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I don't know if Petrotal are going to publish recording of the webcast as there were some sound problems?

Anyway, there were a lot of good questions on earnings call so worth having copy imo.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4713533-petrotal-corp-ptalf-q2-2024-earnings-call-transcript

Updated to 11th.

We know production is going to be affected by dry season but ok so far. Average for those 11 days is 18,387 bopd. That's slightly higher than average for the year (18,373)

https://www.perupetro.com.pe/wps/wcm/connect/corporativo/7318e1ef-aaa2-4c91-8313-7d2090cba5fa/Reporte+L%C3%ADquidos+13.4.24.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&liquidos

Sorry, Daniel. I missed that.

Zeus capital update

"Overall, this is a further statement from PetroTal demonstrating the company’s significant existing production capability, higher production potential on further drilling and export route availability, strong cash generation to be had from this and the solid funding position it creates, and capability to take advantage of these opportunities via operational execution.

Going forward we expect more of the same – cash generation supporting both growth CAPEX and shareholder returns.

 Forecasts and valuation. We have updated our forecasts based on increasing our 2024 oil price and also increasing our CAPEX based on guidance. For 2025 we leave our numbers largely unchanged, though there is a small impact on free cash flow due to a higher tax bill in 2024, part of which would be paid in 2025

On valuation, we have now added Block 131 into our NAV which, alongside our forecast changes, sees our total risked NAV increase from 93p to 96p.

♦ Conclusion: PetroTal holds 100% in the producing Bretana field, onshore Peru. This produced at 14.2mbbl/d in 2023, driving EBITDA of US$198.3m for the period. Bretana holds a significant 100.2mmbbl of 2P reserves, and PetroTal has a multi-year drilling programme which we expect to take production to approaching 25mbbl/d average in 2027 in the 2P case. We would expect the recently announced acquisition of Block 131 to incrementally add to these numbers. The company has established multiple export routes for its Bretana crude, including barging to Manaus in Brazil, to the regional Iquitos refinery, and into the ONP pipeline (currently offline) via the Saramuro pump station, helping underpin export reliability via diversity. New export routes are also being brought forward, including via the OCP pipeline through Ecuador and Yurimaguas in Peru. PetroTal also engages in significant local social programmes in order to help reinforce its local licence to operate.

The company has a strong balance sheet, holding US$96m of cash (zero debt) at the end of Q2 2024, supporting ongoing CAPEX investment and returns to shareholders, with PetroTal establishing a regular annual dividend of 6.0c/share from Q1 2023, implying a 12% yield at current levels. As such, PetroTal offers investors regular drilling news flow, strong and growing production based on a material asset, significant cash flows underpinned by the variety of export routes, an increasingly established dividend, and a strong balance sheet. We have a positive outlook for the shares, and value them in-line with our total risked NAV of 96

@PetroTal

A new research note out from Stifel today: “PetroTal Corporation (Buy / PT: 107p): 1H24 results: record production rates, accelerating 2H24 drilling programme”. The firm reiterate their Buy recommendation and 107p TP.

@PetroTal

A new research note out from Peel Hunt today. The firm state that’ PTAL has managed its asset base well during 1H and has delivered an operating performance that translated into robust financial metrics’. PH have a Buy recommendation and a 94p TP on the shares.

Nothing on Ecuador pilot. I suppose info to come in presentation.

I don't think they should stop drilling while Bretana is under capacity which I believe is 24K. And then drill and work over to keep production at capacity. Especially as pay back is so quick, even if it's not always 40 days. Maybe they will get to 24K by end Q1 with the new drills and water handling.

We know approval for buy backs comes from shareholders at the AGM and is in place for the following year. And it's often a tool put in place that ends up not used at all by many companies. However in Petrotal's case, we also know that they specifically stated that they intend to buy back up to 14.2 million shares this financial year. That was only a couple of months ago in May. I don't think anything has happened to change that and so I believe they still intend to do that.

However, we also know that Manolo said in August Petrotal would undertake a detailed corporate review so he may be waiting for that before starting daily program of buy backs. Another board meeting. We also know a lot of impactful projects are underway. Ecuador pilot, Block 131 deal hasn't closed, last drill of year at Bretana finishes soon etc. so they'll look at cash flow and plan for next year.

We also have a new finance director which could change the approach. Perhaps they had a debt facility it'd mean having to sit on less cash for a rainy day. It wouldn't cost much if it's never used. At end of Q2, Petrotal had $85m in unrestricted cash, more than enough for the erosion project.

The operational prize I see is minimal disruption from the dry season, 5K bopd from 131 and 24k from Bretana. We have new water well and new processing unit coming up. Water injection on oil wells can be a big production boost. Ecuador export route is promising. And block 131 sounds drill ready ???. Plans must be advanced as they are able to quote a cost? Anyway, hey aren't going to get there this year, but these aren't expensive projects and we have the cash flow. They just have to plan it out.

