Member Info for Slift

I've been studying your behaviour of you studying the trades all morning.

I can confirm that you've wasted your time in studying the trades all morning.... :')

"So if Biden wins and reverses the first two policies then it stands to reason that the price of oil will actually rise?"
IF...

On the other hand, if Trump wins, then the US economy is LIKELY going to be booming for another 4 years.

23rd October is the deadline for satisfying the conditions. The satisfaction of the Tax agreement can come after.
Outstanding condition that requires satisfaction:
Approval by Government of Uganda for the transfer.

If not completed by then --> all parties involved will need to agree to extend the deadline.
If extension is not acquired, then the conditions are not met and deal cannot take place.

Other consequences of this:
- Agreement between Total and Gov of Uganda regarding Uganda pipeline is not valid
- Agreement between Gov of Uganda and Gov of Tanzania regarding Uganda pipeline is not valid
- Other agreements between Total and Gov of Uganda regarding the Project without consent from CNOOC or Tullow is not valid.

23rd October is deadline for completion of Uganda transaction (as it stands).

RandomUser

"if someone owned £100K of PMO shares (and the share price did not go up or down on that day) then would they still be left with an investment worth £100K or would it be considerably reduced?"

You have not considered the investment being considerably higher :')

But the market will adjust itself between now and merge date to real value of combined group. First, let's get the deal approved.

I think Tullow previously mentioned the difficulty in TO of the company due to the number of African governments involved.
With Uganda sale, it will be one less so, there is an opportunity. But a merger or takeover at these levels will definitely not provide the true potential of this company going forwards.

If refinance/restructure talks do not work out, then TO/merger would be beneficial. But as it stands, potential of Tullow going forwards will be presented at CMD.

I believe the Anardarko Ghana assets were around $2.5-3b. But with multiple companies interested in these assets and with oil price recovering, who knows how much these assets will go for.

@Nickel_Investor
We'd have to be really lucky with oil prices to get a drill at Guyana in 2021. If all works out, we might see one well in Orinduik in late 2021.
But i'd imagine majority of next years' exploration budget is spent on Suriname. Other CAPEX will be spent on Ghana.

Just IMO.
Slift

Dickbat,
That's up to the bondholders.

HUR's assets have been devalued, and their future cashflows is questionable with just one well operating with declining production. There is uncertainty in increasing producting with production enhancement option. The forward activity plan hasn't even been provided to investors by the company.

But i'd imagine the forward activity plan is what they'd try and use to secure funding (either extending the CB, or securing new funding). But it all depends on if bondholders will accept that. It is never that easy to just "roll over" any type of loan without approval from bond/note holders.

@buyinmay,
Not been furloughed thanks :). "working from home" till 2021 :')
Man, i'd hate to have your job if you work on the weekends :) (No offence to anyone else)

The Loch Tay assets maybe had a value of 200-300k EUR at notice of acquisition of Zinnwald.
All other current assets includes Erris' other portfolio and their office space, equipment etc. This would be c. 2m EUR.

Whilst Loch Tay is one of Erris' important asset, it's still in very early stages of exploration. Unless more work is done to continue exploration and discover and define resources, this asset will not be valued correctly and will only be based upon the capital expenditure.

Duncan_Thickett,

Yes more or less, I've still got that opinion (based on oil price rising and production enhancement being successful at Lancaster).
The value of this company depends on a lot of factors and also the uncertainty.

One factor being oil price which HUR cannot control. But imo, oil price will rise in the near future.

The other factor(s) involves HURs forward activity plan and how they plan to utilise the resources they have available into reserves at minimum cost.
Whilst HUR may only have 9M barrels reserves left (subject to economic limit - it's more like 3-4M barrels as it stands), they have 58M barrels resources at Lancaster and 45M barrels resources at Lincoln.
The uncertainty being how will they be able to fund and utilise these resources.

The bond is also an issue for 2022. Whilst Multibagger2022 below has given a good overview of HUR's finances and production, he has missed a couple important info.
- The first being the restricted cash HUR assigns to pay interests on bond (bond coupon) as well as AM lease and other commitments.
- The other being how will HUR repay this? Let's assume that HUR spend all their cash on production improvement for Q2/21. They will have 1 year to produce $230m positive cashflow... Too far in the future to be certain.

All the above is somewhat priced into the current MCap, but will increase/decrease as HUR provides updates.

Just IMO
Slift

Loch Tay asset value would be investment to date.
I.e. the amount of cash Erris has spent so far on the asset.

