Member Info for SneakySimon

the fact you use the word 'imminent' on an ODX board makes your proclamation of the timescale of the approvals even less useful

thats why I am about 50% down ????

My strategy is to wait for CTDA which I assume will come first - that should bump us up a bit.

Then see where we are at then - the HUA makes me nervous as if that is declined, we don’t have much of a plan B - the DHSC contract needs Mologic test and FDA seems some way away.

I have an average of about 55p but considering options - ODX have failed to deliver so far - in part let down by GOVT (ABC-19) and unlucky with approvals (Mologic failing at PD).

My research is fine but the two biggest issues blockers have been things outside of ODX’s control. DHSC contrsct maybe could have been managed better, but we will never know.

I am still unsure - heart says stay, brain says derisk - not decided yet but plan to take a couple of days to decide.

Here is my theory:

get CTDA (ie professional use and we get maybe 10% - 15% back, though held back with
get Home Usa Approval - we get a rise of say 50-75%
Contracts start to drop and continues to rise

So yes, but need the approvals

New board members from start of H2, the company feels like it is maturing from the previous which lets face it, was pretty infantile 'Incolinwetrust" BS etc

I strongly get the impression the company is pushing forward and being more professionally and this is a small part of it. CHanging the Twitter handle isn't exactly a huge change so not too concerned.

Isn't their a rule that directors can't buy in if significant news within 14 days or something?

yes, the overdraft was interesting.

At last placing they paid off the £2m overdraft that they had, keeping the £2m facility - now want to increase it to £8m.

I am trying to reassess ODX with fresh eyes and the fact their was no explanation did make me wonder the reasoning - were they anticipating that they would need short term lending of that magnitude?

true - pocket change vs what we should be earning but keeps it going to when we finally get the approvals......

I literally just checked

It though does not pop as before as the top search in either people or 'Top' - something is going on thats for sure.......

The extending the overdraft was interesting - you would do that to cover short term cashflow, so suggests they are potentially expecting that if they have a prolonged period without approval or DHSC want their £2m then they can flex that.

I don't expect a placing unless we reach March and no approvals / sales. The DAM £750k and the OG £500k keeps the lights on in the interim......

renamed it to @omega_ODX

Considering how low GDR was - the May 2020 placing was at 80p so they were a 1/4 of that price and another placing at 25p recently.

I comparison, thats like ODX dropping to 10p and then getting up to closer to 18p.......

"The Alva plant must be like the ‘ Mary Celeste‘ today."

No, we are busy packing for a competitor again - we are good at that!!

Good product but cons
- expensive
- while it can do a result in 7.5 mins, it has a certain capacity so not suitable for mass testing unless you buy multiple of the units and have multiple resource - I could see its use in say a hospital etc

Sounding more positive on the SOA front - the dilution was always going to happen with FCA wanting the shareholders to share the pain - just depends on how much, but med to long term, this is still a great potential.

and this time customers have to isoate until they get result - won’t be popular - I know a few people who have trips in December, already paid for LFT - can’t get a refund and now having to buy pcr (£45 each) as well as isolate until they get result.

unknown at present - someone posted on Twitter that ours focuses on the N-protein so hypothetically should be ok but until Mologic confirm, its an unknown.

I felt it was more of a seperation of the business - ODX focus on non-covid and Lansdown / DAM deal with Covid which Colin all but conceded he struggled with.

This is set-up perfectly for Lansdown / DAM to appear to get the train back on the track and win the day (and the new BOD members).

Trying not to be too be ‘rose tinted spectacles’…….

You wait, they will add whether tests can detect Omnicron to the validation piece adding another month or two ????

I disagree

Surescreen were to manufacture their test (they have been)
GAD & ODX manufacture Mologic test

Hit a brick wall when our test failed at Porton Down.

Either the commercials or something didn’t work out, who knows but it boils down to Mologic test not being approved in the UK for HUA.

Commercials then needed to be agreed between ODX and the other companies but since those companies have decent caapacity, would you let ODX manufacture your test for less profit for the same customer than doing it yourself (ie ODX would want a cut of the profit)

Thats my take on it anyway………

As we keep saying, it all boils down to approvals again and again and for whatever reason, that is taking time.

Positive I do take is that we still have govt machines and DHSC hasn’t confirmed expired.

Also, despite Colin downplaying covid element of the business significantly, the approvals for CTDA and HUA sounded like close to completion