Member Info for Somekindofnut

They are restraining production. Or perhaps 'managing' is better word:

"As previously contemplated when PetroTal announced an acceleration of its capital program with Q2 2024 results in August 2024, flush production from wells 22H and 23H will be used to manage field output in-line with installed fluid handling capacity throughout H1 2025."

So I don't see any point in keeping production at 20k if they are able to produce 23k though. Need to wait and see what guidance is to see what the plan is though.

*not the general manager, it was Investor Relations guy that said 23k i think. But anyway I'm hoping they can beat 20k bpd in Q1. Guidance for 2025 will be interesting.

Average for 18th-22nd was 25,348 bopd.

Average for 6th -17th was 18,751 bopd

Average for 1st -5th was 20, 413 bopd.

This could mean they are going better now than mid-month and even earlier in month. Equally they could have zero day tomorrow and average drops. There's some storage on site and boats are irregular. But I think it was general manager in recent interview that said Bretaña can now produce 23k bpd 'any day'.

I think the power plant uses about 200 bpd. Not sure. But currently annual average is 17, 397 bpd. So I think 17, 500 bpd or a touch over will be the final number.

Anyway, hope our large seller is finished soon.

I think you've forgotten about dilution due to covid shutting down Petrotal and them having to go through warrant exercise as a result.

It wasn't until 2023 that all remaining warrants were exercised. Thats why i only compared current number of shares to Dec 2023, where you can see buy backs are offsetting the performance related shares and the number of shares declining slightly because there's no outstanding warrants to confuse things.

Corryvreckan1- it's just different dates surely?

The RNS is talking about May 23 to May 24. "As at May 14, 2024, the Company had repurchased an aggregate 17,702,694 Common Shares "

But presentation, displays quarterly data and in specifically talking about Q1 to Q3 of this year?

Hi Tony- I think workplace is very different to discussion board. I don't think anyone should fear posting stuff that's wrong or not entirely right. In fact it can be helpful because it prompts discussion imo.

Anyway, if you compare a recent buyback RNS to a year ago, I think you'll see that the number of shares is going down slightly. So:

6th December 2024 -912,126,312 shares

4th December 2023 -913,855,669 shares

The problem here I think is you're over counting because you are counting the same process twice.

Analogy might be toast? So you are counting the bread going into the toaster as well as the toast coming out.

So the May announcement is bread going into toaster - Performance Share Units being awarded. PSUs are being kept toasty, but are not shares.

It's only after 3 years that these PSUs may get turned into shares. So the January RNS has the toast emerging from toaster after 3 years. Sometimes it'll be two slices or shares that will come out, sometimes one slice and sometimes none, depending on performance. Or put it another way, amount of toast or shares Manolo gets in the conversation depends on performance.

Details of employment contracts are private but we know one key performance he needs to meet is share price. So this January I expect Manolo to receive less toast (shares) because he's meeting operations targets like production but share price hasn't performed.

On August 6th Management Summary, they report that in H1 of this year 1.3 million PSUs were forfeited (page 17).

Viable- theyve got it wrong. $765m was estimate of total project capex.

Its on slide 34 here:

https://petrotalcorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/PetroTal-Corporate-Presentation-August-2022-update-EnerCom-Final.pdf

And since then, article is from last year, theyve bought block 131.

I think the plan is to develop 131 first and then tie in 107 which would reduce costs. Although I cant remember where I got this from. I might have made it up?

River has been rising sharply upstream at Pucallpa. It's over red zone and orange lines now.

https://www.dhn.mil.pe/sehinav/histogramas_shna/archivos/Pucallpa.pdf

Google says Ucayali has a current of about 5–6 km per hour and its about 1000km from Pucallpa to Iquitos by boat. So about a week for river flow to Iquitos, bit less for Bretana?

Cepsa officially leaves Lot 131 and leaves the way clear for Petrotal's entry

The company has focused its efforts on strengthening its position in the energy sector through its divestment from fossil fuels, which has contributed to this favorable change in its financial results.

Oil from Lot 131 will be added to the oil extracted by Petrotal in Lot 95, as well as to future investments in Lot 107. Meanwhile, Cepsa aims to become increasingly "green."

