Member Info for Somekindofnut

I'm not sure what future CNPC has in Peru. They operate Lot X, but the license is due to expire in May, with the bidding round supposedly ongoing with the winner announced on 8th April (that's Monday) :

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/new-operator-on-menu-for-one-of-peru-s-largest-fields/2-1-1605914

That was in Feb though, and this article says bugger all interest in Lot X:

https://gestion.pe/economia/nadie-pugna-por-lote-x-y-perupetro-amplia-plazo-hasta-hoy-para-recibir-interesados-noticia

Manalo said he was interested ( webcast with analysts) in picking up one of these mature fields, but don't think it was Lot X? I think there's 5 or 6 fields in need of modern methods and looking for new operators.

Less refining capacity should mean less refined oil so more crude gets exported and therefore lower crude oil prices.

And that's what's happening. The amount of Russian oil at sea has hits 2024 record:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Oil-Exports-By-Sea-Hit-New-2024-Record.html

But it's not the only thing happening. Putin cutting production, adhering to OPEC cuts, not cheating etc, that's a choice.

I think Putin is keen on high oil price to continue to pay for his war and to put pressure on Biden.

High pump prices and inflation are huge vote losers and this is election year.

I wouldn't be surprised to see oil spike in run up to November.

I dont think PetroTal has done anything wrong. And they've been helping with spraying in recent Denge outbreak and social fund now has various significant projects going in a quite small community. So most locals should've experienced direct benefits from having Petrotal around and that wasnt the case a year ago.

I notice a new advisory committee for social fund made up from representatives from 18 districts of Puinahua is to be announced next month. Advisory committee of locals should I think help to ensure they are really involved and see where money is going.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIra-SGbUAAjRGz?format=jpg&name=900x900

Results and webcast are on Thursday.

https://twitter.com/Petro_Tal/status/1765290745072660496

Novum press release says no injuries and spill was less than 50 barrels thanks to double hull:

Novum Press release: River Incident Between Externally Owned Barges

Novum informs that as has been reported, the Peruvian transport company Trans Fluvial E.I.R.L. had an accident due to the collision of two of its barges during cargo transportation in the Puinahua River, Loreto Region.

This resulted, according to current estimates, in a spill of less than 50 barrels of crude oil, which have been mostly contained in the vicinity of the incident. Fortunately, no injuries have been reported.

The product on the barge before the incident occurred was 20,345 barrels. CONTAINMENT OF THE PRODUCT, AVOIDING a major incident, was possible by using only double-hull vessels.

The transporter is conducting cleaning operations and serving the surrounding communities through specialized companies, while Novum and Petrotal are jointly providing all the necessary support.

Should you have any further questions please contact us at info@novumenergy.com

Chris Scott Chief Financial Officer Novum Energy Trading Corp.

Credit to ALikhodedov for link

https://t.co/762Blg2MhB

I think Manolo needs to be LESS predictable with news. This would stop the trading out of PTAL when traders think no news is immediately due.

Sturm- I'm well aware that there will be reasons why the numbers are different.

The point I was quoting is that the real January production figure is higher than Perupetro is reporting and that they are beating guidance.

The Perpetro production report has January production at 18,959, but RNS says :

"January 2024 average production was 20,450 bopd with an associated Brent price of $80/bbl, ahead of Company guidance on a production and revenue basis."

Webcast of recent presentation for Analysts is up on Petrotal website.

Direct link:

https://stream.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/65b7515b6371e5b884f613c6

Daily production figures have been updated and I calculate production has ticked up to average 21k in last week.

