Member Info for SneakySimon

just in a holding pattern until any news comes along - I think it is doing pretty well considering the lack of info since the presentation aside from the FDA news - frustrating that nothing forthcoming from Mr Budd...........

AVCT was looking good on the charts anyway, not sure there rise can be fully attributed to the leak last night - AVCT had a few decent rises recently, chart wise they look good.........

Its more positive to AVCT - shows there LFT is moving forward.

For us, just adds more greyness into what we are going to be manufacturing - like the rest, should be a positive but until solid facts its an unknown!

Has anyone thought of how our antigen tests can be used? They will be capable of nasal or saliva - we will be either first or one of the first to offer saliva - we know that is preferable in several ways so surely that would lend itself to certain scenario's than others?

UK capacity has been non-existant in terms of LFT antigen - AVCT have really dropped the ball in this respect, if they had there test out in Q3 / early Q4 as hoped would have been a differnt ball game.

2021 will be a differnt story - also interesting in this story that Innova demand is high internationally that they had to have resource available quickly to grab the tests - once we get into our stride then boom - should have a nice earner on our hand since the profit is 3x that of the UKRTC test.

TWATCHER - I agree, the UKGOV won't be the source of the largest % of orders - this is just an assumption on my part. I get the impression that upfront the plan was to heavily use the tests but I think the high efficay has reduced concerns and so will be a case of doing analysis of smaller groups to ascertain how long the antobodies last - there will be then a case of advising that people should get re-vaccinated after say 9 months. I am not sure that this is the right approach but seems to be what the UKGOV is planning to do.....

The MHRA home approval will facilitate the largest demand - people privatley buying the tests to confirm that they still have the antibodies.

Fact is, there are two key streams of income - UKRTC & Antigen LTF

- UKRTC - due to govt, we don’t know how many they want or strategy with use. Because of this we can’t commence. selling to 3rd parties. We also don’t know the MHRA decision on home use. Fact is, all we know is we are to be producing 200k per week as per govt needs (though we know Abingdon is producing 500k to 1m per week)

Antigen test - we know the tech transfer is happening - but exact timelines and then sales are unknown. This has been derisked somewhat with the pre-Xmas Mologic CE and more importantly, update on accuracy which exceeds the current product used by UKGOV - hence the rise to 60’s.

Resolve some of the grey areas and bang, the SP will rocket but at present, the worst case scenario is:
UKRTC - minimal UK orders and no MHRA approval
Antigen - takes significant time to complete tech transfer. + no orders

The above I believe are unlikely - for one, we saw the £100m bids as well as positve noises about the test plus Abingdon’s massive focus on the test

LFT wise - its significantly better than the current Innova test and with the covid numbers as they are, all tests are to be in high demand.

as expected, the antigen tests and seems to be a broad approval for any that are approved but DHSC - hopefully this will be positive for ODX with the Mologic test we are tech transferring - if that gets approval by DHSC then game on

I 100% agree Tonic - this it the antigen tests.

I think maybe its a blanket coverage for all the tests approved by DHSC rather than individual.

I read through the code (and the recent updates) and its hard to be clear - I couldn't see any mention of sending back an example (it asks for your home and delivery address) but beyond that, no tell tale clues sadly - seems to have a lot of questions - ethnicity etc so maybe some kind of surveillance tool?

Not been shelved, just delayed if you check the article - this was the govt bring it on itself by using the Innova test first!

The school testing is still going ahead etc, they are just scaling it back a bit to review till end of Jan.

interesting - I suspect this is only antigen, though I really hope it is our antibody too.

This though if only antigen has two positives:
1. Means surely no logical reason why the antibody test would not be approved
2. If the Innova test can be approved, then surely Mologic's (ours) will also get approved as I would expect our sensitivity to be at least as good as almost certainly better

perfect opp for govt to say they have a load of UK ones which are much better!

Jolyan specicially mentioned Abingdon and a contract - Innova has nothing to do with Abingdon.

This must he something to do with UKRTC since he referenced the earlier article that talked about the initial £1m order and the £75m tender - his gripe being no-one else was considered.

Really intrigued to see what comes out tmw - on Abingdon’s website it mentions 500k per week to 1m per week so they are developing a lot of these tests....

"We learned today that the school term in January will be delayed by a week to enable mass testing for school children." - I missed this, where was this stated Tricky?

I'm going with the Mologic LTF since that is what he linked it to in the presentation a while ago - the MHRA I suspect will be seen in 2021 (no basis for that other than it seems to be dragging out!)

I'd suspect that AVCT will be producing in a massive scale (maybe even Abingdon!)

I am assuming that Mologic LFT won't be used at Heathrow - I am though very happy it was used in both trials (the first one then the govt test) as it shows it obviously did well in the first one to be considered for the 2nd trial.

I thought I saw somewhere that airport testing with be PCR / Lamp but I could be wrong.

The fact that LFT's are being talked about in there millions for 2021 - schools / restaurants / care homes etc - if Mologic is decent then we should sell them no problem......

Some weekends it ramptastic, especially on Twitter - then no RNS and drop on Monday. Feels more measured this weekend which I prefer - Friday was a nice rise on rumour, hopefully the Abingdon IPO and other news will come in and further support the SP.

We rose at one point about 15% on a rumour - imagine when we get some RNS'ed facts!

Punit, you crack me up - I can’t tell if you are serious or comedic - I suspect the former.

“The contract is not for ODX. It is for Abingdon.“