Member Info for Somekindofnut

Guidance will be a range of course, but next year's production ought to be a bit higher.

Especially as they were only producing 12k bopd in Q1 of this year, but production in first quarter 2024 should be above 20k. New well being drilled now of course.

And we're waiting to hear about export route to Ecuador, but I think we should know soon if pilot successful?

Sorry posted earlier while editing by accident. Changed from tablet to phone now hopefully better now ;)

Meant to say, rise in NGX doesn't mean Nigeria is booming, but imo reforms including free float of Naira and merging official and parallel exchange rates windows will be a good thing. Also, Nigeria doing LNG deals, privatising NNPC, refining more oil in Nigeria instead of exporting crude might help Seplat. First crude going to Dangote:

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/120723-first-crude-supply-cargo-en-route-to-nigerias-giant-dangote-refinery

I don't know how an IPO of NNPC would work. Government claimed NNPC 80% ready for IPO. But it does seem to me that instead of interfering with sale of MPNU, it'd fit better with government strategy if NNPC were selling shallow water assets to Seplat instead of trying to buy.

On the LSE/NGX difference, it's obviously a liquidity problem when you have different prices for same share over a LONG time. I don't see Nigerian investors knowing more Eg see Nairaland discussions:

https://www.nairaland.com/search?q=seplat&board=81

Also see limited choices in Nigeria for investors and amongst that Seplat has high a profile. Eg I've seen clips of Seplat on Nigerian TV. And ordinary people in Nigeria know ANOH is coming. In London, Seplat gets ignored. However, Seplat should take opportunity with increased size (post mpnu) to up their profile i think.

Brent is oversold, buying opportunity imo. Saudis and Russia need $85 oil.

My comment was about the NGX market which is up 40% this year. Thats not because they know more or whatever. Anyway, I think market reforms including free float of Naira (which has led to devaluation) will turn out to be good thing by Tmean Nigeria is boomingTinubu reforms in Nigeria led to naira devaluation. Sepla

But it doesn't say change OF business, it says change IN business. MPNU deal is massive change for Seplat. Not just size, but change to corporate structure. MPNU will be separate unit of Seplat (with its own board I assume).

Personally, I think its right that Seplat should publish prospectus and shareholders should get a vote. Companies shouldn't be allowed to sidestep consulting shareholders just because because they use cash.

This is my interpretation though, Investor Relations would answer your question I think.

...is due to currency and inflation.

Tom, we know the mpnu deal is reverse takeover from the Seplat proposal. They knew at the time it would be cash deal and their lawyers will have written the proposal. You then have to ask why it's an rto when it's a cash deal and that's why I quoted handbook below.

Nigerian market has risen and so has Seplat share price in Nigeria. But Naira is down by more than half against dollar and pound. So much of rise

I had to Google.

So I think the reason why it's a reverse takeover is not because of the size of the transaction (no shares are being issued), but because acquisition

"results in a fundamental change in the business".

Quoted from here:

https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/LR/5/6.html

We don't know when the seller started or whether they have finished.

I think its possible the market maker has been accumulating buys for days or weeks to fill this big sell. Perhaps that's why for a while PetroTal has seemed to want to surge higher in Canada, but not London?

Is this what we are waiting for?

New board who will sign agreement with Exxonn?

https://dailypost.ng/2023/11/27/tinubu-appoints-new-board-management-team-for-nnpcl-full-list/

Article says appointed from December 1st.

Is this not a misunderstanding?

In Facebook they are quoting letter from 2016 which complains that the Governor won't meet them, that they want a regional conservation area and they will paralyse oil activities in the Tapiche and Blanco basins. The article assumes all of this is current.

But original Facebook post just says they have 3 demands-

1. For dialogue -to be heard.

2 . For their wellbeing to be looked after.

3. For environment to be conserved.

Seems reasonable to me.

But letter demonstrates their demand for conservation area not being heard and was more relevant to PetroTal in 2016 when it was written, but PetroTal presentations say they aren't going to drill Tapiche area (Block 107) until 2026 by which time PetroTal will have similar revenue sharing and environmental agreement with locals as they have in Block 95.

Which is what I think locals in Tapiche/Blanco actually want.

You are probably right, but I guess reporting of Ecuador exports is just late. I don't think late reporting of anything new would be surprising.

Its either that or the Ecuador pilot hasn't gone ahead.

I think production reported to Perupetro has gone because PTAL is sending barges to Ecuador rather than for use by Perupetro.

https://www.perupetro.com.pe/wps/wcm/connect/corporativo/7318e1ef-aaa2-4c91-8313-7d2090cba5fa/Producci%C3%B3n+l%C3%ADquidos.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&liquidos

So last update:

"The Company is pleased to announce the commencement of its pilot oil sales shipment through the OCP Ecuador pipeline (“OCP”) in early November with the support of the Ecuadorian government. PetroTal plans to sell 100,000 barrels of crude into the OCP for eventual arrival at Esmeralda’s port. "

I'd say "early November " suggests at most the first two weeks in November perhaps, so 100,000 barrels over that period could be 7,000 bpd.

I'm hoping Ecuador route could be breakthrough for PTAL.

