Member Info for Soder

The plan b will be liquidation/administration. Be prepared for that headline. The company and advisors will try to scare the claimants into voting favourably for the scheme and they will try to show that if they don’t (ie in a liquidation) the secured bond holders will take all the value and they will get f all. It’s hard ball.

Low liquidity in that. Niche sector and obv trading at distressed levels still. Low 60s. Whitebox are declaring a short in the stock and I would be very confident they are long the bond against that as they always do that long bond, short equity trade.

I believe in the scheme all creditors will need to vote? Be careful and definitely keep an eye on the the bond. If it’s in distressed (loan to own funds) hands they have a huge incentive to be a pain in the ass and vote against it to get the keys and take the equity.

Why would we want to add the cost of a totally unnecessary nasdaq listing? What benefits does this give the company over the existing AIM listing? None. Literally none. But it will add $3m in costs and take away management time who will need to be spending huge amount of time satisfying the reporting and regulatory requirements of the exchange.

Just remember, only pussies cash out :)

My view is pretty negative at the moment as I have been burned bad. Im still undecided what to do and waiting for the update. The SP is where is is for one reason, that run rate revenue figure. It’s thrown a huge spanner in the works.

The guidance of 34m with 14 per cent of that non PS means 28m should be pretty steady. We have to assume continued pressure on the non PS part and management rightly should not try to compete at any cost here. Additional PS wins I believe will be at the expense of that non ps revenue so net net you are flat. However, the company have told me that run rate revs is just that, and not their view of revenues for 2021 so I am prob being conservative/negative but just going off the latest public data

Opex will be up in H2 20 and also 2021 as they are investing in people to help convert contracts. As such I think h1 21 may be weak on ebitda basis costs are front loaded well before you get any revenues from new business.

Ian b. Your financial analysis is all backward looking and the market does not care what you did yesterday. What about 2021 which is how mr market is valuing loop. Given the run rate revenue and guidance and continued pressure on the 14% non PS I’m thinking revenues this year (2021) are prob in the region 30-35m. That is less than 2018 and this should be when this biz is flying. That’s not good for a supposed tech growth story. The biz model lacks credibility and management need to come out and tell us where and how they fit in to the new WFH world order.

Hi yrsbs. My understanding is the pipeline is still very very early stage and no track record on conversion. I think they will convert but I don’t expect anything meaningful in the first half and certainly no contribution to earnings given the long lead time between winning a contract and setting the client up. I’m invested. But tbh the ad for a trade based on fy20 earnings and am heavily down. The trade now owns me rather than me opening the trade.

Re The confidence of the CEO I did not get that impression when he responded to my email. Was optimistic but def did not detect confidence in conversion and no frustration about his valuation.

You already have the top line and ebitda from the profit warning rns anyway. Would be surprised if any surprises. I have asked the ceo if they would consider an online investor day to help educate people on the product and the opportunity set and he said they would look into it.
I dont expect any market moving info in the full year flash unless they give an update on the outlook. If that update says the run rate revenues are still a 3 handle this will sink again or at the very most stay the same. Im long and think the valuation is low but the market wants to see jam today and not tomorrow with this one after last years false dawn.

How has the OP got 10 recommends? It’s total nonsense. The difference between ebitda and earnings is HUGE. Using a PE multiple on ebitda to give a valuation is beyond misleading. People should not be using that analysis to make investment decisions.

If you want to use EBITDA you either need to use EV/EBITDA multiples or you can use it in a DCF model to work out cash flows.

You know the E in PE ratio does not stand for EBITDA right? There are an awful lot of things below the EBITDA line before you get to EARNINGS.

I have no idea what a molecular technician is but people have to play their cleaners more than 13 an hour. Tight arses. Nice to see they being tight on costs :)

Handjob has to keep supporting LFTs s he has personally signed off on purchasing millions of them. He is in too deep and can’t, or rather won’t, change course which is scary. Arrogant dumb ass.

There is no guarantee that Ms teams sales comes through and even if it does you are talking 2022 before the revs will hit. Huge lead time after a co tract win and no contract wins as a new biz line. Jam tomorrow. Maybe.

You are missing the point. Everyone can see that on backward looking metrics it looks undervalued. But the crappy trading update guides for crappy 2021 performance. The prob is also not an operational one that can be solved by management. It’s a competitive one and industry one. I’m wrong and underwater. If it management I look for a buyer. You need scale in this industry and think their client list is worth more to someone else than Loop.

Hi troublesome. It’s a pandemic. Unfortunately it happens. I’m maybe a bit more philosophical in that I fundamentally dont believe in the notion you can save lives. You just prolong the inevitable. Given the current spread in the UK the end game is probably in sight within a month or 2 as you have either been vaccinated, have had covid and recovered so have natural antibodies or you are dead. Harsh. But true.

In summary, don’t think/worry about how many pcr tests ncyt will sell in February, in March, in the first half, in 2021, during the entire covid pandemic. Think about how many they can do a year, every year, forever, as part of the governments new permanent diagnostics infrastructure. And that is just in the UK. You can bet many many other countries will do the same.

“Join the dots”

So here we go...,

It means LFT for rapid mobile response during a pandemic alongside lab based pcr for positive results.

BUT, it also means lab based pcr going forward as part of the governments new diagnostics infrastructure. They will test and track for many illnesses FOREVER going forward. They want to put in place a permanent lab based test and early warning system to AVOID another pandemic. Anyone with (for example) flu will get a pcr test. The government via its new lab testing network will be able to diagnose you have flu but more importantly they can also analyse that specific virus further to monitor and track it’s spread through society. They will be able to tell which variants are in different parts of the Uk, the speed of spread of that particular virus, who is being impacted most by that virus, how mutations are evolving. They will also be able to pick up new viruses and anything funky like covid very very very early to prevent another pandemic. The name of the game is test, analyse, monitor. It’s a big data approached to preventing another pandemic. To be in the front foot and not constantly behind the curve and putting out fires.

Do you see why now ncyt is not a one trick pandemic point?

What is this fascination with with a classification that means absolutely nothing? It is a metric for investment so vague and worthless that I refuse to believe it is used by single investor- retail or institutional - for any investment decision.

I get that maybe if ncyt moves to the main market from AIM you pull in further institutional money but this odd fascination with the term mid cap is total nonsense. I means nothing.

It’s worrying how things could go so bad in the space of a month and shows they are just a price taker with no scale.