I've just checked with the q1 presentation. Increase in production to 22k bopd is consistent with 19H coming on stream.

Drilling of 18H was scheduled to complete mid-May and then 19H to drill from then until end of June.

We know they are going to keep drilling because rig isn't being moved. Not sure if next one is a water disposal well though?

Only 6 days of data. But PP report showing July volumes averaging at 22,235 bopd :

https://www.perupetro.com.pe/wps/wcm/connect/corporativo/7318e1ef-aaa2-4c91-8313-7d2090cba5fa/Reporte+L%C3%ADquidos+13.4.24.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&liquidos

Also maybe interesting, Peru and Ecuador discuss oil cooperation:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/peru-ecuador-join-efforts-security-oil-integration-2024-07-04/

22,235

I could moan a bit as I was hoping Manolo was being conservative with guidance and they'd be doing 20k bopd every month by now. I don't think I'm the only one.

But looks like they'll hit H1 guidance with help from 113 after May disappointed a bit. Maybe there was some kind of problem in May with putting 18H into production (we got 5 zero days). Anyway, looking good now imo.

I think block 131 will be next Bretana. And this deal making ability is why Manolo is worth weight in gold. If Manolo creates £2 billion company, how much of that company would you expect him to own. My question is rhetorical.

Manolo doesn't seem to have included the potential of the Ecuador route in guidance.

They've upped the guidance on basis of more barge storage. We know they now have barges amounting to 1.6m barrels. And:

"As you've seen on our corporate presentation, we gave a guidance for this year on the dry season, especially on the third quarter. We are estimating 13,000 barrels of oil per day. Last year, we averaged 11,000, and that's because of the increase on the size of our fleet, which we continue to look at."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4692480-petrotal-corp-ptalf-q1-2024-earnings-call-transcript

1.6m barrels is about 4 months of production at 13,000 bopd.

The 350k trade was just the uncrossing closing auction.

I listened to AGM. Non event. They just rattled through the standard motions in 8 mins with no questions. It's usually an opportunity to mix with directors but can't see many travelling to Calgary?

I think we might get an update in morning along with saying all resolutions passed as that's how they played it last year.

I think they have to sell the story better- I've asked them to get out and do in person investor events.

GGG- I don't mind if capex costs increases if it means more drilling. Wells pay for themselves quickly.

So capex is going up but they are drilling two more wells this year. One water, one oil and we'll get that benefit:

"Therefore, in Q3/Q4 2024 PetroTal is now planning a fifth water disposal well with associated tie in infrastructure, and an additional oil well. Total estimated 2024 capital spend, inclusive of the changes outlined above, will now be in the range of $150 to $160 million, up from $134 million. "

Capex going up but we get two more wells.

So we know that there's 3 wells booked for drilling on block 131. I wouldn't complain if they manage to complete the deal and drill this year. Feels a bit quick, but perhaps there is no planning issue and they can drill horizontally from existing pad.

Sorry yes, you are right, $45 to $55 million next year, but only $20m this year.

So we have higher oil prices this year so far and next year higher production.

Brent fell on suggestion OPEC might increase supply later in year, but all they said is they are open to the idea.

https://x.com/phemsworth/status/1798350190287741376?t=j_uYJzjv0Nz9wDFYaKe0wA&s=19

So far Brent has averaged about $83.50 this year. According to presentation, Brent averaging at $80 for 2024 gives them an extra $10m to play with. Most of the extra capex falls next year, only $20m this year ($20-25m next year). But with the added drilling this year, Manolo said it would "ensure we can produce above 20k barrels of oil per day in 2025" so covering that capex and the dividend should be easier.

Rylidan -4.29 was the trade time, not the trade price. Trade price was 4.17, below mid-price so labelled as a sell.

WalkieTalkie- It's showing as a sell because Bid was 44p, Ask was 44.50 so mid-price was 44.25p at the time. Your trade was therefore below mid-price: trades below mid-price get marked as sells, trades above mid-price get marked as buys.

Market makers have a vested interest in making buys look like sells to scare other holders into selling. Can't say whether this is the motivation, can only say it's nice to buy below mid-price and hope you are pleased with your purchase. ;-)

I don't think they'll update on 18H. It's just a development well, rather than an exploration well. It's not usual unless you don't have many development wells to RNS as it doesn't tell you anything much new. The initial gush isn't that indicative - Petrotal's most prolific well isn't the one that gushed the most in first month.Petrotal reported that 16H initially produced at 7,500 bopd, but 5H initially only produced at 5750 bopd and yet 5H has produced the most oil of any of their wells drilled.

But we should get an update for AGM on 19th. It allows them to speak freely at AGM and answer questions like -'how's that well doing?'

I don't think we'll get any more info on 131 until the deal closes though. But I think they'll update guidance for 2024 at that point to include 131 production. Hopefully with some plans to drill 131 pronto.