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On reflection I think it may be a broker to broker transaction. If that was a buy it would have sent the share price up by at least one pence and vice versa if it was a sell. Unless the share price movement isn’t reflected until Monday morning due to the timing of the trade.

Wow! Yes AJP that’s definitely a buy, I was tracking the prices throughout the day trying to decide when best to add. Sadly that last mammoth buy isn’t mine. That strongly suggests the trading update will be next week.

Just added 50,000 shares. Roll on next week

I would also add that AIM listed companies who don’t give regular trading updates do not fare well as investors are nervous beasts. Investing in small cap companies takes a lot of guts and belief so we don’t need any unnecessary uncertainty.
So if anyone from the company reads this bulletin board I suggest you get your finger out and publish a trading update next week.

AJP that is a plausible but horrifying thought. Last year Final Results weren’t available until June.
As a shareholder I would not find it acceptable to be kept in the dark from the last H1 trading update for almost a year.
However I am surprised the trading update hasn’t landed and it is now into delayed territory. I hope this is just because of the appointment of Paul Leblanc as Audit Chair and his new responsibilities.

The last time we had a trading update later than this was 18th February 2019 so it’s possible we could be waiting a while longer.

I think there are 2 likely possible reasons we haven’t had the trading update yet:
1. As per my previous posts Itaconix have only recently appointed a new Audit Chair and he will have to sign off the results.
Or
2. The company want to provide H2 and another piece of news. I feel quite optimistic that this other piece of news would be something positive relating to the 5th January comment “ As Itaconix enters a new phase of development with its rapid revenue growth…”

Yes they seem to like 26th January as the date for the H2 trading update so likely tomorrow but you never know, it could be next week, so you could be in luck.

I did wonder if the appointment of a new audit chair (Paul Leblanc) might delay things a little. We will see tomorrow morning.

Good find AJP. Interesting that they were working on superabsorbents 15 years ago. Just shows how much science and IP there is behind everything Itaconix do.

Very quiet trading so far today on what could be RNS-eve. Wonder if we will see a late buying spree. I think it’s odd on we get the update tomorrow morning unless they stick to the 26th of January (Thursday). No doubt I will be waking up like a kid on Christmas Day hoping Santa has been.

I’ve managed to squeeze in one last top up of 28,000 shares before the trading update. My stocks and shares profile is now heavily Itaconix so I’ve definitely put my money where my mouth is lol

Welcome Scarpa and what a good time to take the plunge. This is by far the best company share chat around that I know of, with loads of valuable contributors who give a good balance of opinions.

JD this is a very good point and I am inclined to agree with you. This ties in with the last FinnCap forecast which I posted last night. Essentially the message for 2022 seems to be growth at a cost. So I too expect cash reserves to be depleted and you raise a very good point - where will the cash come from to fund growth in 2023?

If revenue is higher than expected in H2 2022 the question for me is does this improve the cash position or make it worse? We will soon have an answer.

On a more positive note 2023 is forecast EBITDA break even and if we are ahead on revenue and gross margins have improved then we may move to profitability sooner than John Shaw previously alluded to. The markets are forward looking so much will depend on the forecast for 2023.

Reading the last FinnCap research note on 14th September it’s forecast for 2022 had positives and negatives:
“We have raised revenue expectations from $4.7m to $5.2m, reflecting progress in commercial volumes and price raises, with an improvement in H2 gross margins and some additional opex costs resulting in a $0.5m increase in adj pre-tax loss to $1.5m. Year end net cash is now expected at $0.2m. In FY23, we have increased revenue from $7.6m to $8.0m, conservatively holding forecasts unchanged at EBITDA breakeven.”

(Elsewhere in the report they state they expect improvement to 30% gross margin in H2).

So the positives forecast are:
- Increased revenue
- Improved gross margin

But the negatives forecast are:
- Increase in pre-tax loss
- Reduction in year end net cash

Perhaps this serves as a helpful reality check prior to the upcoming trading update.

Thordon any idea if there any scope for Itaconic Acid to be used by Bemis in their bonding solutions or alternatively any potential collaborations you can think of?

Totally agree AJP. There’s some chunky buys going in. I think by Tuesday the share price will be up a fair bit in anticipation of a trading update on Wednesday, though of course there are no guarantees when it will land.

It will be interesting to see what happens to the share price following the trading update. I think it will all depend on just how positive the update is. i.e. is it just a satisfactory update in line with guidance or is it something more spectacular that reflects the progress we believe the company is making.

I think we’re now anticipating next Wednesday as the likely trading update but with Paul Leblanc having only just been appointed and one of his roles being Audit Chair, is it possible that the trading update could be a bit later?

I obviously welcome the presentation and Q&A sessions but I would prefer that they did not tie them in with the results announcements. Reason being is that gives day traders notice the results are coming in a weeks time and they pump the price and then sell off heavily on the day.
Therefore I hope the trading update lands fresh with no prior warning and they then arrange a presentation session a week after the results are out.

By my calculations based on today’s trading it only took around £30,000 of net buys to lift the share price by 1 pence. Just think about that.

With 68% of shares held by insiders and institutions that leaves 32% of shares floated but of these 54% are held by institutions so that leaves less than 15% of all shares to private investors like me and you. That’s how the share price rocketed up so fast in the past on good news and why a strong trading update could have a profound impact on share price. 15p to 20p a share might sound like pie in the sky today but it could be here a lot quicker than people realise, and longer term I have much loftier hopes and expectations. GLA and always DYOR.

Agree that seems to be the pattern AJP, assuming there is going to be a presentation. If no presentation, it’s possible we could just get the results in the morning. I’m waking up every morning excited that today could be the day! With the change in general market sentiment on stocks and crypto the timing of the update couldn’t be better!

I was mulling over the recent appointment of Paul Leblanc from Bemis Associates which is extraordinarily good news for Itaconix. As CFO he must already be incredibly busy (and already well paid) and I did ponder why have Bemis Associates agreed to this? Undoubtedly he will be able to guide and support Itaconix through its new phase of rapid growth and as Audit Chair that would give him the best insight into Itaconix finances.

So is he just doing Itaconix a massive favour perhaps because of mutual associates or is there more to this?