Member Info for SneakySimon

Selling CD4 and being clearly in a bad place financially and the public knowledge that CD4 is costing ODX £300k per month does not provide a lot of opps for negotiating a decent sell price unless they get multiple interested buyers.

News to me - who owns it then?

Looks like in reality, not that much if any forward selling and the decimation in the SP was down to the placing being pretty well publicised - look at the chart from start of Jan - its like a ski slope.

The company (Col) provided very positive spin to a lot of things that were perhaps not as mature as he made out. "we will sell all we make" is fine until you realise they didn't make feck all in the end for one reason or another.

Problem they have now with Alva is they have massive capacity but not much make - CD4 and Food Intolerance are the only things selling, but low volumes.

ABC-19 - who knows, ABDX have been ramping it like crazy on Twitter and I suspect their is a demand but will govt allow it? Maybe a tie up with DAM on this?

Visitect is still stuck in the long grass waiting endlessly for approvals?

Maybe this week we will get some clarity on the direction - hoping the placing won’t happen at 5p - that shows how badly things have been ran.

Thing to remember is that no BOD member has lost any money personally in all of this, only the PI’s. Says it all really - as long as they keep the lights on, they can keep coining the money.

Col was digging in the wrong hills while telling us they were filled with gold.

Idiot

All set-up for a lovely FOMO Friday !!!

£500k per month was the rough cash burn I got from the Nov numbers so about what I was expecting tbh.

The last placing was massively wasted - £11m with half having nothing to show for it.

Jag sold his options 12th Feb - £183k

Bill Rhodes was the big seller
12th Feb = £261k
18th Feb = £410k
31st Mar = £237k

Look at the placing done previously and assess how well the £11 was spent

To my mind, £5m of that money was wasted and delivered nothing at all.

A director who has no skin in the game (options don't count) aside from £20k at 54p has no incentive to deliver greatness when well remunerated (£200k PA in middle of Scotland is a very healthy salary)

Last year ODX raised £11m with 19m shares at 40p

Doubt it would be as much - maybe half ??

So to raise say £5m at 16p per share, that would be 31m shares added to the 182m shares already in issue.

ODX in their Q&A tonight stated that if they got HUA, they would have to do a seperate CTDA request.

UK regulatory process is a joke!!

The Q&A will be largely pointless - without approvals, can't talk much about sales etc

I am sure a lot are complaints which will just be given a political answer

The more challenging ones may require some thought but to take almost 4 weeks is crazy - either they are 'busy busy busy', inept or hoping to get an approval and thus have some cover from the criticism they will get?

I don't get the impression that Colin has 'thrown in the towel on covid'

Its a change of approach - ODX will just manufacture (once they get approvals etc) and then supply to others (DAM for example) - essentially outsourcing the selling. Makes sense to me since they have not done great in that respect.

That leaves ODX to sell CD4 and food intolerance ...........

ex-banker is a new account and been spewing garbage for days

OG have confirmed earlier this week that it picks up Omnicron - most LFT should do as they focus on the N protein rather than the mutated S protein. Only test I know that is S protein is AVCT.

Don’t know about £17m but to move from 200k pw to 600k pw cost £2.3m based on the placing.

so 1.4m extra one the same costing would be about £8m unless I am missing something obvious?

Thought I would take a look at how that money was spent and how well the money was managed:

1. COVID-19 - ELISA Testing

Purchase of manufacturing equipment to scale up production
£1.1 million

COVID-19 - Lateral Flow Testing
Purchase of manufacturing equipment to scale up production
£3.0 million

VISITECT® CD4 Margin Improvement
Validation work on new raw materials and processes to lower the cost of goods for VISITECT® CD4
£0.4 million

Expand Lateral Flow Product Portfolio
Intention to develop two tests over medium term:
1) A test for Cryptococcal meningitis
2) A TB-LAM test to diagnose T.B. in people living with HIV

£2.7 million
Repayment of overdraft facility

£1.0 million
Working Capital Estimate

Mixed bag of success - not heard anything on the expansion of Lateral Flow offerings - where has that £2.7m gone?

L&G used to hold about 10% - they were busy selling down and only need to report down to 5%.

my concern is that Colin earns £200k - thats, after tax, £10k per month. What is his drive to make Covid to succeed? He can keep earning his £10k even if tmw he bins Covid tomorrow.

The Q&A last time took 3 weeks to be published so surely due this week? Based on the tone of the presentation, not looking forward to seeing the Q&A if I am honest - was really hoping for some positive new news to distract.......

Not a lawyer, but we are in a strong posittion as we have the money and the equipment, though we can’t use either until agreed an outcome - how long and expensive will that take?