Member Info for Somekindofnut

They are long and their interest in pmo is mostly derivatives, so they don't own the stock. I'd say it's quite difficult to manipulate stock you don't own and you can't lend out stock you don't own.

I assume the reason why GS puts out holding RNS's when SP moves is because they are actively trading. Or rather their clients are actively trading.

Reuters says oil is down on G20 nerves;

https://af.reuters.com/article/africaTech/idAFL4N23Y0SS

"LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - Oil slid below $66 a barrel on Thursday, pressured by concerns over whether the G20 summit will produce a breakthrough on trade and perceptions that supply is ample despite the prospect of continued OPEC curbs.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday a trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping was possible this weekend but he is prepared to impose U.S. tariffs on most remaining Chinese imports if the two countries don’t agree.

“A complete breakdown of the talks will have a negative impact on the financial markets and also on oil, but the sell-off in risky assets should be short-lived,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.

“Oil bulls might have to wait until the second half of next week to start firing (on) all cylinders.”...

Yes, market has to be sentiment driven. The market looks forward, and obviously the future is unknown, so price has to be about sentiment rather than facts. I agree trade deal with China would help, but I'm reasonably confident Saudis will keep oil around $65-$75 over next year, even if they have to cut production.

Bearbull, iea forecast global demand to rise by 1.3m bopd.
Https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/reports/2019/0519/

It's doubtful whether US production is rising at all. The weekly figures suggest it is, but the reliable monthly data says shale is flat:

Https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/

So in March, production recovered in Gulf of Mexico from prior month, but shale production is unchanged on Feb. And total US production in March was less than December.

However, the market pays a lot of attention to weekly figures because it takes so long for monthly data to appear. But the weekly production figures are just computer generated forecasts. It isn't real data.

In past however, weekly figures have been ok guide, but they've deteriorated recently.

This weeks macrovoices podcast discusses problems with the weekly figures if you are keen:

Https://www.macrovoices.com/

Iran warns any clash in the Gulf would push oil prices above $100:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-military/iran-warns-any-clash-in-the-gulf-would-push-oil-prices-above-100-idUSKCN1T306X

They are using land routes to Syria because Iranian tankers are now barred from using Suez canaI if the destination is Syria.

But it does look like US wouldn't have any qualms about using it's warships forcefully to blockade Iranian ports and totally control all tanker traffic.

Approval willl be a while yet. They plan to apply for export finance from government agencies (after discussions with lenders) and how long that takes is out of Premier hands. Durrant was recently hopeful of approval by Q4. But might be Q1 2020.

And targets and guidance are set by the BOD, not Durrant. Unusually I think, capex has to be agreed with lenders.

Im very happy with how company is operating. However, they do need to bring in more of the big boy investors, even though it's difficult when funds are under pressure from investors to be green and avoid oil.

But if they keep paying down the debt, by year end pmo say should have average debt levels. IMO Premier shouldnt then be sold off as a risky play on days like yesterday and should be able to attract the typical cautious institutional investors.

Love_you- The text just pulls out a few highlights.

You can examine the data a bit more here:

Https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm

Where you should find that the totals add up.

Toze, Bone drill estimated at about 55 days. 55 days is about 8 weeks. I calculate 8 weeks from 11th January is 8th March. That's a week on Wednesday. Somebody please correct me if I've calculated wrong. Obviously £1 is psychological support level. I blame the 99p bargain shops;). In fact check out fpm chart, £1 support been tested three times in last few months and held up fine. Any dip under a quid wont last imo then so downside limited while we wait.

I didn't know this until recently, but to increase competition, Delek have been told to sell their stake in Israels largest producing gas field before 2020 when their even bigger Leviathan field comes on stream. So Delek have a $4 billion dollar pay day coming. They may regret not bidding for Ithaca when it was 30p. If I was Delek Id borrow so I can buy assets asap, and not wait until they sell the Tamar field or complete the Ithaca sale.

