Member Info for Soder

It’s retail fast money who not only don’t care about fundamentals... they dont understand and them. A large proportion of investors in this won’t know how a share price is derived from the value of the company or even how to value a company. It’s the market makers job to take adv a the if this and make some money for them as selling creates more selling.

Fwiw I just added at 1.55. Think this is an exciting biz over the long term and I do t care about day to day share price noise. Fundamentally the company is in a good spot.

Yes. As per above. The dream chasers are being flushed out. It rallied far to much based on tips in national press and magazines. The sp did not reflect the immediate fundamentals. If you are a long term investor it’s a good investment but AIM is full of quick retail money who are in companies for a trade not an investment. The market makers are currently flushing these people out. The traders do t care on future prospects they just want a quick buck on a trading update or rns. That did not happen so they take money out and go punt on another name.

I am def going to add this name as I am longer term and thing the fundamentals and story are interesting. But to build the biz will take time.

I’m prob close to adding now and think we do retrace some but would not be surprised if we test 130.

I am a bit confused. I watched the video and also thought this was a new contract. Why is it only coming online 18 months after that rns and why would they not have included in 2021 forecast and f it was signed and sealed 12 months ago?

Just watched this. No brainier investment. Adding tomorrow. It’s literally a cash machine.

The update was pathetic and lacked any detail and substance. this management team need to realise that they are accountable to us shareholders now after the float and need to give us more info. If not, they can be replaced.

Cos all the tourists that bought it from a newspaper tip over new year and don’t know a thing about fundamentals or valuation just got handed their proverbial asses? Am I close?

Was a crowded trade. Long term it’s a good trade but was full of retail dream chasers as soon as it went in the national press as a tip. Pump and dump.

Will be whitebox covering their short. I would bet a lot of money they are Long the bond vs short the stock. They always do that trade.

Consensus from Bloomberg

Revs 35.9
Ebitda 9.88
Operating profit 8.95

For 2021 consensus is
Revenues 32.9
Ebitda 9.99
Operating profit 9.05

Hope it helps. It’s not widely covered so those estimates are essentially just from cenkos.

The current t enterprise value is 295m so it’s trading at ev ebitda of 29.9 which is very very high but would think the market is looking for this to be a 30-50m ebitda biz in 2-3 years. It’s very scalable...globally. But they need to execute on new products and keep momentum behind viroblock.

Technical Analysis. Charts and lines and a averages and indicators. Nope, me neither ..... :)

Dude, if you want a dividend go buy Vodafone.

I think you are probably right. If it did not have a weak shorter term technical I would not be able to buy this at 14. I am a longer term investor so looking over the course of next 6-12 months.

I can only comment on my own analysis but I can say I am pretty surprised I am here. A small cap with a highly levered balance sheet in Nigeria. Yours!!!! Usually anyway. It was only when a friend who has more of an EM focus recommended taking a look that I actually did some digging and was actually very surprised. Lots of pieces to this jigsaw but once the balance sheet is cleaned up this will quickly flow to the SP as optically it will look hugely undervalued on all of ev/ebitda, eps, pe, free cashflow valuation metrics.

But... from a TA perspective you are right. Just look at the way a 15 percent move evaporated today, albeit in a week market. I’m more an investor than a trader so can take a longer term view. Good look though. Always good to see commentary from both Chartists and fundamental investors.

Anyone concerned this is becoming a crowed trade into the ops update. Not saying it’s a crowded investments as that’s a longer term time horizon but there seems to be an awful lot of tourists in this now who are just here to sell into any good news. Who is the incremental buyer on a pop post ops update? It’s making me think that it’s a bit crowded into the update and any immediate move may meet selling. Obviously an ops update with a contract update is a bit diff but if it’s just a backward looking 2020 financial update I’m not sure where SP goes.

Hi sling. I like that you are shorting as that’s what makes a market. You need contrarian views.

Can I ask what is the rationale/thesis for that though please? Excluding any emotion I see a company that is under promising and over delivering. Guidance for next year suggests good operational performance with tight cost control and a focus on capex to improve ROE. It’s also excludes any juice from poss new contract win.

Which part of the story do you not buy into?

Not all of the cash flow is pure operational cash flow as we have at least one non recurring cash flow for lafarge as part of the renegotiation. Either way, with 21 as forecast you can see the biz would be decent cash flow positive and in deleveraging mode.

The market does really like leverage, esp in aim stocks in Nigeria so a lot of investors will not play this until optically net debt to ebitda is probably under 2x. That gives those with some balls and an ability to analyse the financial and model future cash flows an opportunity to buy cheap stock.

But now. Stick in a drawer. Come back in 12 months. Make 2-3x.

PG initiated coverage of Savannah Energy with a buy recommendation and set a price target of 47p.

Average price target across the street is now 49.5p

I have that warm fuzzy feeling about this one come year end. It’s a speculative AIM stock without the speculation. How many cash flow positive companies give you the possibility to make 2-3x your money inside 12 months.

I have layered in small over last week but this will become part of core holding and will increase size. This stock would never usually pass my sniff test as 99.9 percent of the time I would see “Nigeria” and move along. Am actually surprising myself that I like it so much.

I posted this would happen last week. It’s a completely expected and standard tactic for anyone pushing a SOA.

Told you.

This is hard ball. It’s standard tactic for going into a scheme. As a bond holder I have been through many of these and every time (without exception) the fall back option is insolvency and the threat that anyone who votes against will get zero.

I was flat. I am not a buyer.

We are you not just using your 20k isa allowance?

Thanks sharedealer2019.

Did you hear they invented the wheel today too?

The stock will puke when the alternative and scheme proposal are released given how bleak they will make the situation sound. But, the game theory is the alternative is so painful that claimants accept it and move on. I think for this reason the scheme gets approved and when it does the stock will rally. All about timing here for me. Just waiting for the last grenade and I’m in.