Member Info for Sotolo

Gold investor, I have never traded Hoc, I just hold and add long term mainly out of sentimentality to old family relations albeit distant that I was brought up hearing about with their metals in S America. I hold 592943, not much different to a year ago or two or three, just always a little more, you can think what you like, disbelieve who you like and whatever conspiracy theories take your fancy. Quite simply I haven’t in any way created the current fall, or could I, I have just been right about it but do not like to trade as then I expect to be wrong. And particularly as although I think likelier to fall the view is very opaque just now and I do not wish to be caught without them. Now I think gold is falling as real long term interest rates (10 year tips) seem to be rising, what is your reasoning for why gold should be rising before real interest rates start falling again, tea leaves? What is your correlation, the inverse of real interest rates seems a very strong historic one.

Yes, but I imagine further down to go tho hopefully will hold above £2 and snap back up if/ when gold one day snaps up again; however probably not till real interest rates start falling again so maybe well into 2025, as said all a bit unknowable now so holding

Why a bottom here?

Gold investor and onedb I admire your conviction and optimism, as said I haven’t a clue just now but would imagine it is down a bit further then who knows…. The good thing is our company itself is in a much better position especially the ability to pay down debt so when the hedge and collare are through we will have the ability to make decent profits if the price stays around here or rises, and to survive better if it falls back

Yes well like me no one knows what the gold price will do. This is a particularly difficult time after such a big and very rapid rise and with the expectation of interest rate falls lessening

3bear, you are quite right imho. The problem is experts move in herds, read Superforcasting and you will see a collection of informed amateurs together are much better than the experts. ie us!

Mr Bomd, I moved from Barclays to ii, so much better, I got the cash last week and the shares are happily tucked up in my isa

I have sadly never been on the short side, I am a long term holder who adds, even a few more with the Centamin cash last week and have far too many, 50% of my savings now but also for sentimental reasons. It is certainly a very flighty share. I don’t sell, even when it is falling sadly not even when Edouardo sold around this price before the new left wing government as I look very long. As said just now I just don’t know which way gold will go but I look at longer term and what could be a great 2025/26 for the company so I am as usual holding here, I don’t expect the dividend to be that large maybe a couple of percent but will be great for the share for it to return

I am glad you ‘feel’ that, now is one of those times I haven’t a clue. The real interest rate 10 year tips has risen from 1.5% to 2% since Oct, this is historically high and it has the biggest correalation with gold, gold moving inversely to it as the opportunity cost of holding the metal waxes and wanes. My crystal ball is particularly and unusually hazy just now which way 10year tips will go. So having been a big bull over the last year I am now agnostic. Of course Hoc will restart the dividend soon which should give the shares a fillip but against that profits for this year may not be as high as some expect due to the large hedge and collar.

Ii says they will come today.

Is this the last post

Before all decamp to the Anglo board (bugle sound)

Two exceptions

I first bought these when called Uruguay Minerals at over £3 and my long experience of over 20 years holding is that it generally falls with occasional blips up. I keep it for the massive capital loss to offset against my second home when I sell it. I expect that loss will grow but now just amuses me.

Wise bobliz, I think your hands should get quite warm before you plunge in

Have you got your figures right, $20m for 1.2% would put a value of $1,640,000,000?? Is my maths way out? If not then this is an utterly extraordinary valuation for a mine that at present and recent prices would never turn a profit, a mine weaker than the Tharisa mine itself but valued at near 10 times more. Something must be amiss here, can anyone or Ilja put me right. Thanks

Sadly yes, with the Chinese slowdown and anticipated tariffs weighing on this

Your crystal ball may be cloud Bond, but I am not sure if Live from the vault’s works. Hang on Bobliz say my tea leaves

No divi tax, just cgt when you sell the Anglo, use the Centamin purchase price less the 12.5 cents cash

Not a great start, the Centamin equivalent is now £1.50, however well worth it if because of peace with Hezbollah, or gold losing out to the attraction of other assets that seem worth more with Trump

This board dies, Centamin is no longer quoted and no longer has a price, you can see the Anglo price and join the chat on the Anglogold board

And an exceedingly good morning to you Mr Bond, good to see this board picking up a little

Subaru is how apple spells Subaru, sorry