Member Info for Soder

Tbh I think it’s one of 3 things in a post covid world. 1. They pay a huge special Dividend and all cash goes back to shareholders with company returning back to small scale. 2. They use the cash to go on an acquisition spree. The balance sheet is v clean so could in theory do a big transformational deal very easily. This would broaden the product suite and provide recurring non covid revenues. Likely outcome in my opinion. 3. The cash sits there and the biz is acquired to be as diagnostics unit within a larger pharma.

I think my base case is 2 and have tried to think about return on equity for deals they may make and modelled some post 2021 cash flows that way.

That’s interesting. A valuation post with absolutely no analysis or attempt to do an ....errr...valuation. At least have a try to put some commentary around why you think current SP is too low and what is this magical ‘mid cap’? Companies are valued on the present value of their future cash flows. Use that as tour starting point.

You can disagree all you want but the fact is that in a 2022 worst case scenario this business was will go back to sales levels seen in 2019 They will have a ton of cash to invest and remodel the business but we dont know what it will look like. You use ev multiples to value business with recurring revenues year after year. This is not that. I’m balls long btw so not talking it down.

Central banks have already stepped up to the plate and have said they will continue to do so. Without them the markets would not be trading close to where we are at the moment. Governments ts will not bring tax rises through for a very long time as they know the re overt needs to take hold. However, stabilising markets should not be their aim. It’s not their job to help you and me make money on stocks. It’s their job to stabilise the economy. Neg rates won’t be that bad unless you own bank stocks. Personally I don’t think we get it but it will probably be good for wider markets and the economy as you will get all that cash sat in people’s bank accounts pouring out of banks and into credit and equity funds/markets and property to inflate prices.

Ev ebitda multiples can’t be used here given the likely tail of in sales and ebitda after 2021 given the current product suite. You need to do a dcf. However even this is tough as we really don’t know how the company will revolve in a post covid world as management are likely to use cash for non covid related acquisitions and to develop non covid related products. This is what makes it all so exciting. We do t know how much it is worth but we do not they have so much options laity and a ton of near term cash coming in.

HL take about 30 mins to answer their phones at the moment. I went nuts at them yesterday as the service they provide is pathetic.

Oh come on. You cant to do a static fag packet valuation on a company that will see a 12 month boom of sales and then likely tail off. You need to DCF cash flows. The business may well develop new revenue streams but we wont all be getting tested so much indefinitely.

Restoring confidence or talking your book? Ncyt dont need to fluff it up for short term share price gain. They are building long term value.

There is some useful informative stuff on this board. Discussion on the products and industry etc. But mainly it’s just junk that comes from the top of people’s head that adds no value whatsoever. Like this threat for example.

Base case for investment here is that every single vaccine will work. The science is very similar (apart from Oxford and Astra) so they should work with similar results to Pfizer. Anyway, assume all the trials announce tomorrow that they work and then assume they start vaccination next week (its never gonna happen!) even in that timetable it’s gonna take years to get the world vaccinated....and you know what you have to do during that time. TEST TEST TEST.

If you need a friend. Get a dog. The is not Samaritans for clueless panicky tourist day traders.

An rns is not vital. Reach inside your handbag and give them a squeeze. It’s not managements job to appease your desire for short term positive share price momentum. They are there to create value and not noise.

Thanks for tip Pete. Im not looking for money multiples. If they come it’s nice but on every valuation metric this is now trading at the bottom of the range so will make money here. The SP will be headline driven short term which is expected but that is just market noise. I dont invest my hard earned capital in noise but solid fundamentals which play out over the medium term. I’m not a day trader.

I’m in at 700 today. Tbh I thought I had missed this when I looked at it with a 6 handle a while back. The fundamentals are near term very solid as there is absolutely no chance Han**** and Boris et al can risk being caught with their pants down AGAIN. They will contact as much testing capacity as they can over the next 12 months a cause if the vaccine fails they will never be forgiven otherwise. Test test test alongside the vaccine which is what you have seen the government announce today. Even the most stubborn amongst us can see that. Margins likely to see some erosion IMO but that’s expected as the response matures. I am more than certain there will be additional announcements from the company with regards to secured contracts over the next few weeks. Long time institutional investor.

I’m long. I like the trade. But that is a nonsense post. They are not one of the top law firms they are just the type of small regional firm you would get to advise on this tiny bolt on. The top firms would rarely do this type of work as the deal is far far far too small.

The prob with this analysis and City analysts in general is that they don’t appreciate the average boohoo punter does not care one bit whether their cheap clothes were made in sweatshops or whether they have an auditor etc. So no matter what ESG orientated institutional investors think from a governance or moral perspective the boohoo train will keep running fast. Sales, ebitda profit will always win. And they are going to outperform whether it is PWC or grandpa joe auditing them.

This thing has the potential to blow big time. The opportunity set is massive and it is still trading at a valuation that assumes we are all going back to the office tomorrow. I don’t think I have ever seen a stock like this. Cashflow positive, huge growth potential and trading at a multiple that gives it away. If loopup was listed in the US it would be worth 5x what the uk market assign to it.

Oh hello. Who would have thought. Think we can safely say this little puppy won’t hang around in low 200s for long.

At 113 EV you are assuming will be zero net debt which I had not done. You are prob right though given cash flow over h2. On a conservative case I have h2 top line at 28m with 66 % gross margin. I have a small uptick in fixed costs from H1. Gives ebitda 20 and ebitda margin for the year at 33 per cent. This is super conservative as I am using same h2 2019 % gross margin when h1 2020 gross margin was 71%. The icing on the cake will be teams. If mr market doesn’t recognise the value another corporate will and you are talking m&a. I will make money on this stock at this level.

Good post. Daily and week to week market noise can’t fight fundamental valuation over medium term. Show me another cash flow positive potentially explosive growth stock that traded at 7x ebitda and I will load up on that too. They just don’t exists.