Member Info for Soder

The weak dollar will be negatively impacting US sales at the moment. We sell in dollars and manufacture and report in gbp and we hit 1.35 last week. Hopefully they have some pricing power to adjust.

Nonsense. You can’t hedge across funds. The Jupiter funds are long only real money with one set of investors. The merian short will be in one of their alternatives strategy funds. It Will be different portfolio manager and more importantly a completely different fund with different investors. You can’t rob peter to pay Paul.

But.. it’s very possible and indeed probable that Bybr sell/short recommendation came from the same analyst within Jupiter. The analyst views will be shared across the Jupiter platform for different funds and PMs to use as they require for their fund strategies.

That’s interesting as Merian are now essentially Jupiter (Jupiter took them over) who have been the persistent large institutional seller from being long. I would assume Jupiter had decent access to management from being long earlier In the year?

IMO this is all the wrong way round. The care home population is not static and has the highest proportion of natural deaths. Every week you will have people die and new people placed into the system regardless of covid. Vaccinating this area population first will be like painting the forth bridge as so many will die anyway shortly (under 1 year) after vaccination. You will just be going round in circles.

Would be better to start by vaccinating the most mobile in society. Not the least.

At the current valuation we are are pricing in all the bad news and absolutely no positives. It’s almost pricing in solvency risk. Which is stupid given the cash pile. My average is 170 so I am way down so I’m gonna have to either double down or sell. No point sitting here hoping.

I am long but that’s a stupid argument. Revenue this year yes but you don’t value companies based on this years earnings. Especially when next year they will be 20 per cent lower. Ever here if discounted cash flow? Revenue is short is irrelevant.

I was long going into the profit warning and am well underwater. The trade has changed for me and I usually would just sell and move on. I’m scratching my head though as to why people would be shorting here and the only thing I can come up with is the messy technical of the trade now owning people instead of people owning it.

Even if I take an axe to earnings next year at m still coming out where we are trading with minutes downside as solvency is not an issue given the strength of the BS and cash/liquidity available.

Take a downside as their annualised run rate revenue of 34m and assume that this includes 14 percent of non core non-PS which continues to suffer in 2021. Then assume they win no other contracts and there is no recovery in minutes per user, price per minute and cross border. That gives you a top line of say 30m.

Assume margins still getting hammered and core PS margins lower and ebitda margin is then 20 per cent. Gets you 6m of ebitda. Hopefully in this scenario they manage for cash and dont lever up or burn cash.

Given contracted nature of PS biz and potential for growth as cloud telephony grows in 2021-2022 it should surely be valued at min 8 times ebitda? So enterprise value of 48m (8x6)

Current mkt cap is 42 plus 2m net debt is ev of 44.

What am I doing wrong? Even in a no growth, no stability, no new contracts environment we are trading at the bottom of that valuation.

A logistical nightmare they would need to keep significant idle testing capacity against as insurance.

Has anyone seen any info on how long the vaccine may last or are the scientists unlikely to know given the rapid development?

Is it something we have once like MMR or every year like flu jab. I only ask as we have flu annually as there is a flu season but covid seems to thrive across seasons given how infectious it is. It also seems to mutate like flu so will create many strains. As such if there is no annual covid ‘season’ of a single strain to vaccinate against we could need to track and test result for this virus indefinitely.

We can be very confident that the chances of blackrock taking an investment in this company without spending significant time with management to understand the operations and outlook are ZERO.

Agree Nitrokev. Very messy data both ways and not an apples for apples comparison between other UK nations never mind other countries around world as we all collecting death data differently.

That’s awful. Truly. How have they managed to **** this up in 2 months. Management overhaul needed.

Whilst any loss of life is sad you need to get some perspective. The death count is anyone that tested positive in the last 28 days. We are currently testing about 350k people a day so over a 28 day period that is 15 per cent of the entire UK population tested. Most tests are being carried out in care facilities (hospitals and care homes etc) where people are dying anyway. In summary, when 10m or 15 per cent of the population is the sample size from a population of 66m it is always going to make it look like huge numbers are dying from covid. Which won’t be the case.

Exactly my thinking lion. Markets will do whet markets do. But fundamentally feels like loop in a good place.

You know the diff between losing money and paper loss wayno? I bet you are the type of big hitter that moves markets.

If the monthly Halifax house price index showed the market was down from last month I swear some people would rush to sell their homes. The glory of a PI is you do t mark yourself to market on ANY assets. You pick the assets you believe in and are fundamentally going to make you a return, then.....you go kip. You don’t mark you wrath minute by minute to the noise of the price. Spivs do that.

In Liverpool approx 90k tests were LFT and 60k PCR. You can’t have LFT without PCR as every positive LFT then has a PCR test.

Mr market was expecting g much more than 4m. This will be why the testing news is coming. The need for testing will go on well into 2022 now as you won’t really know how effective vaccine is in till you hit winter 2021. Even then you are playing a game of chicken. Governments will have a huge supply of just in case tests and test capacity.

Astra saying we will have 4m does by end of q1. Not nearly enough to slow testing down through peak flu season. You need to 2 does so that’s just 2m people. Game on. Test test test.

Can see how not with the testing news coming later in the day. Ignore the noise. Trade the facts.