Member Info for Sotolo

The bid is now worth 160p again this eve, it will be decided by large investors and as Steve Jones points out the market is saying they are highly likely to accept. I am quite pleased to get a price higher than I expected before the bid, wanting to realise a 6 figure capital gain from Cey before 30th Oct, but I am not bothering to vote as will be out with my trading shares before it is decided. With the ISA shares, which I shall keep I feel there is as much likelihood of Anglo rising with gold as Cey considering Anglo has better management in my opinion.

Yes Autonomy, I was testing to see, I am still hanging on….nervously….the bid now worth £1.59 and share price hardly lower

Exactly the same Copperman thought it is getting very tempting, the shares seem very liquid and 1.582 offered even for 200k shares at a time. I will do mine in tranches and before the budget in my trading accounts. I plan to hang on to ISA shares till the end as expect Anglo to pick up then and sell later in year or next. I will lose 15% on dividends but expect post merger Anglo share price uplift to outweigh this

My question too Cooperman. We actually already know that tomorrow’s figures will be good but somewhat irrelevant as if Cey profits set to rise 10% that will only put 2% or so on Anglo profits so all now depends on gold price and if it makes Anglo recover its fall since the bid and even rise. We are also helped marginally by any fall in the pound which has been worth about 3p to us in they last week or two. I think I shall wait till tomorrow though getting rather attractive at this price.

.... and we could certainly do with another £5m share buyback, with such a very thinly traded share it made a huge difference, and of course its ending has led to quite a fall back

15% if UK tax payer

Thanks as ever Mike for your wisdom

With that cash another £5m share buyback would be very useful, the least one raised the share price by over 50%, but it has given up over half of the rise as the buyback drew to an end. So PLEASE another one THARISA thanks

Mike I know Ilja is very bullish of an imminent rise but why would you expect the pgm price to rise with increasing ev take up in China, and chrome to rise with the big China slowdown and ensuing fall off of stainless steel use just now?

Actually the US imposes a 30% withholding tax on dividends, or 15% on Uk tax payers who complete a w8ben. If held in a UK trading account this 15% will count against your UK dividend tax. However if in an ISA or SIPP you will just lose that 15% as can’t ve put against tax those pay as they don’t pay any. Therefore holding US shares in an ISA or SIPP means you lose 15% of the dividend which you don’t with UK quoted shares.

Yes was always going to take a few goes to break through 2000. Lets hope today is the day

At the current Anglo price the bid is worth 153p, tomorrow morning Cey will probably only be a percent below that so the market strongly believes it will go ahead as is. This is till probably around 20% premium to what the share would be worth without it

Yes Mr Gnome, we killed somewhere between 25,000 and 250,000 civilians in a single night in Dresden. War is a vile business and seems extraordinary we humans go on doing it. The stealing of Ukrainian children, the killing and raping of pacifist partygoers at a festival, of antiwar kibbutzniks, of all the civilians in Gaza, humanity has always thought frightening civilians into turning over their governments will win wars, only they can't and many still love teams and fighting for them. Anyway quite right, better not to take sides on this board and one of the problems of modern life is how mobs don't try to understand the other side from Leave and Remain to Vax and antivax to wars now, I try (sometimes with difficulty) to understand all views inc Putin and Trump and even the Ayatollahs Kim and Zhi. Most people around the world are deep down similar, they love and fear, they want freedom to raise families, most women want freedom just to be. Now quite how this all bear on the price of gold, well as posted earlier Trump should raise it further, and so should increased nastiness in the Middle East so we have to hope it rises as a way of protecting money as the opportunity cost of holding it falls. I am sadly still holding my Cey which are suffering as the outlook for fast lower interest rates falls and the Middle East fails to explode further plus the Chines stock market soars sucking out god investors there. But all this will I expect sadly turn again

Yes indeed Gnome. The Financial Times headline on Monday said: Donald Trump would raise US debt by twice as much as Kamala Harris…non-partisan Committeee for a Responsible Budget warns of heightened risk of an eventual financial crisis” and continues…under Harris the ration of debt to GDP would rise by 8%, under Trump 17%. So it sounds like a Trump win would somewhat more disastrous for the world economy if they do as they say though Trump thus much better for gold as we all suffer. Of course you are right that neither is great, but one is the 50% lesser devil so fingers crossed for the world rather than the gold price, which should rise a bit even with Harris methinks.

Fine to hold Anglo in Sipps Isas etc, however US dividends come with tax already paid and you do not get that back in a Sipp or an ISA so dividends not tax free. So long term better to hold uk companies if big dividend players

Gnome. For once the opposite, if Trump wins it will probably be worse for the economy and better for gold, with the huge disruption in world trade that is promised: from today’s Sunday Times: “Edmund Harriss, the chief investment officer at Guinness Global Investors, said that according to one budget model ‘Harris’s approach would raise the debt by $1-2 trillion while Trump’s would increase it by $5-6 trillion’. …Trump’s wilder promises include removing the independence of the central bank, sacking the head of the financial regulator and maintaining debt/GDP above 125 per cent. None of this would be good for economic stability.”

Steve why should it hit 120, it was around that price before bid announced when gold was 2506, it is now 6% higher which should mean around share price ie around 140 (many rivals have done better) plus there are the good figures on oz and costs not counted in so a fall to 135/140 seems more likely to me especially;y when dust settles and should actually be higher

black ops, yes you automatically get the anglo shares and small amount of cash if this is voted through. if it is not voted through i would expect centamin to fall to 135-140 (the gold price has risen since it was announced and better figures) so about 10% downside.

if it does go through i expect the anglo price to recover after, plus a bit more as gold has risen since the offer. i think anglo not overpaying for cey as market seems to think, and a good deal so up 10% at current gold price

i think likelier to go through

i hope anglo may have to slightly sweeten the deal though not counting on it

thus i am holding for now but each to her or his own guesswork and calculation on back of a *** packet

finally just to add a lot of these shares are being bought as arbitrage, so holders likely to agree.

Paul that was in 2020 when profits were 60% higher, and dividends near 300% higher, as costs were much lower and before the wall. What I said back then in summer 2020 was as things stood Cey share price could be 300 by Xmas., with the caveat, I stick to gold getting to a bit above 2100 and then having a correction before going further. I did not expect the wall and the profit tumble, nor the coming inflation I saw in that post to take a couple of years and then gold to take another couple to soar, but soar it has now. When gold corrected it was heavily compounded in our falling share price by our mine reducing ounces, increasing costs which heavily hit profits and then the policy of lower dividend which as said massacred them. Although it took far longer for inflation and then the resulting gold increase to happen, what is so bad for the share price recently that I couldn’t have foreseen is that despite the big rise in gold our our unexpectedly fallen ounces have yet to fully recover, the far increased costs haven’t fallen back. Of course if these went back where they were and profits rose back to where they were in real terms ie over double then the share price would be over double, where I expected. Sadly our management haven’t managed this so time to give Anglo a go? Sad

…but what will she sing?