Member Info for Sotolo

These results don’t look bad to me and I would be bold buy Muri’s holding sold yesterday if had the cash and bravery.

Production is up slightly on the last quarter, if still quite a bit lower than historically, overall debt at over $200m is very high but as expected for necessary Mara Rosa investment to make up for collapsed Pallancata.

At least we have saved a bit of cash having had to reduce exploration at Inmaculada pending permitting. Yet again the board suggest the conclusion will not be binary, and they are negotiating a compromise which will result in increased costs/lower production/less exploration but the big question how much.

There are more hedges but at gold prices above record high, efficacy of them all depends on inflation, ie if it continues high then aisc could rise at 10%+ a year meaning hedges turn out less than today’s price in real terms, but if inflation is rapidly controlled could be good - Hoc has a good track record of hedging and with debt so very high can’t afford to ride out gold price falls as well as other so makes sense. And as Tornado says probably necessary for the banks, just a big shame they hit peak borrowing and gearing ata. Time of peak interest rates but hen Hochschild have never been lucky, wonder if that is partly why Bustamente has given up?

Thanks so much, you are quite right, it has just popped up, wonder what they will say this time about Inmaculada, scary!

Razor, you are right, the truth, especially in these times, is horribly tiresome, from how the NHS is failing, to greater inequality, poor productivity and falling standards of living, to Centamin’s fallen profits. However if costs can be cut at all despite inflation our shares would rise, or if gold rose $300 we would get that 40% rise you think we deserve, or a combination of both.. Curing NHS, inequality, productivity etc might be more challenging and will continue making most of us rather tired of it all. Thank you for the good cheer and thoughtful words as always

Razor I would love a 40% higher share price but why do you think we deserve one? Our historic PE has been around 12 or 13. Our valuation is £1.085m. Profit should be around £85m I reckon, at current cost and prices, so PE of 13 which seems spot on the norm?

Last week the chief operating officer, who must know a thing or two, sold 75000 shares. I suppose the big question, as I have asked here before, is whether rh bottoms at $4000 or heads down below $1000 which would obviously be a bit disastrous for THS. I guess Michelle is worried by the latter, particularly if it goes into next year with reduced demand because of BEVs, so she has taken a large chunk off the table. We should know the rh answer within the next week or two but I guess on down is sadly likelier. Her other worry may be falling Chinese demand for chromium. Or she may just need cash and think around 83p the best she is going to get for now….

Well I thought it was this week for Q2, where do get next week, on some sites now says aug16 tbc and on Hoc site now says next results are interims at v end of Aug?? Last year Q2 was 22 July? May be they are having a challenge auditing them or just a muddle publicising them? Anyone have a clue….

Cowichan, I don’t think the 50% profit split plus extra 2.5% royalty is that bad, many miners pay that much in tax, and often those taxes rise and rise

Today’s FT: “Mitsubishi halts production in China as car sales plunge” maybe part of the explanation for plunging PGM’s. On another note if the PGM slump was to continue to fall our PE next year might be considerably higher than suggested and many times what Tamesis says.

Yes, sterling dividend will be lower (if/as sterling gold price is lower)

Again thank you so very much

Tornado our share price is in sterling and we take divis in sterling so it is the sterling gold price that should affect the sterling share price and that has fallen in less than two months for 1610 to 1490 and in less than a month from 1535 to 1490, remember profits fall by about 3 times the gold price fall as costs only fall a little in sterling with its rise. So our share price is doing well given the gold price is where it was 3 years ago but costs are so much higher

Yes of course, I was just embarking on calculating which will take a while,, however given we have to do all that work I thought Mike might have come up with some rough and ready approximations already if you hadn’t done so

Nimrod it is not holding cash without a plan, all and more is going on Karo to near double PGM output, the company is suggesting overall PGM ounces will more than double

However I thought Mike, if not you, might be able to work out at current chrome and basket price roughly where break even should be.as various on this board project profit by subtracting costs from income. Thank you

Thanks so much, and us on same basis?

This won’t affect hoc. Although sad only 165 cases and they had a similar scare in 2019 (pre Covid). However, today’s rising gold price is nice, especially if we get a permit to mine and sell the stuff

Mike, what do you reckon the PGM aisc for the big 4 is, how much do they have other metals ie anglo, imps, sibanye, nord nickel (which says it all) and what is ours. Presumably they have deep pockets?

Thanks again, Mike for your informed knowledge and courtesy in sharing it, much appreciated

Ps nice to see Rh bounce this am off that $4000 line in the sand on the same day as the figure, let’s hope it is more than a bounce of a cat…

Yes it was good cash flow despite chromium production being slightly down, but these results are from when the basket averaged just under $1700, so with the basket now down by near $400, this quarter will be very different. The company has been talking up PGM prices all through this fall quoting the analysts’ concensus which has been invariably wrong. The truth is no one knows, but I have reckoned down though I don’t know if rh has found its $4000 floor or the alternative of sub $1000 will happen . So nothing here to affect the share price looking forward other than a bit of disappointment on chromium figures, and Vulcan production, which we know about from Phoebos’ last presentation, but market may not have clocked, and increasing China chromium stocks as demand falls. Still we are much better than SLP!