Member Info for Soder

... would buy stock. Buy more stock. And then more stock, with their own money....as an insider....if they thought it was not a bad investment. Guys, post some short term market beta, ask yourselves....is AB an idiot? If the answer is yes you should sell and move on. If the answer is no you should reach downstairs, make sure they are still there, give them a squeeze and look beyond daily noise.

Tjena Pelle. That would make sense, especially towards the end of the year. But they would not exactly say it’s because our banks wanted to cut exposure to us :) either way I am in the long camp and like the story but no rose coloured spectacles here....it’s a risky position. Soder = sodermalm btw :)

Banks rarely care about external ratings. They will have their own internal risk teams and systems. Enquest will likely be treated as a higher risk client as as such hedging lines may be limited to short maturities. Obviously this can change quickly and this is purely just an opinion and an explanation as to why they are only seemingly hedging 6 months forward. I could be totally wrong but just a view.

I think everyone knows but fwiw kraken had a shutdown for bad weather in mid December and then issues with water handling. This was fixed about 12 days ago with production getting back up to guided level for 2019. Unlikely will be a full 550 offload imo as obviously you don’t just flick a switch and start going again. Hence don’t assume 40k. Other assets performing well so unlikely to be any issues with guidance. Oil price still north of 62 so happy on that front. Re hedges, remember you need a hedge counterparty and a credit line. Enquest not considered the best credit risk with banks given debt load so most likely they are limited to shorter term hedging. That’s ok though as if they get a load more hedges off for H2 they will still be throwing off a decent slug of cash. Would love another Magnus type deal if AB can pull a rabbit from the hat. There are lots of assets available and AB is the smartest guy in the room when it comes to structuring deals and creating equity value on the cheap. Forget kraken, this is how you will have your 60p party.

Well the Brent curve moved into backwardation today which suggests opec+ cuts may be starting to hit home and pull the hedgies back into long oil positions.

Isn’t the total outstanding like 1.7bn? You are are missing a zero in your calc KO.

It’s all otc and unless you have the right subscriptions I am not sure you can. Those USD bonds are actually largely held by European funds and traded out of London. The bonds were as low as mid 60s at the start of the year although very little traded there. They bounced with oil at the start of Jan and have met some resistance here although it’s become very illiquid. Next move will depend on oil price and ops update due late Jan/early feb.

They usd and gbp have different capitalisation/ interest payment dates so have different prices. The dollar is mainly institutional and the gbp largely a retail bond that can be purchased in smaller clips. Current prices are low 80s on the gbp and 75 mid on usd.