Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
Shell sells Nigerian onshore business to local consortium.
NNPC are partners with 55% but no mention of any pressure on Shell to sell to them instead.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/shell-agrees-sell-its-nigeria-onshore-oil-gas-business-2024-01-16/
I don't know what's going on. I thought the deal would require a shareholder vote but apparently not, so I guess it should go through quickly when NNPC and Exxon get their act together.
Anyway, we know Exxon has a new strategy as the biggest producer in Permian (buying Pioneer for $64billion), that there's usually a break fee if a party backs out of M&A deal and I notice deal was amended in May so that the money that would normally go to Seplat because of the backdating would instead be split between Seplat and Exxon. So the longer the delay the less cash Seplat should have to find, but my guess is that Exxon should also be feeling that they are being treated fairly because they have a deal to reflect the delay and are happy to move on with their focus in shale.
SSPA amended:
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SEPLAT-ENERGY-PLC-16256802/news/SEPLAT-ENERGY-CORPORATE-ANNOUNCEMENT-ON-SSPA-AMENDMENT-43932626/
Briga, it's a US form, but Hargreaves use it for Canadian shares too because they don't need the same information twice.
https://www.hl.co.uk/help/dealing/overseas-share-dealing/overseas-share-dealing/what-is-withholding-tax
"Where possible we will claim reduced withholding tax payments on US and Canadian stocks for investors who have provided us with a valid W-8BEN form."
Sapele (85mmcfd) is similar size to ANOH (80mmcfd). Capital Access report stated that ANOH should offer US$50m of gross annual profit.
But Saple is an upgrade from 60 MMscfd and to export quality gas (lng), so won't add like ANOH but I believe there's a shortage of LNG in Nigeria so maybe get a decent price.
Also from the Capital Access report:
"On that basis we forecast total production to grow from 44.1kboed in 2022 to 66.4kboe in 2026 for CAGR of 10.8%. Of the absolute growth we model, around 10% comes from higher gas production as a result of the Sapele gas plant
upgrade and Flares Out programme, around 30% comes from higher uptime in liquids production, largely due to the AEP, and the balance comes from the start-up of raw gas supply to the AGPC plant from OML 53 (Figure 24)."
Well, we were given early November as the date for the pilot, but it would take weeks to get from Bretana to Ecuador.
But the idea of Ecuador is to avoid going to Manaus, so you avoid the problems with low water levels there.
Guidance will be a range of course, but next year's production ought to be a bit higher.
Especially as they were only producing 12k bopd in Q1 of this year, but production in first quarter 2024 should be above 20k. New well being drilled now of course.
And we're waiting to hear about export route to Ecuador, but I think we should know soon if pilot successful?
Sorry posted earlier while editing by accident. Changed from tablet to phone now hopefully better now ;)
Meant to say, rise in NGX doesn't mean Nigeria is booming, but imo reforms including free float of Naira and merging official and parallel exchange rates windows will be a good thing. Also, Nigeria doing LNG deals, privatising NNPC, refining more oil in Nigeria instead of exporting crude might help Seplat. First crude going to Dangote:
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/120723-first-crude-supply-cargo-en-route-to-nigerias-giant-dangote-refinery
I don't know how an IPO of NNPC would work. Government claimed NNPC 80% ready for IPO. But it does seem to me that instead of interfering with sale of MPNU, it'd fit better with government strategy if NNPC were selling shallow water assets to Seplat instead of trying to buy.
On the LSE/NGX difference, it's obviously a liquidity problem when you have different prices for same share over a LONG time. I don't see Nigerian investors knowing more Eg see Nairaland discussions:
https://www.nairaland.com/search?q=seplat&board=81
Also see limited choices in Nigeria for investors and amongst that Seplat has high a profile. Eg I've seen clips of Seplat on Nigerian TV. And ordinary people in Nigeria know ANOH is coming. In London, Seplat gets ignored. However, Seplat should take opportunity with increased size (post mpnu) to up their profile i think.
Brent is oversold, buying opportunity imo. Saudis and Russia need $85 oil.
My comment was about the NGX market which is up 40% this year. Thats not because they know more or whatever. Anyway, I think market reforms including free float of Naira (which has led to devaluation) will turn out to be good thing by Tmean Nigeria is boomingTinubu reforms in Nigeria led to naira devaluation. Sepla
But it doesn't say change OF business, it says change IN business. MPNU deal is massive change for Seplat. Not just size, but change to corporate structure. MPNU will be separate unit of Seplat (with its own board I assume).
Personally, I think its right that Seplat should publish prospectus and shareholders should get a vote. Companies shouldn't be allowed to sidestep consulting shareholders just because because they use cash.
This is my interpretation though, Investor Relations would answer your question I think.
...is due to currency and inflation.
Tom, we know the mpnu deal is reverse takeover from the Seplat proposal. They knew at the time it would be cash deal and their lawyers will have written the proposal. You then have to ask why it's an rto when it's a cash deal and that's why I quoted handbook below.
