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Saudi Arabia will cut without Russia if it needs to.
It's done it before. SA and its Gulf Arab allies have previously over-complied with the cuts.
Saudi Arabia, Gulf states consider additional cuts - report
https://breakingthenews.net/Article/Saudi-Arabia-Gulf-states-consider-additional-cuts-report/51437831
Interesting to note that unlike other countries, Thailand didn't close it's borders to China at Chinese new year. They had almost 3 million tourists over the Chinese New Year. But the virus hasn't gained much traction in Thailand.
https://twitter.com/HayekAndKeynes/status/1233623588156125189
This might be the warmer weather, containment or because Chinese people have a cultural different view of personal space
https://www.chinaeducationaltours.com/guide/article-privacy-and-personal-space-in-china.htm
Normally when two people are having a conversation, they leave a comfortable space between them. But Chinese people are unruffled by closeness to others, and there can be a certain amount of quite acceptable pushing and shoving in public.
Durrants said recently he doesn't expect PMO to pay tax for 10 years. !
Https://uk.reuters.com/article/brief-premier-oil-ceo-says-does-not-expe/brief-premier-oil-ceo-says-does-not-expect-to-pay-tax-in-britain-for-10-yrs-idUKL8N29C193
A main point of the BP acquisition is it accelerates use of tax credits. So tax credit affect should increase next year and beyond.
So comparing Premier to other oilies, PMO looks decent value on EBITDA, but it's post tax that it's really good value.
LONDON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, is reducing crude supplies to China in March by at least 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to slower refinery demand following the coronavirus outbreak, two sources with knowledge of the matter said.
Https://www.reuters.com/article/saudi-oil-china-idUSL5N2AR71J
Opec meeting should confirm substantial cuts.
FT links are tricky.
But if you google the title "Premier Oil’s battle with hedge fund set for vote showdown", google should give you a link that you can read.
As long as it's hot bat soup and not cold uncooked bat soup, you're probably all good. ;)
Im told the best advice to avoid ANY flu is don't touch your face.
https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/features/prevent-flu-dont-be-touchy
No picking your nose then.
Data suggests virus infections under-reported, exaggerating fatality rate
BEIJING (Reuters) - Fatalities from the coronavirus epidemic are overwhelmingly concentrated in central China’s Wuhan city, which accounts for over 73% of deaths despite having only one-third the number of confirmed infections.
In Wuhan, the epicenter of the disease, one person has died for every 23 infections reported. That number drops to one on 50 nationally, and outside mainland China, one death has been recorded per 114 confirmed cases.
Experts say the discrepancy is mainly due to under-reporting of milder virus cases in Wuhan and other parts of Hubei province that are grappling with shortages in testing equipment and beds.
“In an outbreak your really have to interpret fatality rates with a very skeptical eye, because often it’s only the very severe cases that are coming to people’s attention,” said Amesh Adalja, an expert in pandemic preparedness at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore.
“It’s very hard to say those numbers represent anything like the true burden of infection” said Adalja, who estimates current fatality rates are likely below 1%.
As of Tuesday, 24,551 cases have been confirmed globally. A 1% fatality rate would put total cases at over 49,000, based on the current death toll of 492.
Gauden Galea, the World Health Organisation (WHO) representative for China, told Reuters on Sunday that a “crude calculation” done by dividing total cases by deaths put the rate at 2% and said the rate was generally falling.
Https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-deaths/data-suggests-virus-infections-under-reported-exaggerating-fatality-rate-idUSKBN1ZZ1AH
OPEC + will hold a technical meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the impact of the deadly coronavirus on oil demand. The meeting will determine whether the full ministerial meeting scheduled for March 5-6 should be moved forward. Some members are "already panicking," an OPEC source said.
Russian energy minister had said Friday that Russia was prepared to bring forward the March OPEC+ meeting to February and stood ready to react, if needed, to stabilize falling oil prices.
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/020220-opec-to-hold-technical-meeting-tues-wed-to-assess-virus-impact-sources
It is nasty, but most people recover.
Even those admitted to hospital.