Spanish company Cepsa has officially left Lot 131 , located between Huánuco and Ucayali, through a contract modification that leaves the company Petrotal as corporate guarantor.

By Supreme Decree No. 019-2024-EM, the Ministry of Energy and Mines (Minem) authorizes the state agency Perupetro to modify the License Contract for the Exploration and Exploitation of Hydrocarbons in Lot 131.

This modification of the Lot 131 contract is executed in order to “reflect the replacement of Compañía Española de Petróleos SA (Cepsa) Unipersonal by Petrotal Corp. as corporate guarantor in the contract in question ,” details the document published today in the El Peruano newspaper.

In this way, the state agency Perupetro is now ready to sign the new contract with the Canadian company Petrotal, which has already managed Lot 95 in Loreto since 2017.

Before reaching this agreement, the transfer received the approval of various energy sector bodies, such as the Directorate of Hydrocarbon Exploration and Exploitation of the General Directorate of Hydrocarbons of Minem.

Now, it is up to Perupetro to begin the procedures for the arrival of Petrotal. Some legal issues must be resolved, such as the minutes, public deed and corporate guarantee, in order to then sign the final modification. Industry sources explained to Infobae Peru that the process should not take more than a few days.

https://www.infobae.com/peru/2024/10/03/cepsa-sale-oficialmente-del-lote-131-y-deja-el-camino-listo-para-el-ingreso-de-petrotal/#google_vignette

Viable it's the channel at Iquitos that's restricted to 3 feet but the barges don't need to go there.

They bypass Iquitos and go to the refinery or on to Manaus:

https://i.ibb.co/hgN0PHj/Screenshot-20240920-121130.png

"In order to avoid water accidents (grounding) that lead to personal and material damage, this River Authority restricts the entry of vessels with a draft greater than 3 feet and a tonnage greater than 150 AB, to the ENTRANCE CHANNEL TO THE CITY OF IQUITOS, and urges the skippers and/or those in charge of the vessels to strictly comply with the provisions and orders issued by the River Police on duty personnel of this port captaincy."

https://diariolaregion.com/rio-amazonas-registra-record-historico-durante-temporada-de-vaciante/

I think the development budget drops next year anyways as they don't plan to drill Bretana again until Q4 of 2025 (after the current drill program finishes). After 20H is completed, they will drill 21H, 22H and 23H this year. And by then they'll have to water handling, 4th processing unit and wells to sustain over 20k bopd . That should mean they soon should have enough production to confidently sustain a higher baseline dividend.

If Cepsa deal completes in q4, Manolo said tech team had identified one target to drill this year or early next. Potentially they could press on with more drilling on block 131 next year, which would need capex. But as rylidan says, they have flexibility that they can wait and see how the first well goes. I don't think horizontal drilling has been tried on 131 yet, so will be interesting.

Anyway, lots of investment going on this year which should benefit next year depending on POO.

I follow #OOTT for a balanced view of oil prices from oil traders and journalists. Oil traders aren't shy about shorting. Anyway, worth pointing out that although sentiment is weak, global inventories are at a record low. And if you correct for inflation, oil is cheap as chips:

https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/1831227445552222278/photo/1

My experience is that when oil is at $90, it's best to ignore $100 calls from likes of Goldman and be bearish. And when oil is at $70, it's best to be bullish and ignore the doomsters. But everyone should do their own research of course.

No problem of course. I tried to tidy the output from Google translate but I'm afraid I posted a muddle instead. And I'm not sure if Google map link works for Apple users either?

It took me a while for me to work out how they were able to make deliveries at Iquitos refinery when Iquitos graph shows such shallow water. But it's obvious when you look at the map.

I think this article is a good summary of the situation at Iquitos.

https://diariolaregion.com/extrema-vaciante-afecta-gravemente-la-economia-de-loreto/

So Google translate says that there are restrictions now at Iquitos with food and fuel shortages.

