Member Info for Somekindofnut

How can you tell it's a tanker? All I see is its a 'tug or special craft' (Im on mobile).Offtake base is 2.7km from fpf1, shouldn't be tight to rig, although 2.7km isn't far. We can check if it's carrying refined products if you know the name I think.

Thanks for the reply Doubler. Lots of interest in North Sea I think.

Doubler, Do you know which asset they didn't want to sell? Is it because they want to tie it back to Andrew platform? BTW BP announced sale of some assets to Enquest today. Looks like good deal for Enquest. I don't expect BP is interested in Ithaca either because of size, but I wouldn't rule it impossible. Thoughtz: 1. BP recently said they plan to double North Sea production from 100k to 200k. This is closer to Ithaca scale. 2. President of BP North Sea wrote about stranded resources last week. 300 discoveries and 20-30 billion barrels. This is significant amount. https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/129212/bps-mark-thomas-returning-growth-north-sea/ 3. Kessog is one of largest undeveloped resources in North Sea. 100m barrels. Its just as close to Stella as Vorlich 4. Ithaca and BP will be working on Vorlich fdp right now. Two licences on Vorlich remember. Bp operate one, Ithaca tother. 5. I think plan is to tie Vorlich to FPF1 and Kessog to Andrews platform. But Kessog is high pressure, compartmentalised, tricky geology. Easier if they tied back to much closer FPF1? 6. BP's nearby ETAP platform serves 9 fields none of which would be economic individually. So it's not the size of Stella thats the issue. 7. If BP saw that buying Ithaca is not just about Ithacas current assets but also developing BPs other assets in the area like Kessog then it cant be ruled out imo. 8. FPF1 is smaller than their other platforms, rather limiting maybe, but if they are serious about stranded discoveries then maybe they need to consider smaller operations. Anyway, as I say, I think their main interest is just tying back discoveries to their existing platforms and Ithaca way too small to interest them. But not crazy idea either imo.

Saudi can't break the deal now. Why would Saudi want to sell their oil for $40 instead of $55? Shale that needed $55 poo has now hedged. More volume doesn't make up for lower prices. Eg fag packet calculator - they sell 10m barrels a day at $55, to make $550m revenue. Why break the deal, and sell 11m barrels a day at $40 to return only $440m? Even if they have to cut further to 9m barrels to support $55 ($495m), that's still far better than selling 11m at $40.

I don't think we will see $60 until there's data coming through showing Opec is following through on promises. This was just the initial compliance meeting, they didn't have a months worth of data to look at. Main thing for me however, is there's a commitment to meet regularly and some comments they will cut again if necessary. So market shouldn't in May be left wondering whether opec can organise a meeting to extend the deal. IMO this is for long term now. Currently demand for opec oil is increasing year on year so quotas arent as tricky. But eventually either from green energy or shale opec will have to decide to produce less in total. I think opec know this, so should be ready if Trump has an effect or electric cars take off or any other reason demand for opec oil falls.

Press conference finished about a minute ago: Some press covering it tweeted : *New OPEC Ministerial Committee to Meet Every 2 Months--Russian Oil Min #OPEC #OOTT ------------------- Next #OPEC, non-OPEC monitoring meeting to be held in Kuwait after March 17. Third meeting in May ahead of OPEC policy meeting #OOTT ----=---------------- #Kuwait oil min says the data will be reviewed on the 17th of each month and today they have no results for us #OOTT #OPEC ------------------- #Novak says monitoring will be based in secondary sources #OOTT #OPEC -------------------- #Kuwait oil min says when the price will go up they expect some added shale will come to the market, however demand is also increasing #OOTT ------------------- "Producers have cut oil supply by 1.5 million barrels a day, more than 80% of their collective target" #OOTT #OPEC https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-21/opec-russia-say-oil-cuts-are-deeper-and-faster-than-expected

Id miss your optimism. I dont really mind if you are right or wrong. We will get there in the end, but much better to travel when people around you have a positive frame of mind.

I think they may be waiting to get the increased cash flow so they can buy another asset in Stella area. They bought Austen field reserves for a couple of dollars a barrel. They should be able to buy more stranded reserves at similar prices. Its their stated strategy, so must be working on it imo. This would transform broker valuations.

My bad :(

Never mind. Sorry I think I used Enterprise Value in wrong way. You can't get a per share value like that.

I just use advfn. Had a look. They quote enterprise value of £1,088.59m. Market cap of £427.39m. I assume it's accurate?

"As SP runs up - you are less likely to see a take out". I don't think I agree with this. And Delia is against takeouts. Ithaca IMO will have a price they are willing to sell at. £2 maybe. This wouldn't change much as the share price moved. They just know what the business is worth and are confident they will deliver on Stella. But buyers are increasingly willing to pay £2 as the business delivers on growth. So the gap between what buyers are willing to pay and the sale price is narrowing and so a sale becomes more likely. Enterprise value of Ithaca is over £2 by the way. Also after Stella is running, business is derisked. And business is generating much more cash so a buyer would see a good return on purchase price quickly. ie they'll get their two quid back soon. Finally, I think it would've complicated the fpf1 project if there had been a takeover midway so a predator would maybe prefer to wait. eg. people tend to leave in takeovers. Modern project management tools ought to make everything run like clockwork. But as I recall, twenty years ago project managers were saying a third of all projects (across all industrys) THAT THEY MANAGE fail completely. And they still say that. Useless beggars. Lol.

Delia thought we were drilling for olive oil.

You can't sit on material information for a week or two "just in case". That's just wrong. First oil news must be shared. It isn't an announcement that everything is wonderful, it's a milestone and they need to announce it glitches and all. They issued 3 RNS releases in August at sail away within two weeks to flag the changing status of the fpf1. You might see that as a twitter feed, but regardless, I can see similar news flow at start up.

I don't know, I'm just guessing. Companies are supposed to comment on rumours when they are true and news is supposed to come from management not marinetraffic . They have nothing to lose by announcing a tanker movement that we'll all see anyway and something to gain (share price will respond). And we got guidance at sail away about when they were going to do the sea trials, which we could see on marineraffic. They didn't wait to see if the trials would be a success. Anyway, it's just my guess.

I was thinking the opposite. My guess is they'll flag first oil a few days before with an RNS. Market will watch for tanker arriving near the fpf1 ready for first oil. They know we can follow shipping and will anticipate a rumour, so we'lll get an RNS. Similar to sail away where they flagged the sea trial etc. with an RNS.

Yeah, what I meant was that any dip under a quid would be bought up. Get your Ithaca shares for pennies, sell them for pounds. I think this has happened. A few posters have even expressed pleasure at topping up just under a quid. So might still be stuck here a while, but I don't think we'll be going much lower than 100p (1.60 cad) and so it's a good base for next leg up. That's the theory anyway ;)

You've sold haven't you. You are the user Mandyman in Candyland or Stockhouse as it's sometimes known. Fair enuff. But how can you tell if the 100,000 late trade is buy or sell? The system thinks it's a sell because it's identifying it as a sell based on the closing mid price. But we don't know what time the trade actually went through because it was a late trade, as late trades are reported some time after the trade has been executed. So as we don't know the trade time, we can't know the actual midprice at that time and so we can't tell if late trades are a buy or sell. Anyway, don't suppose it matters.

They have to give an estimated date. It's the first thing you'd ask- 'when will it be ready'. You mentioned exorcism. This is a new theory. Do you think fpf1 possessed? I've heard you they do strange things with sheep in Aberdeen.

I don't see any mention of pipeline? Good news that they've managed to drop the cost estimate on Harrier by 50%. That more than compensates for Stella in February rather than January.