Nigerian market has risen and so has Seplat share price in Nigeria. But Naira is down by more than half against dollar and pound. So much of rise
I had to Google.
So I think the reason why it's a reverse takeover is not because of the size of the transaction (no shares are being issued), but because acquisition
"results in a fundamental change in the business".
Quoted from here:
https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/LR/5/6.html
We don't know when the seller started or whether they have finished.
I think its possible the market maker has been accumulating buys for days or weeks to fill this big sell. Perhaps that's why for a while PetroTal has seemed to want to surge higher in Canada, but not London?
Is this what we are waiting for?
New board who will sign agreement with Exxonn?
https://dailypost.ng/2023/11/27/tinubu-appoints-new-board-management-team-for-nnpcl-full-list/
Article says appointed from December 1st.
Is this not a misunderstanding?
In Facebook they are quoting letter from 2016 which complains that the Governor won't meet them, that they want a regional conservation area and they will paralyse oil activities in the Tapiche and Blanco basins. The article assumes all of this is current.
But original Facebook post just says they have 3 demands-
1. For dialogue -to be heard.
2 . For their wellbeing to be looked after.
3. For environment to be conserved.
Seems reasonable to me.
But letter demonstrates their demand for conservation area not being heard and was more relevant to PetroTal in 2016 when it was written, but PetroTal presentations say they aren't going to drill Tapiche area (Block 107) until 2026 by which time PetroTal will have similar revenue sharing and environmental agreement with locals as they have in Block 95.
Which is what I think locals in Tapiche/Blanco actually want.
You are probably right, but I guess reporting of Ecuador exports is just late. I don't think late reporting of anything new would be surprising.
Its either that or the Ecuador pilot hasn't gone ahead.
I think production reported to Perupetro has gone because PTAL is sending barges to Ecuador rather than for use by Perupetro.
https://www.perupetro.com.pe/wps/wcm/connect/corporativo/7318e1ef-aaa2-4c91-8313-7d2090cba5fa/Producci%C3%B3n+l%C3%ADquidos.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&liquidos
So last update:
"The Company is pleased to announce the commencement of its pilot oil sales shipment through the OCP Ecuador pipeline (“OCP”) in early November with the support of the Ecuadorian government. PetroTal plans to sell 100,000 barrels of crude into the OCP for eventual arrival at Esmeralda’s port. "
I'd say "early November " suggests at most the first two weeks in November perhaps, so 100,000 barrels over that period could be 7,000 bpd.
I'm hoping Ecuador route could be breakthrough for PTAL.
I listened to what Manolo said last year about how he'd cope if water levels were low again and he said they'd take on more barges- to compensate, because, as we know, barges carry less when river levels are low.
There's obviously difference between low river level and un-navigatable though. We know Rio Negro is un-navigatable, there's plenty of pictures. Ucayali is major tributary, surely there'd be lots of publicity if it was also un-navigatable?
My guess is the barges manage to muddle through (or puddle through;-) Only one figure is reported for different river points, but in reality surely depth will vary across span of river? So barges are able to weave down the river, through deeper channels, avoiding sand banks? Barges dont want to hit a sand bank with a full load, difficult to get the barge off it again,but barges dont need water thats very deep do they ?
Alternatively, maybe they are using barges to store oil?
Anyway, Im just guessing, better to wait and ask perhaps as rylidan says.
In any case, hopefully they can develop Ecuador route and that will improve things.
Starmer isn't that socialist. He squirms about, but they (rightly) fear the bond market -everything is supposedly costed and there's other things that would be rather more vote winning to nationalise or borrow more for. Water, trains, school rebuilding, NHS...
In the short term, people might say they are in favour of nationalising. But lots of institutions choose not invest in oil because of green opinion, so instead the government would own 'dirty' oil companies and everyone would be happy with that? A report that public sector pensions invested in oil companies hit the headlines today, as if they did something terrible. And it's a can of worms. Cue motorists expecting cheap petrol because they own the company etc.
It'd be PR disaster, which is what they care about. The good of country isn't their main consideration, its getting elected, polls and being re-elected. That's why Labour rejected nationalising North Sea and they proposed a nationalised green energy company instead. I can't see how public ownership of green things would be better. But what they see is green is good PR, oil is not.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63046067
Hi upomego,
There isn't a company making or braking wildcat drill or similar level of excitement with Serica, but I probably wouldn't invest if there was.
But oil and gas prices looking better in H2 than brokers expected, so we should do better in H2 than they forecast. And FID on Belinda will be interesting. Just looking at map, it looks like it should be easy tie back, so cheap to develop.
Article is about Serica keeping more of its profits post-Tailwind, but like most investors I think,I'd prefer if they pivoted away from the UK, even though North Sea is their skillset, and I think it needs to be further afield than Norway, maybe start with non- operated asset in new country.