In Lancet study, 15% of those admitted to hospital with the virus died, but 68% were released after recovering. The remainder obviously still being treated. I don't think you can conclude whether those will recover or not.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext
Bloomberg have a green agenda. They are negative on oil companies, development etc.
Https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/07/08/behind-the-eco-curtain-how-bloomberg-pays-to-prosecute-the-trump-epa/
Everyone has some agenda, Bloomberg is still worth reading, I think it's just worthwhile understanding where they are coming from.
So other articles carrying the story are carrying Pemex comments that they believe they can get Zama producing next year and that it has two additional, nearby prospects on acreage it already controls.
"Such a cluster would promote efficient development of the oil and gas riches below, even bringing production online faster than Talos’ estimation, Romero said.
“There are two other potential reservoirs (nearby): one called Naquita and another called Chamak, which constitute a development cluster that we’re looking to create that will slash operating costs by a lot,” he said."
Pemex Jockeys To Operate Zama Area, But What About Talos Energy?
Https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-oil-zama/mexicos-pemex-seeks-to-operate-zama-says-it-holds-most-of-the-oil-idUSKBN1ZS298
Nobody can know the percentage until they know the size of the field on both sides. Talos knows size of their side. Pemex needs to get on and drill their side. Obviously Pemex hope their side is bigger.
Instead of travelling on the bus, people are using cars...
https://twitter.com/jfree41185737/status/1221799727257149441
By the way, I think the transaction date has to be 01/01/19 as that's when the reserves report was done.
Unless I'm missing something, the answer to the first question is obviously NO. Ive pasted it below. This seems to make most of the remaining questions kind of pointless I think.
It's explained clearly I think in the webcast, PMO only expect to pay $500m because transaction is backdated, but they have a bridging loan in place just to be sure. However, I'd say they should have good idea how much FCF assets have made from beginning of 2019 to date, and that's most of the period of 01/01/19 to mid 2020.
So BP assets are being bought with the $500m capital raise, no new debt should be necessary. No new risk to lenders, so I can't see how an institution thinking as a lender instead of a shorter would object.
Obviously it's their short that they are really worried about!
"1) Since the transaction is back dated to January 1, 2019, is it accurate that cash flows until the closing of the Andrew and Shearwater transactions (estimated to be 2Q-3Q 2020) will remain with BP?"
Looks to me like 88e has been ramped to saturation. 88e is on same market cap as RKH, but RKH has more cash and proven reserves. 88e is a punt until we know how much 88e oil is actually recoverable.
"It is understood that the company will need the support of three quarters of lenders to complete a restructuring of its debts."
Weasel words. You only need 50% of debtors to approve debt restructuring through a scheme of arrangement. The court decides whether the new scheme is reasonable and fair.
LTT, I see no reason why opec should allow $50 poo, when at $65 shale is struggling for cash. Although it could be another year before we see US production decline, the lack of investment will come to roost.
So some of the debt has been sold on to hedgies. I think they need to refinance, get the debt back with banks and away from hedge funds that short debt and don't think long term.
But PMO have already said they've begun refinancing discussions for refinancing next year. So we know they are addressing the problem and I don't think they can hurry the refinancing process.
Much better to be in PMO than TLW or ENQ who are facing downgrades though. Catcher though is outperforming. Was supposed to max out at 50k bopd, but is now doing 66k bopd and production is being held back by FPSO capacity. Year end PMO say Catcher reserves will be upgraded. Upgrade of reserves at main production asset should unlock cheaper refinancing, because it shows PMO has improved ability to repay.
They are hopefully working on some news, but just can't talk about it yet.
Goldman made 1.5 billion transaction TR1 reports over 10 years. Of that, 15% had errors or been untimely. It's careless, but anyone making billions of these archaic reports is bound to make lots of errors and been untimely.
Https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/28/investing/goldman-sachs-fined-errors-uk-fca/index.html
This situation is different i think. ARCM can't claim a minor oversight, typo or just been untimely. ARCM have hidden a huge short for several years. This is no accident, it's obviously deception and the FCA should treat it as market abuse.