Member Info for Somekindofnut

When Ithaca was trading at its 52 week low, traders were forecasting Iran was about to flood world with oil and Brent was going under $10. So market was pricing a likelihood Ithaca would go bust at that stage. ie possibility Ithaca shares were worthless. This was irrational imo, but anyway oil price has recovered and share price now reflects that Ithaca will now survive and actually thrive. At 52 weei low, FPF1 was sitting in a shipyard. But it is now out of shipyard and seems likely to be operating soon. If you compare Ithaca market value to the likely amounts of cash amounts of cash FPF1 and Ithaca should soon deliver I think you'll conclude that there's more upside.

Huge volume yesterday - 4m traded. IMO this was a break out for share price. The shake back below £1 yesterday brought in strong buying. So I think it's likely that any chance to buy under a quid will be snapped up now. Will soon see if Im right, although only half day of trading today I think.

Its just market nerves imo. Bit of a rise, then pull back. Inventory data coming up 4pm.

Doubler: Kraken rig used Keppel Shipyard in Singapore. So same yard you had problems with I guess. Rig is being towed through Mediterranean just now.

Mostyn, I don't know Equest as well as you, but I can see they are in similar situation on verge of doubling in production with new rig. Sorry, bit off topic but interesting to compare the two companies. Im watching then to see if Enquest rig is delayed again amongst other things. This is what guy on advfn said : "Also Singapore is ok for construction work but the technical side of things is not what they do. Thats why every offshore hook up takes far longer than expected as cabling etc has to be put right to make equipment work. If the Kraken fpso is delayed, buying opportunity maybe. Somekindofdonut. I like that. The wife would say Somekindofdonuthing.lol.

Mostyn another poster said about drilling on moon. That wasn't misleading because it wasn't believable. Your comment was different because it was (somewhat) believable. Not entirely believable I agree, but if it had been more credible, then you may have caused an actual problem. Im vaguely tracking Enquests new rig as it heads from Asian shipyard to Kraken field. Behind schedule and much delayed. There was doubts when it was travelling through the Suez canal on Enquest advfn board whether its going to the oil field or off to another shipyard in Europe first. A trip to shipyard and further delay would affect Enquests price of course. Anyway I think furey is looking at Brent for March delivery (BZH17) rather than February delivery (BZG17) quoted by Maverick. It's nearly month end so 6 of one, half dozen other imho.

Mostyn, you say it was clear you were joking but I think the problem was that many people reading it didn't think so. Two people immediately after your post asked what your source was so they didn't think it was clear that it was a joke. Neither did I, big bench or it seems the moderator who removed your posts. That's at least 5 people. However what big bench posts are his opinions. If you want to post every day that you expect share price to finish down I see zero problem with that. Go for it. This is because it's quite clear that every forecast is an opinion because nobody knows the future. Saying Brent is going to $10 or $70 must be an opinion because nobody knows. But the implication from your post was that you had inside knowledge of a decision management had already made. That's different, that's a misleading statement. Misleading statements are taken very seriously by fca (unlimited fine, 7 years jail time!) and more commonly by companies protecting their reputation. 10 years ago you could get away with saying anything on shares billboards. I think its twitter that's changed things. You can say it wasn't misleading, but Ive counted at least a handful of people who don't agree. In any case this is not worth dwelling on and hope we can move on from this.

Oh dear naughty word blanked out. Filtering is working then. Lol. 🎄🎄🎄🎄🎄🎄🎄🎄🎄🎄🎄🎄🎄🎄

'Start of January' is a bit vague. Petrofac just said "January" last week in their update. Even more vague. But only days away in any case, all being well.

There's a years worth of posts. You just edit the url address to go back on desktop site. Easy when you know what your doing ;-)

Lol. Speak for yourself. I know what I'm doing.

Well yes, I think headline was Goldman change their minds again. All I would say is traders and hedge funds follow their lead quite a lot. Maybe you'll recall a poo rally or fall based on a note put out by Goldman. Sometimes they put out something bullish to push the market higher so they get a good price to short from. Or they put out a bearish note to push market lower to get a good price to go long from. Traders love the volatility and play along. People play similar games on bulletin boards though. Not as effective as they can't move the market usually. Attention seeking seems to be the bigger game on bulletin boards and you get more attention when you swear and post negatives. I wouldn't trust anyone.

Advfn says two trades of 1,022,800 went through together at 11.47 for 87p. Identified as buys cos trade was above mid price, but may be sells. Might make more sense. There's been no corrected trade of these sizes later. Even without these trades, there was another 1m of buys against 600k sells. I don't have level two, so don't really understand why we ended up flat. Rig count up out tonight. Up 12 oil rigs. But up twelve rigs in Permian. Would be no increase without Permian gain then. Capex is being thrown into Permian because stacked geology makes drilling for multiple targets attractive. Break even is lower then. But land prices soaring in Permian now, driving costs up again. So this Permian boom has limited legs imo.

Huge buying today. 5x as many buys as sells. But I think maybe the two massive buys of 1m shares at 87p maybe has held the share price at 87p. Market makers must've been working on these trades for a while. Some days even.

Petrofac updated market yesterday and they said first production is expected January: "Following sailaway of the FPF1 floating production facility in August 2016, first production from the Greater Stella Area development is now expected in January 2017." In November Petrofac had by then a good look at rig in situ and Ithaca said First Oil in January. I know a serious problem could still emerge after they refit the junction boxes, but they have even more time just now to find and fix problems. Anyway with only days until January begins, Petrofac say status is first oil in January.

Strong dollar is the problem I think. Traders bit caught out by Yellen saying theres going to be 3 interest rate rises in 2017 and are scrambling to buy dollars. Interest rate rises bad for oil buyers but wont be good for shale producers either. Shale relies on cheap finance.

Nigeria was given a bye to increase production lost to militants. Opec say they can cut even with Nigeria, Libya and Iraq adding. But I wouldn't bet Nigeria can deliver an increase. I held Seplat shares last year. This year Seplat delivered a profit, strong balance sheet and dividend. Not many oil companies can say that! The problem is Nigeria. Nigeria say they've lost $5 billion as a result of dozens of attacks this year . Things have quietened down in last 3 weeks. However situation is still unstable. It took them over 6 months to repair the Forcades export oil pipeline. And the pipelines weave through the shallow water in the swamps so they are very difficult to protect. This problem is in addition to problems with theft. Theft is easier to trace and prevent than someone planting a bomb. Im not here for the takeover- if it happens it happens. But I note BP said they are bullish on North Sea, saying they intend to double production there. So there's appetite for North Sea. Maybe Apache?They have good balance sheet. Apache is operator for Isabella prospect (50%). Ithaca 10% IIRC. Apache operates Forties field but it's long way from Isabella. Hooking up to FPF1 makes more sense. Or maybe Petrofac might be interested in upping their cut in FPF1? It might explain their delays. Lol. I don't know. Someone who works in North Sea may have better insight of companies that have synergies with Ithaca or looking to expand.