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Mike I am not worried about production number but pgm and chrome prices. When I suggested Rh might fall below $10000 I got lots of criticism for even positing it. Now what if Rh falls below $5000 which is perfectly possible. Even at the rates today Tharisa basket is already below $1800 and karo below $1600. Assuming these fall a bit more and chromium doesn’t rise further which is what I expect then second half will be lower. We cannot be scientific on prices, there are as many people who think they will rise and a platinum etc shortfall plus same chromium, and many who think they will fall as economies fall back,but will they and who knows? So I stay invested, not for the coming profit I cannot really know,nor what the share price will do, but a great management who are growing this company mainly out of their own cash flow. And I for one hugely appreciate your numbers and ways of looking at it as well as other contributors here who are so tolerant of each other and so helpful to me
I was saying PGM price is now near 20% down on that in these latest figures which are for the last 6 month reporting period. Chromium is only slightly up on the average in these figures. Therefore if current prices are maintained profits will be lower second half. I also said nice figures for last half and dividend. I have also said I continue to hold as see great future for these shares particularly given the Greta management. Sorry if you don’t like the figures and only want one view. As said that is sadly Britain today
Nice results and divi, on pgm ave $2216, but basket is now near 20% lower so generating about half the pgm profit in coming half as long as average stays up here. Plus costs are soaring. However pgm oz were down so their recovery will help and hopefully chrome will stay up so with luck second half profits down only a quarter. Market still seems worried at what is coming.
Thanks Mike, Moneyman and Ragnar, your posts are so useful. Ian B, don’t shoot the messenger, I was super optimistic when PGM prices were rising, and more lately have most sadly been right predicting falling share price as the opposite happens - I remember some being furious when I suggested that rh could fall below $10000 - and trying to find reasons for that. However I am not a trader. I only accumulate, sadly for now, as I take a very long term view and on that it looks undervalued unless ehicle electrification is able to find a way of shooting through the third world. Plus I have great long term faith in Phebos and family On the PE front Yes of course the share price is absurdly low in terms of the latest profits but it is expecting those profits to fall. Many now blame the messengers, the fourth estate that helps uphold democracy and call the powerful to account is under attack by the public, whipped on by the powerful. However I find both sides of arguments are so helpful including explanations for the share price action unlike so many boards where all poster just say their share should be higher and some conspiracy is holding it down rather than an excess of sellers over buyers. So thanks all as ever. Sadly the PGM fall looks like it has a fair way to go so down before up. Now shoot me.
Feynzz, boards like markets and democracies need both views, there is no point in surrounding yourself with like minded opinions, tho most sadly do now. I stay because I will be happy with a 2.5c interim, which is 3% just for this interim, and because the PE is so very low it has taken account of the lower profits coming in my view. I hope that Mike is right, but the great thing about this board is that it tolerates debate. With mining, a small change in demand or supply can greatly affect the price. The big question for Karo and half of Tharisa is if PGM’s continue to fall dramatically because of the small fall in demand, so Mike’s posited 10% is much exceeded. As frequently said, and just now, I remain a holder while expecting lower profits and a lower share price as I am hopeless at timing the market but have great faith in the family and them riding this out so expect the shares to be double or treble…..one day…..just no idea which! In the meantime profits will become nasty especially if Chinese demand means chromium turns
Presumably with PGMs still falling second half NPAT will be considerable lower, and Karo may be finished when loss making?
Mike you recently suggested 3c and I suggested 2.5c, let’s see and let’s hope your raised 3.25c is right
Salsa, I think you are looking through the rear view mirror. Karo is pretty much all pgm and Tharisa is half PGM, so once Karo is on stream 2/3 of current profit will come from PGM, and the PGMk are very highly geared at these sort of prices for us, so if the sort of falls predicted below, with electrification worries, come about and more the PE will be nothing like 2 or 3 unless of course the share price continues down with them, as we head to much smaller PGM profit… or loss, I think this worry is weighing heavier than the politics on our share price
Yes Moneyman let’s hope so, however as said frequently I expect a lower dividend or 2 or 2.5c, just as the final was 20% down a couple of months ago, just because THS pays out around 17% of profit and profit will be lower (pgm profit down perhaps 80% from peak and chromium doesn’t make up for it, not does platinum and palladium current rise make up for rhodium continual fall). However let us see, and let us hope you are right!
Paul, one decent result including return to ounces profits and dividends of yore would shoot us up but I can’t see that happening soon, ie till we get on top of costs plus we now have a management that has said it will pay lower dividends even with higher profits so they can sink more in new self agrandising holes in the ground in W Afica etc. So yes one great results would do it, but not coming soon. Have to rely on the gold price
Ps the final in March was already down 20% on March 2022 due to falling earnings, the interim is likely to be down more, and the final next year even more at this rate
If you read our posts we expect the dividend to be lower because we think earnings per share will be lower as Chromium rise nowhere near PGM fall,
Mike, so you are expecting a full halving of full year dividend from 9c to 4-5c. Sounds about right and reduces the yield to 4% even at this much lower share price tho still a price of only about 4? On another note rh is rapidly approaching its 3rd April low. Any chance this could prove a double bottom or will it be on down
Interesting today when rhodium down another chunk butpgm basket actually up as rh has fallen from 60% an is now down to 38% of basket, and Platinum and Palladium rise outweighing its fall - if that could go on. Even more important in Karo when rh down to 18% of potential profit at this price.
Yes profits and divi down about 40%, share price about the same. However the bigger question is going forward as at current prices the second half will be lower than the first half, so presumably the shares are likely to drift lower. The share price has felt too low for ages but sadly profits keep falling, to catch up with what it anticipates. I imagine we will get a hit later in the month when reduced divi announced, even at this share price going forward yield will be down.
Usually announced with H1 figures at end of May for payment in June, wonder how much it will be down with the lower profits my guess near halved but not quite
Rh now 10% down in a week. Also viz chromium THS have a new way of presenting figure next week so not so easy to compare to previous tweets, it appears to be up but may actually be down because of this, as elsewhere the metal is still falling, we shall have to wait to compare THS the figure over the next few weeks if they remain in the same format
You are right, 1st quarter results usually come in late April but nothing in the investors calendar on the Hoc site that I can see. Maybe now they are barely making money and all depends on exactly what permissions are or aren’t given for Inmaculada they just aren’t bothering as with the annuals that were months late…and why? Sad