Because as quote from the Port Captain says, the depth at Itaya River mouth at Iquitos is currently 6 feet. This fits with the graph, that we all refer to, which shows depth of about a metre at Iquitos:

Https://www.dhn.mil.pe/sehinav/histogramas_shna/archivos/Amazonas.pdf

However, Petrotal don't send barges to Itaya River mouth at Iquitos, they go to Iquitos refinery. Or as article puts it, they don't go to Port Masusa which is a port at Iquitos. The Iquitos refinery is in fact 14km from Iquitos and it's on the

main drag of the river Amazon and not the shallow channel at Iquitos. Map here:

https://maps.app.goo.gl/Zgkjna1kw8L2uXcXA

================

Google translation extract:

'

“In view of the constant groundings that have been recorded in the

access channel to the city of Iquitos and the sounding carried out by the Hydrography service of the Amazon at the mouth of the Itaya River (Barra), it describes that the width of the navigation is 30 meters with a depth of 6 feet.

And in order to avoid aquatic accidents (groundings) that lead to

personal and material damage, the river authority orders the prohibition of navigation of vessels with a draft greater than 4 feet

through the access channel to the city.” published the Port Captaincy.

All authorities must evaluate, once again, the immense damage and

delay that the immense ebb and flow is generating, for which they

would have to make quick decisions. We must not forget that most of the cargo that arrives in Iquitos is by river. Even construction

materials arrive in deep-draft vessels. Fuel sales and gas stations have also begun to be restricted.

Why is this? Not because vessels cannot moor in Masusa or pass through the canal between the Amazon and Itaya. No. This is because fuel is brought from the Iquitos Refinery, underground.

What happens is that the ebb and flow is strong throughout the region, as shown in previous editions of the Diario La Región, as the world's most voluminous river, the majestic Amazon, is currently a dry river on the Peruvian side. This is also the case in other places, so the vessels that transport crude oil to the Iquitos Refinery, which also

bring the inputs for the fuel transformation process, are being

delayed.

And to overcome these problems, they would have to lower the load

level or transfer from one vessel to another, in order to be able to

reach the final destination without delay. So, they have to take all

the necessary precautions until the regional, national, etc. government can do something about it. If they already knew that the 2024 ebb and flow was going to be extremely intense, why haven't they dredged? '

Petroperu report has been updated btw. Up to 27th now. Production looks surprisingly ok despite recent fall in river levels.

Average for August to the 27th is just above 14k bopd now. I guess final average for full month August will be about 13k.

Oh yeah. Was looking at last year. Lol.

Petrotal have it on their website:

https://petrotalcorp.com/investors/dividend-information/

Ex dividend yesterday, record date today.

Published just today, Petroperu have announced bidding process for Lots 1 and VI.

https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/perupetro-announces-investor-call-process-to-operate-lots-i-and-vi-in-talara

https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/bids-open-for-two-blocks-and-200-well-programme-in-peru/2-1-1693379

And Petroperu production report now updated to 13th. Two zero days and 33 k day. Still averaging over 18k bopd for August.

I think the other thing thing is dredging. Iquitos is famously the largest city you can't get to by road. It affects prices for ordinary people if they can't fill to capacity the barges with food etc.

The idea of building a storage capacity in Bretana is not really impactful, when we are producing 20,000, 25,000 as we intend to do in the future or even more than you would have to have a major times to do that. Keep in mind that we are adjacent to the Pacaya Samiria National Reserve. So, and that's why our footprint is a small. We're going to eventually need to grow that footprint some, but not to add a tank farm. We are in a very sensitive area, and it will not have much of an impact because you may be able to store 100,000 or so, and that's in a matter of a few days, it will be fully used.

What we need to continue doing is expanding the barge fleet, which we have done. And eventually, the ultimate goal, especially we find more oil in the leads that we have in Block 95 is to connect directly to the O&P, there is solution, and that's what we're looking at.

And for that, of course, we want to do the seismic in Block 95. And then you see the potential that we believe we may have two, three other Bretana’s in Block 95. And that's why we are looking ahead to expand the capacity to 50,000, 70,000, so everything is connected and where we very steadfast on our approach.

90k bopd. Slide 31

Manolo was asked question about increasing storage. Basically says aren't going to do it because they need to keep footprint small and they don't believe it'd add value.