Oil fell yesterday so most oil company share prices fell too. But API reported big inventory draw last night and oil rising again, so hopefully fpm should make some gains today. Really, we want EIA to confirm the inventory draw later today, but this could be start of opec cuts having an effect on the market.

The offer is disappointing, but Im weighing up holding on against taking money and putting it elsewhere. We can hold out for another 30% but I feel I can make that elsewhere too. Ive been buying Enquest. The imminent sailaway of their rig sitting in Rotterdam is worth 30% imo (dyor) and seems a better risk than hoping for more from Delek.

Well, you can either focus on weakness that reserves are limited or look to the strength that there's potential to pick up more reserves for a dollar or so a barrel. I only picked out Austen as an example, you can do similar calculations on other assets. My argument is only that reserves in GSA have been bought very cheaply. Austens reserves have been independently audited to the extent that the field has been explored. Im actually sure Ithaca believe they can prove up Austens reserves further, or they wouldn't bother with it. The execution risk is built into the broker valuation. So Cannacord give Austen only 25% chance of success in their $20m valuation. Vorlich is given a higher chance of success. IMO it comes down to whether you believe in Ithaca fpf1 hub and spoke business model or not. If you don't think Ithaca will buy (or discover) more reserves then there is much less upside here. There is still considerable upside however if you believe that poo will strengthen further. Ithaca is levered to poo. Cannacord add about 40% to their valuation of IAE for $75 oil. The takeover potential imo is not from Delek but from another player with substantial reserves in GSA. So if a major buy Ithaca, they would get all Ithaca reserves plus they get to develop what they have stranded in GSA. But Im not here for takeover or sharply rising poo. That'd be a bonus. I believe they will buy more assets in GSA area very soon because that's what they say is the strategy. This will put a rocket under the shareprice IMO. I think they are only waiting for FPF1 to start pumping and transform their cashflow. Shareholders wouldn't be happy if they were racking up debt by buying up extensive assets and FPF1 wasn't operational. Meantime IMO Ithaca deserves to trade at a modest premium to asset value to reflect the potential that it can buy more assets cheaply.

I may have said this before but am getting dozy in my old age... Austen purchase hasn't completed, but they are vaguely saying its going to cost less than $6m. Cannacord put this in their valuation as worth $20m (risked at 25%). So developed its worth $80m. That's more than a 3 fold return on their (less than) $6m investment. Or more than 10 fold when it's developed. I think this demonstrates how a substantial asset purchase would lift broker valuations. Obvious caveats apply of course (oil price, execution risk etc.)

Canaccord has a 110p price target. Price target is just where they expect share price to go, so it's always wrong. Lol. Their risked NP10V valuation is 106p, unrisked 142p. Unrisked assumes delivery of GSA and Vorlich. The problem is there's nothing in their valuation for fpf1 (worth about $200m to Ithaca I think) or potential to buy more reserves cheaply and develop them. If you assume reserves isnt the limiting factor and PE is therefore better measure, then you can take Canaccord estimate that Ithaca will knock $200m off the debt in 2017 and IMO you can say Ithaca is on very cheap PE valuation.

Yes, familiar pattern is it consolidates for a bit, people start to think its stopped moving up and then it takes another leg up. Oil price looking good.

Malcy picks Ithaca again: "Ithaca has fine management and with Stella about to come onstream the financial side looks increasingly good." Malcysblog

Reuters- "Oil prices rose on Tuesday after news OPEC oil production has fallen by more than 1 million bpd this month, pointing to a strong start by the exporter group in implementing its first supply cut deal in eight years. A Reuters survey showed on Tuesday crude oil supply from the 11 OPEC members with production targets averaged 30.01 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, versus 31.17 million in December. Overall, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries achieved 82 percent compliance with its promised production cuts, well above most market forecasts. Compliance comfortably exceeds the initial 60 percent achieved when a similar deal was implemented in 2009, and the survey adds to indications that adherence so far has been high. "This is very high, a good number," an OPEC source said of the January compliance estimate

I guess Olympic Octopus is at the end of offtake pipe to help hook up tanker. Its a heavy weight anchor handling tug, fairly expensive to rent.