Hopefully they can maintain or increase on that from now and they'll beat guidance.

https://www.perupetro.com.pe/wps/portal/corporativo/PerupetroSite/estadisticas/producci%C3%B3n%20hidrocarburos/producci%C3%B3n%20diaria/!ut/p/z1/04_Sj9CPykssy0xPLMnMz0vMAfIjo8zi_YxcTTw8TAy93AN8LQwCTUJcvEKADCdfI_1wsAIDHMDRQD8Kt35DHxOofhwKzPxNKdIPUhBFjPvxKIjC771w_Sh8VgQamUEV4AsifCaAwqAgNzQ0NMIg09NRUREAE9o-YQ!!/dz/d5/L2dBISEvZ0FBIS9nQSEh/

Slide 9 breaks down the guidance with 18,500 bopd for Q1 and 19,000 bopd for Q2 etc.

I understand that 16H coming on stream (this week?) means production needs to be restrained, but surely they will be able to let it go above 20k bopd?

I think because guidance was cautious. I think better that way- upgrades to guidance are better than having to downgrade.

Peru’s prime minister ruled out on a cash injection for Petroperu but will in fact support Petroperu with credit line guarantees and rescheduling the firm’s debts with the state:

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/petroperu_gets_government_assurance_of_financial_support-23-jan-2024-175472-article/

I found video of the interview with oil minister which article quotes thanks. He mumbles a bit at beginning I think, but talks about Seplat from about 7mins:

https://youtu.be/kn44awmKwXM?si=xmEojGJhPb2mjHo2

Anyway, IMO it's quite clear that he says:

"If NNPC had ANY reason to invoke the right of first refusal...."

rather than

"NNPC had EVERY reason."

So the article misquotes him. He doesn't say he's agreed with NNPC claim of first refusal, he's just saying that if NNPC had the right of first refusal, then they left it too late and it's Seplat's deal now.

Shell sells Nigerian onshore business to local consortium.

NNPC are partners with 55% but no mention of any pressure on Shell to sell to them instead.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/shell-agrees-sell-its-nigeria-onshore-oil-gas-business-2024-01-16/

I don't know what's going on. I thought the deal would require a shareholder vote but apparently not, so I guess it should go through quickly when NNPC and Exxon get their act together.

Anyway, we know Exxon has a new strategy as the biggest producer in Permian (buying Pioneer for $64billion), that there's usually a break fee if a party backs out of M&A deal and I notice deal was amended in May so that the money that would normally go to Seplat because of the backdating would instead be split between Seplat and Exxon. So the longer the delay the less cash Seplat should have to find, but my guess is that Exxon should also be feeling that they are being treated fairly because they have a deal to reflect the delay and are happy to move on with their focus in shale.

SSPA amended:

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SEPLAT-ENERGY-PLC-16256802/news/SEPLAT-ENERGY-CORPORATE-ANNOUNCEMENT-ON-SSPA-AMENDMENT-43932626/

Briga, it's a US form, but Hargreaves use it for Canadian shares too because they don't need the same information twice.

https://www.hl.co.uk/help/dealing/overseas-share-dealing/overseas-share-dealing/what-is-withholding-tax

"Where possible we will claim reduced withholding tax payments on US and Canadian stocks for investors who have provided us with a valid W-8BEN form."

Sapele (85mmcfd) is similar size to ANOH (80mmcfd). Capital Access report stated that ANOH should offer US$50m of gross annual profit.

But Saple is an upgrade from 60 MMscfd and to export quality gas (lng), so won't add like ANOH but I believe there's a shortage of LNG in Nigeria so maybe get a decent price.

Also from the Capital Access report:

"On that basis we forecast total production to grow from 44.1kboed in 2022 to 66.4kboe in 2026 for CAGR of 10.8%. Of the absolute growth we model, around 10% comes from higher gas production as a result of the Sapele gas plant

upgrade and Flares Out programme, around 30% comes from higher uptime in liquids production, largely due to the AEP, and the balance comes from the start-up of raw gas supply to the AGPC plant from OML 53 (Figure 24)."

Well, we were given early November as the date for the pilot, but it would take weeks to get from Bretana to Ecuador.

But the idea of Ecuador is to avoid going to Manaus, so you avoid the problems with low water levels there.