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So the eve of tomorrows RNS I’ll be looking for 2 things:
1. What happens to US inflation when it’s announced this lunchtime. Hopefully lower than expected which will give the whole market a boost.
2. Any large ITX buys

GLA this time tomorrow we’ll be digesting the RNS with our breakfast!

I also have the feeling this Wednesday will be something special. There are lots of reasons for this:
1. Likely upping of 2022 revenue target
2. Update on consolidation plans
3. Notable increase in shipments of raw material
4. Promise of new customers/products in H2
5. Continued diversification
6. Continued repeat orders
7. Continued new patents

John Shaw has gathered an audience of analysts at 2pm and then investors at 3pm. He has something he wants to tell us!

My hope is that Wednesday’s anticipated share price increase will not just stick but continue to go up beyond Wednesday as it did in Spring 2021. LTHs will remember how quickly the share price rose to 17p and the company has come on leaps and bounds since then. I also expect a good afternoon across the stock market if as expected US inflation falls.

Out of curiosity I had a trawl through Twitter to see who else was following Itaconix. The list includes:
Jamie Constable - Market Strategist at Singer capital markets
Emma Ulker - an analyst focusing on healthcare at WH Ireland
They are in good company with Thordon!
Would love to be a fly on the wall of the analyst meeting to see who was in attendance. Clearly as Itaconix grows it is building up a following.
@WarrenBuffet - yes perhaps more than just an RNS. Mind you the 2021 interim report contained a lot of information and updates and I’m looking forward to more of the same and answers to some of our questions.

We’ll timed Verney! Yes shorts been burned this week. Like you say still time to get in if they’re quick. Next week could be epic. More upward momentum on Monday and Tuesday and then the shiny new RNS lands on Wednesday morning. This feels like waiting for Christmas Day. Wishing everyone a good weekend and week ahead. GLA

Surfie if you do your research you will realise how relatively modest buys or sells significantly move the Itaconix share price. On the last trading update in July we hit 7.4p per share with no upgrade to revenue forecast. As you point out we’ve had a 17% increase in the past 2 days. That increase is based purely on the fact that there’s going to be an update next Wednesday, so no actual news to report.
My comment came with a big “IF” at the start.
Anyway not long to wait now and I’m sure everyone else will be hoping for the positive scenario I outlined.

The current price target of 12p is on $4.7m revenue for 2022. ‘IF’ Wednesday’s update reflects what we have been speculating about here then I expect a new improved revenue and price target and to see the share price in double figures by this time next week. That may sound wishful thinking but we all know how how limited the share float is and it really won’t take that much to get the share price heading back to where it was just over a year ago. GLA

At present the only broker forecast we have is FinnCap (12p).
This implies there are now other analysts following Itaconix which would be significant especially if this results in their issuing Prices Targets.

Mulling over the likely reason for the Analyst meeting and the company’s apparent desire to engage with Analysts more so than previously. Why are analyst meetings held (source Investopedia):

“At an analyst meeting, the company executives provide information about how the company is performing and its future prospects. Executives may also provide in-depth information about the financial status of the company, and detail different forecasts of future performance.”

“Topics discussed at analyst meetings range from merger and acquisition activity, divestitures, exciting new products, services, or alliances, and general accounting and financial management issues.”

Quite a wide range of topics to choose from but I think most of us LTH’s have sensed something big is coming and maybe next Wednesday is that day!

Well this has peaked my curiosity. At 2pm an analyst session for the first ever time which will be prior to the usual investor session at 3pm. Presumably this means there will be additional analysts following Itaconix and giving share price targets. That would be a major development.
Also for investors a chance to ask about the consolidation.

Thanks Frozen and AJP - clearly great minds think alike

What a pleasant start to the week. We don’t usually get an Itaconix RNS on a Monday. 2 questions spring to mind:
1. What are air care products? Are we talking Fabreeze type products?
2. Wonder what the additional new product is?

And the winner of post of the month is Thordon! This is an absolute treasure trove you have discovered. Thank you!

Another reason to be positive which I don’t recall being previously mentioned is the devaluation in Sterling. Whilst this has a negative impact on the cost of raw materials it has a positive impact for companies such as Itaconix who derive the majority of their revenues overseas and in particular in the USA.

The £ has fallen 17% against the dollar in the past year and is forecast to continue falling (so perhaps another reason to stock up on raw material). Some say the pound and dollar may even achieve parity which would mean another 15% decline in sterling against the dollar.

As a side note this also makes Itaconix even more attractive to a larger company looking to acquire Itaconix. Cheap share price, great exchange rate, incredible Intellectual Property and Patents… who wouldn’t want Itaconix?

If I was being conservative I would say it’s hedging against inflation and uncertainty in the global supply chain.
BUT I don’t think it’s just that. My gut instinct tells me something big is going to be announced soon. My portfolio is so Itaconix heavy now but I’m still tempted to plough more money in when the price is as low as it currently is.
The only fly in the ointment is the refusal (so far) to up the forecast for H2. I don’t understand that at all after what was achieved in H1. I also don’t know why the consolidation hasn’t occurred. However the massive orders unearthed here balance those negative thoughts and tell me I should trust my gut instinct.

Thanks AJP that is excellent news. Very bullish from Itaconix and also good future proofing against inflation and potential shipping delays

Excellent research Dougerboy. Do you know how much they have imported this year compared to last year?

Truly a great buying price! On Friday 884,000 shares changed hands which equates to £44k. That resulted in a 5% drop!
Folks that is music to my ears.
Why?
Because if such a small volume based on no news can effect a 5% drop imagine what % increase big volume based on good news will yield. We’ve all seen it in the surge up to 17p in May 2021.
At these levels I will fill my boots with every bit of money I have left over from my pay packet.

Hi Rorschach, it’s good to see both risks and opportunities. With Itaconix it’s important to remember that its revenues are reoccurring and literally “baked in” to the formulations of products. So companies can not suddenly stop using Itaconix. Also Itaconix markets itself as providing an environmentally friendly choice which does not cost more than the alternative. In fact I’ve heard John Shaw in presentations talk of being more price competitive than the alternative.
Itaconix have and are continuing to diversify into many different types of products so that will help if one particular product usage were to fall.
Personally I think we are moving out of a bear market towards a bull market and now is the perfect time to buy technology shares which I class Itaconix as for its incredible portfolio of patents.

1. New customers
We know there will be at least one new customer in H2 but I think this is conservative and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see 2 or 3 new customers during H2. I would hope these would be announced in RNSs as they would see the share price up.
2. Consolidation
When this finally happens it should trigger an RNS
3. Trading updates
4. The unexpected eg anything from new products to a new partnership

I’m inclined to agree with JD. I was expecting the consolidation to have occurred by now. That and the refusal to up the 2022 year end forecast despite outstanding first half results. To me it almost feels like they are buying time and want to keep the shares cheap at present. Why I can’t figure out. I’m sure big news is round the corner but it will be when it suits Itaconix.