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Whether you believe this is heading up or down the levels of volatility in this share are increasing day by day. Each time there’s a mini rise a bigger fall follows. This company will never fail but ask yourselves who stands to benefit from a further fall in SP. When this falls to a low enough level it will be bought out.

DOW will drop at least 400 pts on opening but has a lot further to fall this month unfortunately

Let’s face it Amazon can afford to buy anyone they want and it would be a logical move. However, given the current turmoil is anyone going to be buying before the dust settles? Maybe!
MRW are by far the most exciting UK supermarket on the stock exchange and the recent results were excellent if you park the bit about dividends.
There will be more collaboration with Amazon one way or another.

- TV studios back in action
- Possibly surprise announcement on live football next week

I do believe IAG will recover a bit of ground over the next month but beyond that predict a second wave hits just before BA gets flying again. This will be devastating for the share price.

I bought in at 192p thinking this would soon go up but I admit I got it wrong. This is why I believe this will keep falling:

1. Share price down to 174p today on back of 6% economic contraction in March. Imagine the fall in a months time when April’s data is released showing a circa 25% fall.
2. General market sentiment will be negative over the next couple of months until we get to the post lockdown data around August time.
3. Airlines are particularly at risk because
a) political uncertainty on quarantine not just in uk but every other country in the world
b) a complete lack of co-ordination between countries. Heck we can’t even agree within the UK!
c) even if all the above issues were miraculously resolved, no-one knows what appetite the public will have to travel until a vaccine is in widespread use
4. The current price assumes flying numbers will be on an upward trajectory from July. If there is a second spike (highly likely) in the UK or elsewhere it will be back to square one and we will soon be in the winter flu months.
5. There is a high possibility that flying numbers will not see a meaningful increase until Spring 2021

The chancellors extension of furlough to end of October couple with the health secretary’s ‘don’t expect an overseas holiday’ are much worse than I had imagined. IAG shares currently priced on 50% volume in July. Clearly that isn’t going to happen. Best case scenario is looking like October half term hols but worst case is Spring 2021 because we will soon be back into the winter flu months. Sadly I’m taking a small loss this time and will come back in a couple of months as regrettably I think 150p is on the cards.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/884171/FINAL_6.6637_CO_HMG_C19_Recovery_FINAL_110520_v2_WEB__1_.pdf

Government has sensible stated in their that “ the Government will require all international arrivals not on a short list of exemptions to self-isolate in their accommodation for fourteen days”.

I expect the short list of exemptions to be most of the EU, Australia, New Zealand and so forth.

Very different to the blanket quarantine being scare mongered!

Any chance IAG are one of the 20 companies bidding to take over Virgin Australia?

No surprise stock opens up. The nay sayers need to get on board while the price is this low or miss out IMO

No surprise stock opens up! The nay sayers need to get on board while the price is this low!

No chance! Buy of the century if it does!

Might be a short lived drop early tomorrow but I expect the shares to bounce back quickly. Look how much shares in United States airlines bounced back last week. All this talk of quarantine will mean the industry gets its arse in gear and comes up with a sensible plan to get flying again!

More details here ...
https://www.irishnews.com/news/uknews/2020/05/10/news/quarantine-measures-will-not-apply-between-france-and-the-uk-1933561/

Bloomberg reports “the measure will not apply to travelers from France, according to a joint statement issued after a call between Johnson and French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday“.

I anticipate by the time quarantine is introduced it will not apply to the majority of EU countries who have the virus under better control than we do!

Will see what detail follows tomorrow but from this evening’s speech it sounds like the govt are still in discussion with the airline industry as to what quarantine will entail. Relieved the govt hasn’t backed itself into a corner!

Hopefully he can teach the government about running a successful business. Knowledge they seem to be lacking in!

1. The markets were aware of the potential 14 day quarantine over a week ago.
2. IAG have already written off May and June
3. Virgins demise is good news for IAG
4. The airline industry will agree a compensation package with the govt to pay for their policy, whether this is an extension of the furloughing scheme, relief from other charges, or other bespoke charges.
5. This development marks the start of getting planes flying again and I expect the airline industry to rapidly develop more sensible but equally effective safety measures

Sucks for the staff but there is a reason BA has been around so long and will continue to survive in the future. The govt’s daft and reactive 14 day ‘quarantine’ policy which isn’t actually ‘quarantine’ but self isolation demonstrates why BA are taking the unpopular actions they are. They are prepared for stormy seas over the coming months and they will come out of this a leaner more efficient proposition able to expand where profit margins justify expansion.