Member Info for SneakySimon

I noticed that - I presume that until the DHSC situation is concluded - ODX seem to be playing more to the book - I wonder if that is Colin following getting burnt from earlier in the year or new BOD faces getting Colin onto the straight and narrow? Maybe he has had his wings cut, hence the presentation around covid was so muted vs previous presentations?

As shareholders, this more factual approach is better, but a tough pill to swallow with an SP that was arguably raised based on a lot of the promises / hints that to date have no delivered?

Situation is either
- yes, it has expired and ODX are confident it won’t be renewed
or
- it has expired and now they want to play by the book in relation to comms having previously been rather flippant with facts

Could you imagine if the 6 monthly they said all was fine, but then a week later have to say it was cancelled and expired previous to the 25th Nov - now that would not be a great look ??

My guess, we can use the govt machinery and if/when Mologic/ Visitect tests gets approved, the govt start buying.

But they have not renaiged on the contrat

- it was extened (maybe muliple times?)
- extension has ended, ODX asked if DHSC would extend - they wouldn’t confirm yes or no
- odx decided therefore contract expired and ended

Maybe their is more conversation going on, but the expiry of the contract is Omega’s take on it - maybe their is more to this that would indicate it was ended?

Agreed, I suspect the extension ran out rarlier this month. Day before interim they check if it will be extended - DHSC won’t confirm, thus legally its ended.

Suggests eitger:
* ODX are not hot on managing contracts - this doesn’t sound a very Colin type action tbh
* exrensions before have been added later, thus meaning a short period where no contract technically in place
* DHSC waited for months for Mologic test to be approved and still nothing

The FOI request will be interesting but not sure you will learn much that can be used against ODX legally.

Bigbangs: the crucial parts are
1. when was the latest extension dated until
2. how regulalry have they been getting extensions - monthly/ weekly or has their just been one
3. If multiple extensions, has communications and work been done during periods previosly where the extension has ended previously

Only part I don’t understand is Colin saying ‘don’t count on it, focused on commercial opps’ yet on the otherside, DHSC have not formally expired the contract, it is ODX taking the view legally it has expired due to not being given a test to manufacture.

Must be something to ODX state is has expired despite it to all intents and purposes still be in discussion. Presumably their is more to this than they are letting on for them to assume expired?

If I take my optomistic hat off, the most likely event is that the extension was to a date pre 25th November, but ODX assumed it would keep rolling (maybe it got extended regulalry?) and when Colin went to check, they wouldn’t confirm - but hard to say if expired or about to expire?

As Colin said:

“ Clearly we have their
equipment on the site and if the situation
changed for them in theory they could ask us to
make a test for them but I would not count on it”

Certainly seems like they have not had official negative confirmation, its Omega’s view the contract has ended.

I am taking that at face value, but it does seem a change in comms from ODX.

Computer

Walbrook emailed the following response. So sounds like they extended the Long Stop Date to an inknown date.

Seemingly either that date had passed and they had continued assuming it would be extended (implies DHSC and ODX belived so). Prior to the meeting interim update, appears ODX wanted to clarify - I find it interesting that firstly they did this and secondly, that DHSC were not in a position to confirm an extension, thus ODX decided it had expired, strenghening the fact the date has passed and both parties have assumed that it would be renewed.

A seperate email I saw diferectly from Colin stated again that because DHSC had not advised on a test yet so their view is that it has ended. He did comment “ if
the situation changed for them, in future in theory they could ask us to make a test but I would not count on it”.

Certainly feels like more to this than meets the eye - I get the impression that ODX since some new blood run a tighter ship want to be more black and white about things.

The following is what Walbrook sent:

The original manufacturing contract
always had a longstop date of 1 April 21,
which signified the end of Phase 1. This
Long Stop Date had been extended
previously and Omega were in ongoing
discussions with the DHSC that both
parties assumed would confirm a further
extension. Omega sought to get clarity
ahead of the Interim Results statement,
but the DHSC was not in a position to
confirm their position on the further
extension. The Company's legal advice
has since confirmed that without any
confirmation of a further extension they
should consider the contract to have

Avct failed due to the frozen samples - MOlogic failed due to usability (hence the method has now changed)

The exclusivity to DAM is the professional test only.

If they get home test approval then they can sell that to anyone.

I have been umming and ahhing all night about what to do. I expect potentially another drop as a lot of PI’s have been hit hard and so may decide enough is enough - Colin’s presentation didn’t instill a great deal of confidence.

I take that CTDA surely won’t be an issue - and if / when we get HUA then things will start to happen (this is backed up with similar comments from AVCT and NCYT).

Against holding, the rest of the business isn’t much to get excited about and Colin is not striking me as overly competent tbh - so its approvals or bust for my holding.

One of their 7 or 8 tests has been approved (a PCR test) - soms starting to appear on the list so hopefully ours soon.

Seems Colin has created a bunch of insomniacs out of us!!

it was a great contract - extra equipment, money up front - the previous one was binned due to the method of the contract being awarded by the government and the legal case coming up.

I am intrigued what the situation is over at GAD who got the same deal and the govt equipment........are they also in the same position?

agreed - they would be mad to write off covid tests - if they get CTDA, that would suggest 200k per month to DAM as a starter. That would immediately improve their revenue.

Get self test and the door opens wider and since Colin is in a more cautious mood (and Medusa / AVCT said similar) contracts are their and waiting if they can get this pesky HUA which has taken ages, though Colin did sound fairly positive to me on that front, though emphasing he didn't have a timeline.

gotcha - I missed that part, ducking in and out of real work calls......

I hope it doesn't - I have 65k of shares in this crappy company!! Be nice to at least breakeven at 54p..........

We still have the govt machinery - so they are going to ask if it can be used commercially - though presumably that would come at a cost or some sort.

COvid was downplayed somewhat - I think Colin getting burnt so much on it, until approvals best for them to assume it won't happen is the gist I got.

and that Walbrook advised that the conversations were still ongoing with DHSC, so sounded almost like both sides assumed it was a sort of 'gentleman's agreement'

Some serious questions need to be asked on what went wrong here and only to realize on the day prior to the interims?!?!?!

I take it more that he has the tests - all that is left is approvals then leave the selling up to DAM......at least that is the gist of what I get.......

he loves CD4 but even if it really takes off, will only be few million per year.

Intrigued how he will play it - will he double down or clarify as many are hoping that it isn't 100% dead in the water as the RNS this morning implied.

His presentations are not renowned to be overly positive and the RNS'ed update certainly around covid was not positive so we will see.

I look forward to the days where we have approval and then DAM are in the driving seat for sales and as a bonus, we will get some positivity from them.

Exactly

To put that in the RNS today 'contract expired' sounds like DHSC has actively decided not to complete the contract. Reality is that it is flexible and they won't commit either way - that's a big difference IMHO and should have at least been explained - it was obvious that that would have a massive impact on the SP. If they have over egged it, wow, that is not good at all and I feel bad for a lot of people - esp as HUA is supposedly 'good'