Member Info for SneakySimon

Looking at Jon Cooper who seems to work at Glasgow uni, they have a combined LAMP test for Covid-19, influenza and RSV - they are working with Mologic to translate this into a LFT.

That will be a pretty impressive LFT - but some months away so no impact to ODX and you never know, we may get the production.....

Did you see David's email when someone asked "why would 150 sample be tested in an evalation lab in USA?

Davids answer: "Because Americans like using American data in their purchasing decisions"

Since it hit 100%, I would say that was a pretty good evaluation and shows we have interested parties in the USA......

I believe it is 48, though I prefer the LSE price showing as 50.50!

It wasn't zero, just lower than expected
'Due to a fundamental issue' - do you have a specific piece of knowledge or is that just a hunch?
Ofcourse there are no antigen sales - we are not making it yet!

Ah, perfect thanks, was wondering if we had some kind of agreement with mologic - reassures me.....

Interesting - missed the Roche one....

Also, AVCT will have a LFT test Q1 next year - they went up today (and up 30% last week) - tells me ODX is missing firm news (not saying AVCT is overly firm but you know what I mean!)

Exactly!!!

The company is expanding like crazy - the spend is high and you would not do it if you were not pretty sure about being able to produce.

Demand is there - Abingdon would not be doing an IPO if demand wasn't there
NCYT would not be bringing out an Antibody test in Q1 if there was not demand

Interesting, Hanc@ck advised that once all over 50's are vaccinated (in Easter) then the shift will move to personal responsibility rather than social distancing restrictions after Easter.

But that is not in Omega's power - the government decide how the vaccine roll-out happens (and the antibody test therin) - we just produce an antibody test (at the governments behest) that you can see very good use for for a vaccine.

How and whether the govt decide to use it is up to the government.

The halving of the SP has been driven by 2 factors
- between Sneller and L&G, almost 40% of all shares have been sold off - L&G took us down about 20p
- vaccine news knocked most covid stocks - that took us down a further 25% on the day
- the BMJ report hurt us again
- add to that, lack of news and we are

If you look at worst case:
- the UKRTC demand is low, maybe just 200k per week
- Mologic does not get to us for some reason

I doubt either of those two scenarios, but we do not have RNS'ed confirmation on either point - only a number of rumors / hints

Just look around:

Abingdon are doing an IPO to increase production of LFT's - doubt they would do that if no interest
AVCT plan to have an LFT for Q1 next year (and there SP is currently up 5% on the LFT tender)
NCYT are bringing out an Antibody LFT test in Q1 next year
LFT govt tender is for @60m per month

The vaccine news has obviously impacted covid shares but the demand must still be there otherwise the above companies / institutions are very wrong!

I've bought some more - we are on the cusp of a lot of news.

There are risks but the fact that Abingdon are looking to crank up the production, NCYT in Q1 2021 will roll out there version of an antibody test tells me that there is business out there - just have to be patient and roll with the punches.

I don't think UKRTC has been forgotten by the govt, its just that this has been 'organised' by the government - they have a producer who can produce a cheap, good quality antibody test - they don't need to make a big hoo-haa about it as all they need to do is figure out the strategy of how it will be used with the vaccine(s).

We have set-up international selling paths - US and India spring to mind......

I think the risk is low, the reward is decent, but I don't expect to see the huge numbers some were quoting weeks ago of £3 etc.

thing is with Mologic, they themselves are producing the test (to a lower quality) for developing counties in the millions.

Secondly, it has been trialed at Heathrow and I believe it is being used again in Heathrow for the Govt trial - its also being tested at some of the drive thru centres.

The fact it is still being trialed suggests to me that it is doing ok, otherwise surely it would be kicked to the kerb?

Got it - thanks for clarifying!!

So I guess we don’t know how many tests £75m are though right?

I am so confused by these contracts - the delivery dates don’t make sense nor the descriptions!

So do we think 75m is the total cost for the antibody tests? any idea how many that translates to?

curious to see how the approval process plays at - with the shortened / limited vaccine testing, MHRA are going to be under a lot of pressure and if this vaccine causes issue, the blowback will be huge for the govenment......

FDA have set a date of 10th December I notice.

L&G have decided to change the investment strategy - selling out of small and medium companies - wasn’t only ODX.

This may be me, but can someone confirm my assumotions on production below? I was worried we are selling UKRTC tests privately and so not able to keep up with UKGOV requirmeents, but in working it out, we can.......

If we assume Vaccines are rolled out equally over the year to all adults in the UK (64m) and each person has 2 antibody tests per vaccine, that is 128m tests needed - or 2.5m per week needed from the consortium, so ODX as 25% producer, would make 615k per week for UKGOV, anymore sold privately.

Sound about right? - appreciate big assumptions......

maybe - we have had 3 weeks on downward SP action (obviously a few rises but overall downward)

Only way to get out and create an upward trajectory is sunstansive news - something we have been short of - lot of news incoming so feeling confident, just need to suck up the drops which means we may revisit the 40’s (holefully breifly)

agreed - we are in need of clarity....lots of tibits - jobs / increase in prod / Mologic test being used in Heathrow trials / Ciga talking about billions of tests - needs converting into nailed on fact - then we will get our rockets!

Add to that a seller (looks like the shares Sneller gifted are being sold now) and we carry on drifting

This shows what can happen - the SP has gone up some 20-30% on no official news.

Just shows what can happen and this should give optimism for ODX - we know we have a lot of news incoming so lets wait and see......