Member Info for Soder

I am surprised people are surprised. You have seen the flows into global equities reported? We just had the largest 9 week I flow into global equities on record.

If you are a portfolio manager at a fund and have an inflow what do you do? You buy a proportional amount of the stocks in your fund. These types of buys just represent the inflows into the funds.

Careful not to read to much into this. Quite a bit of the blackrock holding it’s in ishares ETFs which will be seeing inflows. As such their buying will be rebalancing trades as the manager will have to buy a proportionate amount of everything in that portfolio just to put the inflow money to work.

Poor Mandy currently having an FCA investigation opened up in her name

The conclusion of that holders list btw is that you want to find dr Ruth Powell and woo her as hard as you can. Her stake this time last year was worth 133k. It’s now worth over 8m. And if you think this goes to 12 again it will be worth 11.5m.

Ruthie. I love you Ruthie.

Not a link as pulling from bloom. But top holders in % as per below. It’s still very fragmented with lots of small holders as you would expect being AIM

Vatel 4.18
Legal and general 3.56
Blackrock 3.32
Eiffel 2.23
Talence 2.07
Harbert European growth 1.8
Ruth Powell 1.35
Sycamore asset management 0.71
Fundrock 0.34
Graham Mullins 0.17

The dilution of creating those shares was what bought the price down in June. But they still own them.

@@@@@@ awesome trade from vatel as conversion price was euro 0.7 per share.

The outstanding debt balance was euro 2,066,257 which was exchanged for 2,952,681 shares. As of this morning the largest holder of ncyt stock was vatel with 4.18% / 2,952,681 shares. So not sold a penny.

Any thoughts on scope and size of dhsc contract. I’m thinking phase 2 not announced as it would not be nearly big and broad enough for what we are seeing in the Ukat the moment. That extension option was negotiated when things were not nearly as bad and there was light at the end of the tunnel.

Roll forward a few months and demand is far outweighing supply for testing and there is no way the government envisaged or planned for this situation again. The light in the tunnel is a train and it’s accelerating.

I’m not ramping but I genuinely can’t see how that initial contract could come close to covering the volume of testing we are now seeing which is going to massively spike.

Time will soon tell but I have a feeling this thing is gonna blow.

The vatel lockup was for ~1m shares March 21 and ~1m shares dec 21. The 800k odd balance had no lockup. It could be them as they still owned it all as of this morning but that would not be due to expiration of any lockup at year end 2020 as there isn’t one.

down the m4 for them is a company called vectura. Just a bit bigger than ncyt at moment but a specialist in inhaled device technology. Would set up ncyt as a medical testing and device business focussed on respiratory medicine.

That’s a hell of a trade by vatel. Obviously they had no clue that the pandemic would hit but sometimes it’s better to be ‘lucky’ than smart.

On a normal stock: price goes up if buyers > sellers. Price goes down if sellers > buyers.

On novacyt: price goes down if the mkt maker senses there are still more $hit the bed day trading retail investors who dont know preferred stock from livestock that need to be flushed out so he can fill his big institutional buy orders.

Backward looking results irrelevant. Everyone knows they will be good. Guidance for 2021 and beyond with confirmation of demand side of the equation is key to a relate and not just a short term pop and fall.

Basically mr market wants to hear the governments are looking for long term testing partners and that we were not just a 12 month pony. I think we get this. But sometimes the market does not see the wood for the trees.

Ten bag nonsense. You lose credibility when you post that.

Was always going to be approved whether it worked or not given the huge amounts of egg-on-face, political, chest thumping capital invested. Sarah Gilbert and various politicians just spent 7 months telling us how they would save us and the world by having the best, cheapest, first to market vaccine in use. Hence they have it all manufactured and ready to inject whether it works or not. Yours.

Even if the mkt is open. There is no one shopping. You can’t judge anything on 28 December liquidity.

Why is that mehta? What is the valuation of ncyt at those SPs and what is the justification for that?

The uk is but one country in our vast network. If and when our product is not required in current volumes in the UK there are literally well over a hundred other outlets who will.

Shaun come on man. Numis were appointed as joint broker in September. Do you seriously think Stefan has not had direct access to management and his model is based on those conversations?

Walshberger just to be open I am very very long this name so not interested in talking it down.

The numis analyst has written a very very extensive report on the company with modelling assumptions which 100 per cent will have (in part) been based on his sit down with management. That’s how institutional research works.

You can check the listing rules your self re requirement and obligation to update market if performance is likely to be different to what the market expects. By “market” I mean the institutional analyst consensus not Twitter rampers.

If the ceo knows the market is expecting you to do 300m in revs and you are actually going to do 700m and you do not provide a trading update before you buy a ton of stock 1 month before year end do you think that may be in bad faith?