If they find resources, the value will go up accordingly to the amount of resources they find.
If they don't find any resources and the asset is a write off, then 0 value and no return on investment.

Nice one Steve.
Hope you have spare cash just in case you have to use it in case of dilution mate.

As it stands, seems like Petra will come out without admin, but at the cost of shareholders and their asset base.

Lazygun,

Yes ofcourse, the "swap" will be 1-1 based on their last day of dealing. But for simplicity, Erris have taken share price on announcement of suspension (6p) and have split this up between Zinnwald and Erris Gold Resources - taking 1p towards Erris Gold Resources so that the Zinnwald shares are in line with the placing price of 5p.
In the Acquisition Update RNS, Erris has valued these shares at 5p being the Placing Price.

But the actual price of these shares depends on what the market thinks and wants it to be. We will not know the actual price until 29th October, following which the market will price in assets, growth and potential of the company aswell as shares in issue.

But what i'm concerned about is how will Erris keep investors interested between now and 2024? By the sounds of things, it's just going to be cash raising until commissioning in 2023/2024.
Will they be keeping investors interested by providing the relevant bidding/engineering/procurement updates? (Though I don't see much value in doing this)
It's just very strange have one development asset associated with the company.. it's a risk as the whole company depends on that one asset..?

So record date for divestment is 27th October with ex-divestment date being 29th October.

At this point, Erris will have issued:
- 38,836,787 shares in Zinnwald Lithium Plc to shareholders at 5p/share placing price (£1.9m)
- 38,836,787 (private company) shares in Erris Gold Resources to shareholders at 1p/share (£388k)
- 90,619,170 shares in Zinnwald Lithium Plc to Bacanora at 5p/share (£4.5m)
- 75,000,000 shares in Zinnwald Lithium Plc to "The Company", The directors, Allenby Capital and TPI at 5p/share (£3.75m)

Total:
204,455,957 shares in Zinnwald Lithium Plc at c. £10.2m
38,836,787 shares in Erris Gold Resources at £388k

Wonder what the actual market cap for the company will be as there's a lot of potential to grow.
The completion of this project and commissioning will take place in 2023, with ramp up production to take place in 2024. So a lot of fund raising between now and then it seems like.
How will management keep shareholders still interested between now and then since no return for shareholders until then..?

Timeline below for Zinnwald Lithium:
Q1 2021 – Q2 2021: EPC bidding process
Q2 2021: commence detail engineering
Q4 2021: commence long lead equipment procurement
Q1 2022: commence site preparation works
Q4 2023: commence commissioning
Q2 2024: ramp up

Look forward to opinions.

Dickbat,

Fair enough. I'm not going to question your investment as you've clearly stated and explained why you've invested and why you believe HUR has potential. I mean they are all valid reasons in regards to the resources in HUR's portfolios and there is certainly potential in these if HUR is able to monetise them.
I hope it does work out for you and that the forward activity plan is positive for growth of the company.

I'm actually intrigued about the comment I made on gold and silver (I can't remember a time I even made a comment on gold/silver). I cannot find it unfortunately.

Wow Dickbat, glad I irritate you mate :')
I don't think I understand all, but here to learn :)

Thanks for your thoughts on the oil industry! I completely agree with you and your motive in investing into oil.
Now what's the motive for investing in HUR currently? You're betting on the oil industry with 9m 2p reserves??

"which you don’t which you proved on your comments on gold and silver"
What?
I'm very interested to know what my comments were on gold and silver.

onthebeach3,

"even when the oil price is going up which is relevant to any producing company, you are ramping it on the TLW board big time"
No, don't think so. Oil can do what it wants to do. I rarely comment on oil prices directly on any board.

But think what you want, makes no difference to me :')

@Dickbat,
Wow, do I really trigger you that much on this board? Glad that you get triggered reading my posts :')

To answer your questions:
Hurricane owes me money.
I'll be here watching and waiting for an investment case before I buy into.

Why would I move on from a company that I have done research on?

Why are you accusing me of being a shorter?

I never de-ramp.
How do my comments or posts come across as de-ramp to you? Because they don't sit in with your agenda or ramping day in and day out?

"What’s everyone going to say when they report “whoops actually it wasn’t as bad as we thought and we have hit another vein and volumes are back to original projections”"

So.. are you saying that the management is clueless and wrong with what they've reported?
Why are you investing in an incompentent management/company then...?

"Toxic Slift have had their weekends ruined"

You're seriously deluded.