jurisdictions. Well many of these are actually in African countries from Tanzania to Mali, which have proved at the least problematic, and even South Africa that looks far more dangerous than Egypt, or Argentina with its exchange controls, Peru with its left wing government that made Hoc tumble, Columbia with its insurgents, Chile with its increasing taxes on miners, problematic permitting etc etc. I would feel far safer with Centamin and a company that has not had its tax/royalties changed, mining in a peaceful out of the way area, in a country with an unpleasant leader but good for the company. It seems very fairly valued now, so there seems more likelihood of upside than down, in this long life near tier one miner, even if t is a shame that a main attraction, the high dividend, has reduced from most of the profit to min 30% tho actually a bit more. And a shame that they continue to pour money down African holes in the ground for their own aggrandisement, but overall it seems to me this is one of the safest gold miners to invest in rather than as you suggest super dangerous. So I am with Sisi Imho

Tornado. Remember near 20% inflation over last couple of years so $1900 hedge is near a $1500 hedge back then. I really wonder why they have done it reducing income by $25 an ounce. Overall miners are usually better at mining than timing the market, unless lenders or poor balance sheets force a hedge.

Tornado, it means they can sell 240,000 oz or just over half their output at $1900 in 12 months time and the counterparty can buy 240000 oz in 12 months at $1900. If price stays above $1900 it is worthless to us, if it falls below $1900 we can sell those ounces at that price, however far gold falls. bBeing a paper option it means we can sell gold at whatever price over the next year and then on the last day claim the difference between $1900 and the lower gold price if that is the way gold goes. The option will also rise in value as gold falls towards $1900 and could be sold early. It will not have been that expensive. However it is slightly surprising for miners to spend money hedging unless needed to enable them to continue paying losses and of course if they continue doing it is an extra cost. I wonder why Centamin thinks it worth the money or if they are really gloomy on the gold price. It is quite surprising how bad miners are at predicting the gold price though not as bad as analysts. At least it doesn’t reduce the upside other than the cost of doing it, unlike Hochschild who yesterday said they had hedged to sell around 2100/$2200, guaranteeing them this price,, a very different and more expensive view, and necessary to them with big debts.

Not bad results, decent output and nice aisc, but dividend down another 20% much as expected and half what it used to be so no longer a high yield share (at least at this share price) as we know.

Here’s a thought

When Maria Rosa is at full pelt, and IFFF Inmaculada permit is solved, production should be close to that of Centamin and costs similar, but Hoc valuation is only a third.

Of course Hoc debt is high, and there are the debt servicing costs, and there is the new hedge but that could be a benefit.

So even if Hoc should be valued a third lower than Cey that would still mea a doubling of the share price…IF