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Which trading platform are you trying D19?

In the July 6th capital markets day presentation the stand out moment for me was the CEOs vision for the future right at the end.
That is to create two bio-refineries (one in New Hampshire and one in Europe) where Itaconic acid will be produced and refined, “…supplying the world out of these 2 integrated facilities. That’s what really gets me excited.”
That got me thinking how will they achieve that in a reasonable timeframe and my personal belief is that they will enter into a mutually beneficial partnership with a big player which enables the required scaling up. Itaconix are brilliant but they are too small to do this on their own.
So when I read each RNS or watch their presentations I have that thought in my head to better understand what is happening in the background. All IMHO.

I’m today’s RNS for the IP Group, if you take a look at section 10A KEY MANAGEMENT TRANSACTIONS - Key management personnel held shares in the following spin-out companies as at 30 June 2022 as follows)…

You will note that 3 directors at IP hold shares in Itaconix. The most significant being Mark Reilly with 377,358 shares. During the past 6 months not one share has been sold by any of the 3 directors.

Saw the 100,000 sell so jumped in and bought another 16445 shares at 5.12pence.
Paraphrasing Gandalf the Grey “Buy you fools buy”

Current share price great. Just bought another 18,497 at a bargain 5.3p per share. Absolutely no red flags in last trading update so I will continue to top up at these prices knowing each day takes us closer to another positive RNS

Excellent results from Croda again. Reading through their RNS this morning there’s lots on improving the sustainability of ingredients which highlights the great opportunities Itaconix has:
“We are reinforcing our sustainability leadership in four ways; firstly, increasing the level of bio-based ingredients, in response to customer demands to 'de-fossil' their ingredients;”

80,000 showing as sold this morning over on the Aquis exchange.
Here’s my theory which is pure speculation: If Itaconix wanted the shares to pop now they would have upgraded their forecast. I do not believe their forecast has not changed after taking $3m in H1 and looking at their projections for 2023. Come on do the maths!!

For whatever reason I’m speculating they don’t want that to happen just yet. Maybe incoming board members or investors are wanting to add shares cheaply and given the limited shares available that takes time. But you can’t keep the lid on forever!

Personally I feel this is the calm before the storm and Itaconix is suddenly going to take off. Usually when it’s this quiet there is something unexpected around the corner.

Yesterdays Fed update signalled the end of the Bear market in my opinion. Technology stocks of small companies like Itaconix have been hit the hardest in the Bear market.

I must admit I’m very curious why the conversion hasn’t taken place and feel there is a good reason for this which we are not aware of.

On a positive note there appears no prospect of a fund raise this year. If that was in the plan for the near future they would have bumped up the 2022 forecast on the back of the H1 trading update.

Feeling very bullish on Itaconix. Just need to wait patiently.

I think the share price drift was inevitable when they chose not to raise the guidance for 2022 despite the outstanding H1 results. Until we get further RNS announcements the share price is unlikely to budge. Not that I’m in any rush and I’m sure there will be further positive RNS announcements to follow in the near future

I feel that an RNS about a new customer or product is coming soon.
I am curious why the consolidation hasn’t taken place yet and wonder if they are waiting for an upcoming good news RNS before they flick the switch. £1+ per share would probably attract more US investor interest.

Just shows that those who pull their weight succeed at Itaconix whereas those who are not get removed as per the recent AGM. Signs of a healthy company. Will be interesting to see who else gets added to the board. Hopefully a top notch external candidate to keep things fresh!

5.9p to buy Itaconix this afternoon. That’s back to pre-trading update levels. Will wait to see where the bottom is next week before adding more cheap shares.

The Finncap Half year trading update for Itaconix has just appeared. Surprisingly is states no change to forecasts. I do find that odd. With one or more new European detergents coming to market during H2 do they seriously expect Itaconix only to take $1.7m revenue in H2?

Interestingly FinnCap haven’t yet given their update on Itaconix as they usually do following a trading update. I’ve checked and it wasn’t even mentioned in their morning note. David Buxton is their analyst for Itaconix and he is around this week as he’s issued other updates this week. This makes me think they are currently re-considering the forecast revenue of $4.7m given that $3m has already been achieved. I imagine they would want to discuss any increase in the forecast with the company before issuing an update and hence the delay. Pure speculation of course but it will be interesting to see what comes out in due course.

Well said Monteacute - Itaconix is definitely not Trotters Independent Trading lol.
For any recently joined new investors I would strongly recommend obtaining a copy of Finncap’s 33 page Company Note on Itaconix published on 10th January 2022. Within the document it states…

“Valuation: We consider that the current share price considerably undervalues the group’s medium-term potential. To unlock this value the group will need to demonstrate further commercial progress with additional production contracts. The growth potential and profit upside are huge, and this has yet to be recognised in the valuation. We initiate coverage with a price target of 12p, founded on the confidence that over the next year the group will reach material commercial milestones that will act as catalysts to the shares.”

Given that Itaconix have already ticked off $3m of the estimated $4.7m estimated revenue for 2022 I think it’s fair to say that the company is achieving / exceeding its commercial milestones.

I wonder if FinnCap will issue an updated Company Note and Price Target in light of these impressive H1 results?

@JD lol. Agree today has been a joke. I was considering top slicing some of my investment if we hit 10p today but that didn’t transpire so I’ve just added some more shares at 6.29p.
Following JS’s positive announcement on the day of the AGM, traders were prepped for today’s positive trading update and carried out a classic pump and dump. None of which is any reflection on Itaconix or the incredible trading update for H1.
I believe H1 marks a massive turning point for the company as it’s now reaching the levels of income necessary to turn a profit moving forward. The amount of sticky recurring revenue and fresh new business is increasing year on year to get us to this point.
All this is without the super absorbent products!! JS has previously said they have tripled the addressable market for Itaconix.
Positive catalysts to look forward to:
1. Further RNS announcements when new products/customers come on line. Europe seems to be growing fast at present.
2. Consolidation which is likely to bring in new US investors
3. At some point the broker will up their forecast from 12p.
4. The unknown. There will be a lot of eyes on Itaconix after today’s bumper revenue growth.

The future’s bright the future’s Itaconix.

Ilika is a long term investment and like most tech shares is currently being hammered by the bear market. However as we move out of the bear market in 2023 that coincides with the first orders for Stereax which has massive potential and these shares should rapidly turn around. Still not sure on Goliath as feels late to the game and as you say feels like a money drain. Personally I would focus on Stereax.

Yeah I think the share consolidation will come soon. I think there’s some shortsighted day trading occurring today for those not familiar with Itaconix. From recollection the last time Itaconix went on a run into the high teens there were several step ups in share price which occurred over many days following a positive trading update. i.e. there was no one big bang. Itaconix behaves differently from larger cap companies where you get a positive result and then a Big Bang on the day. Instead once Itaconix gets into a positive flow will f sentiment, as it undoubtedly now is, the tight and limited free float propel the shares higher moving forward beyond the day of “good news”.

The significance of a more than doubling of revenue really can not be understated. The H1 figure gives massive credibility to the company’s and broker’s growth forecasts. The increasing revenues will also lead the company into net positive revenues very quickly for a company still in the early days of growth.

As per the figures Molson has stated below only 83k cash burn is a massive improvement and given what JS has said in the trading update it is highly possible that H2 will see net positive revenue.
“The Company expects a more favourable blend of product mix and raw material prices in the second half of the year, together with some sales price increases.”