Member Info for SneakySimon

Interesting - is there much info from Abingdon advising of usage of the money etc?

agreed - I got the impression that data was in progress, though he didn't say explicitly say how long

I need to look into that, but I got the impression that was a few weeks to complete?

in fairness, he would say that!!

100% this - we will just drift (drop on any vaccine news).

Need clarity on what the 2.5m capacity will be split going forward - Colin stated minimum of 200k per week for UKRTC - as we have seen, it seems demand for that is test will be huge based on the CIGA infomation, thus some clarity will help but sadly, thats not in the hands of Colin - I am sure he has an idea behind the scenes but can't peddle 'probables' until they are fact.

Just need patience and it will all become clear and a welcome re-rate will occur.....

I disagree - end of the day, we are a factory producing tests for other people.

Colin is limited in what he can do - what can he accurately say to promote ODX? Until confirmed signed orders, then he can't say 'oh, we will be getting millions of orders from the government, its just to be signed?' - ofcourse not

He can't say 'oh, we will be producing millions of antigen tests" as again, no orders and he can't say 'Mologic have told me'

This is exactly why the SP is being held like this, until facts are provided you and I do not know that in say April, how that 2.5m capacity will be utilized and this is the crux of the problem - get the facts out there and bang, suddenly SP will move.....

Vaccine wise - these vaccines have been pushed through quicker tests than normal - I would assume the the following:
- year 1 supply and administering would take time to vaccinate the country (thinking UK only) = testing needed
- we don't know how long the vaccine lasts = testing needed
- we don't know if you are still contagous and / or the vaccine merely reduces the impact or kills it = testing needed
- a number of people won't take it due to health concerns - I think I saw in the region of 25% in the UK = testing needed
- add to that, the vaccine effectiveness will it seems not be 100% (and we await to see what it is at the target older generation) = testing needed
- the testing has been done solely on healthy people aged 18-85 who have not had Covid before - will the MHRA / FDA approve a test to be used on someone with say lung cancer / diabetes / pregnant etc = testing needed

Thus, testing stays and supports this roll out of vaccine for the next 2-3 years at least hence the govt is providing tenders for that period. Antibody testing will probably last longer IMHO.

That is exactly my thoughts - Abingdon and Omega don't have the capacity so will surely have to outsource - then if they take maybe 15p per test, that will be a nice earner!!

Check out the CIGA Healthcare tweet about the Astra Zeneca vaccine and the UK-RTC ABC-19 Rapid Test - last line:

"Almost 3m billion Oxford AstraZeneca vaccines have been pre-ordered. It is expected that the demand for the UK-RTC ABC-19 Rapid Test Kits will far exceed this number as a repeat testing will be neccesary to insure ongoing resistance"

Nice!!

I love trading on charts, but ODX and several others are not easy to accuratly chart since they are so driven by news - Mondays and yesterdays could never have been predicted and likewise, something like MHRA or Mologic news dropping.

A chart tells you sentiment which at present, you don't need a chart to tell you..............

I think the drop is a combo of things
- LG sell off (unrelated to ODX)
- Vaccine info which has dented all covid stock
- ODX lack of clarity (which until orders, they can't give) - we know they are raising production but have no idea on what they will be producing - how much and who for

Once we get clarity on #3, we will be ok but I think that may take a bit of time, but the MHRA and the tech transfer from Mologic will be the first catalyst's

daveri007

"unless I have misread the current situation it looks like Omega are now just a manufacturing fulfillment house with no or very little IP....coupled with the professional use only antibody test and not for home use I feel uncomfortable with this investment!"

Its always been a factory - we make tests for others Abingdon / Mologic (hopefully!) - we input into the design but don't own the IP unlike say NCYT / AVCT / GDR for example

its not a dodgy test!! - the report out today has been firmly rebuked and shown to not be accuracte / comparing apples to apples, thus can't be relied upon.

Colin hasn't in any way misled us - PHE ordered a million - surveillance
MHRA approval and then more orders from Govt

Think of it as two seperate customers almost

I know I and most people got into Omega for the UKRTC / antibody test but now, the Mologic antigen test will be the biggy - id almost go as far to say I would rather (if an option) to only produce the Moligic test - its more profitable and less attached BS (BS as in we are part of a consortium / govt control / applying for MHRA approval)

So, lets be totally clear here.............

The Guardian article has been strongly rebutted as being inaccurate reflection of the test
We know the govt like the test and are ordering it
We know that the consortium is applying for MHRA approval for home use and the Ulster study was what was submitted and met the MHRA standards

Basically, nothing has changed

Also, the presentation on the 28th Oct showed the production of Antibody tests to be 200k per week - the rest antigen test...........

I think some of his other cases have merit with friends of Torys getting contracts - a £130m contract for PPE from a company that was only opened up a month or so before!

This one, I really don't see the legs in it - they set-up the UKRTC to supply an antibody test, they did that - end of story - can't see it as being too shady?

Excellent post........point 5 totally nails it.........

5. BMJ state’s that the analysis of the AH antibody test specifity differs from the companies - however this is where it gets interesting...they state that in order to test the test they didn’t use PCR positive/negative result subjects but instead decided to use ‘ as known positives unselected key workers with no PCR confirmation of infection but a positive antibody test with the Roche Elecsys anti-nucleoprotein assay—they estimated an even lower sensitivity (84.7%, 80.6% to 88.1%) of the AbC-19 assay.5‘

they really can't RNS much tbh.

At the risk of putting down Omega, we are a factory manufacturing the product - Abingdon Health are the 'inventors' and came up with the magic mix to be able to sense antibodies - our job is to build it as per the design - the accuracy etc. Add then also to the mix the govt / UKRTC element, it would not be appropriate for Omega to strongly refute above what they did.

I can guarentee, there are calls going on between various parties - Abingdon / DHSC / Govt etc about a suitable response - also remember this is in court so legally they also have to be careful!

I did wonder why when Colin talked about capacity for the Antibody test, despite the huge increase in capacity (from 200k to 2.5m) the UKTRC element was shown to remain at 200k - I suspect that when Mologic came along with the antigen test, as a company, they prefer to focus on that due to greater demand and profit per test?

Thanks - I saw something about them increasing to 15m capacity for LFT or something (which after Monday improved my battered mood!)