I listened to what Manolo said last year about how he'd cope if water levels were low again and he said they'd take on more barges- to compensate, because, as we know, barges carry less when river levels are low.

There's obviously difference between low river level and un-navigatable though. We know Rio Negro is un-navigatable, there's plenty of pictures. Ucayali is major tributary, surely there'd be lots of publicity if it was also un-navigatable?

My guess is the barges manage to muddle through (or puddle through;-) Only one figure is reported for different river points, but in reality surely depth will vary across span of river? So barges are able to weave down the river, through deeper channels, avoiding sand banks? Barges dont want to hit a sand bank with a full load, difficult to get the barge off it again,but barges dont need water thats very deep do they ?

Alternatively, maybe they are using barges to store oil?

Anyway, Im just guessing, better to wait and ask perhaps as rylidan says.

In any case, hopefully they can develop Ecuador route and that will improve things.

Starmer isn't that socialist. He squirms about, but they (rightly) fear the bond market -everything is supposedly costed and there's other things that would be rather more vote winning to nationalise or borrow more for. Water, trains, school rebuilding, NHS...

In the short term, people might say they are in favour of nationalising. But lots of institutions choose not invest in oil because of green opinion, so instead the government would own 'dirty' oil companies and everyone would be happy with that? A report that public sector pensions invested in oil companies hit the headlines today, as if they did something terrible. And it's a can of worms. Cue motorists expecting cheap petrol because they own the company etc.

It'd be PR disaster, which is what they care about. The good of country isn't their main consideration, its getting elected, polls and being re-elected. That's why Labour rejected nationalising North Sea and they proposed a nationalised green energy company instead. I can't see how public ownership of green things would be better. But what they see is green is good PR, oil is not.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63046067

Hi upomego,

There isn't a company making or braking wildcat drill or similar level of excitement with Serica, but I probably wouldn't invest if there was.

But oil and gas prices looking better in H2 than brokers expected, so we should do better in H2 than they forecast. And FID on Belinda will be interesting. Just looking at map, it looks like it should be easy tie back, so cheap to develop.

Article is about Serica keeping more of its profits post-Tailwind, but like most investors I think,I'd prefer if they pivoted away from the UK, even though North Sea is their skillset, and I think it needs to be further afield than Norway, maybe start with non- operated asset in new country.

I saw OP this morning and thought Serica was best placed to answer questions about H2 cash flow demands, rather than us trying to guess.

So I emailed to ask whether increased demand on cash was partly due to capex payments booking next years drilling program.

I expected Investor Relations might reply, but Mitch kindly replied himself. I don't think he'll mind me posting his reply in full:

"Thanks very much for your enquiry. It is a little difficult to focus on individual numbers in isolation as these are subject to a range of factors and assumptions. It is, however, the case that some types of cash payments are weighted to the second half of the year (2H).

The 2022 final dividend of approx. £54 million was paid in July and this will be followed by a 2023 interim dividend of approx. £35 million in November. Likewise current year tax instalments are weighted to 2H with the July payment already disclosed at £80 million and a further payment to be made in October before a final reckoning next January. In addition, as you have suggested, we expect to see some early spend on the 2024 drilling programme falling this side of year end. Beyond that there are the normal cash variables of production volumes and liftings, commodity prices etc and payment/receipt timings.

Once these factors are smoothed this reflects expectations of a continuing strong performance and we are encouraged that the Investors Chronicle, and the Peel Hunt analysis to which it refers, both hold Serica as a recommended buy on the basis of their analysis.

Regards

Mitch"

Banburyboy- the $95m dividend paid on 12th Jan 2022 was generated on cashflow generated during 2021. I mean come on, this is 2023, that $95m was paid out over a year ago. It's gone.

I don't know what dividend was paid in January 2023. I think we should've been told how much and told if Tailwind weren't paying a dividend. They wouldn't cancel dividend schedule just because of a takeover bid imo. It just annoys shareholders. My estimate is they paid $100m, as it was $95m last year and $110m the year before. So yes, from end of of 2021 to completion I estimate Tailwind paid two annual dividends amounting to about $200m.

IMO it's rational thinking. Occams Razor says the simplest explanation is usually the truth. So unless you have evidence that says otherwise, we should believe cash has been returned as dividends in usual way rather than some speculative theory.

I only brought up Tailwind dividend because it was suggested that rather than money being paid out as a dividend, that money had disappeared fraudulently!

Why hold the shares if you aren't bullish? It doesn't make sense. Serica haven't just bought "debt", they've merged with a company generating significant cash which doesn't need to be spent paying off debt.

It's normal IMO for a company paying dividends to have debt (Tailwind).

What isnt normal is to sit on a pile of cash (Serica).

If anyone looking for link, Tailwinds 2021 accounts published to companies house:

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/07879002/filing-history

Banburyboy, I don't think we can complain about Tailwind paying it's shareholders a dividend which it does every January.

Post 2021 balance sheet, Tailwind paid a dividend of $95m in January 2022 (page 52 of Tailwind 2021 accounts).

Anyway, between year end 2021 and completion, they would've paid two annual dividends amounting to maybe $200m.