Member Info for Slift

PMO had $1.97b net debt, not 2.7b.

What's the relationship between debt and production rate?
I don't think there is one lol.

Resource upgrade how?

I personally think PMO deal was a good one. The alternative was worse.

PMO had a market cap of 140m at 15p/share.
The "alternative" deal was to raise $530m via rights issue. PMO did not state the discount that the shares were to be offered at. Let's assume 30%. That would have diluted shares by circa 540%.

Of let's say 6b total shares, creditors would have owned 34%. Shareholders with 66%. PMO would still have had 1.8b net debt.

In this new deal, shareholders have 24% equivalent of PMO (creditors 76%) and 5.45% of the combined group of PMO and Chrysaor (with no PMO equivalent debt).

Just IMO.
Slift

and oil recovery!

On what accounts will HUR get this?

As it stands, highly unlikely due to:
- Downgrade in assets
- Uncertainty
- Downgrade in cashflows

But things may change with implemented solutions.

Thanks for these regular updates laidback.

Lol downbutnotout.
Is this a competition or something?

TSSZ,

Why the share price is so low?
All oil stocks have been affected in line with what's going on with the world.
- Supply/Demand issues
- Trump in hospital
- COVID cases rising
- Economies shutting down
- etc.

For Tullow, there are currently two short term uncertainties:
- RBL re-determination (Tullow had to get approval from lenders for an amendment on covenant)
- Uganda sale completion.

Until these both happen, there is an immediate risk of the company defaulting.

Davstock,

I don't think we should worry about this at all, or at least i'm not worried.
I don't quite know the reason why the confirmation to the completion of this sale is delayed. Could be project based, could be ongoing talks with the Gov, could be the final approval by Gov, could be anything.

But a few things to note:
- From half year results: On 6 August 2020 the Government of Uganda provided their consent to the transfer of operatorship from Tullow to Total.
- The pipeline agreement was between Uganda's biggest shareholder (Total) and the Govs of Uganda and Tanzania. I.e. if this sale doesn't happen, Total will not be the biggest shareholder. Tullow has the right to cancel this sale (and hence this $3.5b pipeline agreement with these governments) if they wanted to.
- Q4 has only just started, Tullow stated Q4 completion.

Expect*

Except Q3 trading update w/c 19th.

Hurricane starts offloading around 500k+ barrels.
Next offload is likely to be end of next week or the week after.

https://allafrica.com/stories/202010020900.html

618k barrels is maximum capacity of the AM.

"Everyone is against Shell and BP at the moment due to their changing strategy"
I think everyone is against Total's strategy of being a "Responsible Oil Major" right now.
Apparently, they have this huge oil project in Uganda, and they're planning a huge oil pipeline through Uganda and Tanzania that will displace thousands of people from their homes. Apparently the pipeline will also run through Uganda's biggest national park.

Let's just have the $575m and we'll be on our way :')

scrodingerscat,
"The way I see it is Coal for instance has one purpose, you burn it and it releases energy in the form of heat and gases yet it is still bought, sold and used today in 2020."
Yup, and it will also be used in the future as the world or at least the developed countries will look to continue to diversify electricity generation - Energy security and all that for consistent, sufficient and affordable supplies.

Likewise, transport will be no different. It will be diversified in the future to include petrol, diesel, electricity and (other) types of vehicles for the same reason.

Wonder what would happen to the grid if everyone plugged their EV into the power socket every day and night? Guess we'll find out!

bluemoon71,

40 years later, in the 2010's when I started my degree in Chemical Engineering, the course was tailored for the "future" and was advised to specialise in nuclear, renewables or biotechnology as oil will be running out in 50 years.

I think people forget that oil is required in almost all products throughout their lifecycle.
Only challenge to fossil fuels is "cheaper" energy solutions. Even then, oil is driven by supply and demand so price of oil will always be at an economical level, unless ofcourse companies develop technologies that allow for very cheap exploration and production - which to date there haven't been many.

I wonder how long the world can produce EV batteries before there is a severe scarcity in rare earth metals. At which point, the world will yet again be looking for another solution.
On the environmental front, disposal of batteries will take the place of carbon dioxide.

Right now, there are incentives to "renewable technologies". Sooner or later, they'll be taxes for the disposal of harmful substances to the environment (e.g. batteries). Probably even increased taxes for mining resources and environmental destruction.

Afterall, the government will need to raise money through some sort of tax if fuel tax and other environmental taxes associated with fossil fuels are no longer generative of revenue.

Jubilee (Total)
July - c. 90k bopd
August - c. 90k bopd
September - c. 87k bopd

TEN (Total)
July - c. 50k bopd
August - c. 52k bopd
September - c. 50k bopd

Non-operated portfolio (Tullow's Stake)
July - c. 24k bopd
August - c. 21k bopd
September - c. 20k bopd

Average for Q3 - Estimated 76-77k bopd.
As it stands, Average for FY - Estimated 75-77k bopd.

Production is still looking to upper end of the guidance for this year based on my estimates (a little conservative). Wouldn't be surprised if Tullow narrows guidance again following Q3 update.
However, H2 is unlikely to beat H1 performance unless Tullow achieves similar uptimes and increases Ntomme-9 well production significantly from current 5k bopd. Even then, Tullow would require favourable gas offtake, water injection and general increase in production from other wells.

ALL IMO. GLA.
Slift

Brent oil at $42+/barrel.
Both WTI and Crude at 200DMA, either breakthrough soon or retrace.

EIA crude draw -1.98m
EIA gasoline build +0.683m
EIA Refinery Utilisation +1%

Uganda to commence negotiations with oil agreements:
https://kampalapost.com/index.php/content/ugandas-oil-ready-hit-market-says-museveni

RBL announcement soon.

GLA.

JET47,

Personally, I think this is a good acquisition.
50% stake in a mine that will produce 3640 tonnes/year LiCO3 (net to Erris) that's at advanced stages of developments, and 1.35m eur cash.

And at what cost? - Dilution of your stake by approximately 70%.
I.e. total amount of shares in Zinnwald Lithium will be c. 130m shares

Zinnwald Lithium has a NPV of 428m EUR.
However, Erris will also be diluting shares further through placing at 5p to raise funds for this project.

So will have to wait and see what happens. Medium term, share price will rise as the development of the mine advances.