Member Info for Slift

This is great news.

This RNS has now provided Tullow with a lifeline.
Tullow will now pass January RBL re-determination.

Now, the future forward programme is what matters to establish value in this company. The CMD should provide more details on this that will give more details on creating value from all assets.

GLA

Yes, all of a sudden a "Master De-ramper" for pointing out who the blatent rampers/punters are.

Anyone know where these rampers are at?:

Tuxedo8
eurofil
onthebeach3
Elementary
MaverickD
gregpeck7
buyinmay
NeverSayNever1
NoRskNoReward
PlantedBHA
More4Less
Transformer1997

lol
*fall in place

Stuartv,
Sorry to hear, I hope things change for the better for you going forwards. You deserve it :)

A lot of optimism and discussion here over the weekend. Some people here don't seem to understand the importance of the Uganda deal bringing TLW $500m proceeds. This deal is important for January RBL and going forwards. TLW is no way out of the woods even with this deal.

Whilst these proceeds are important and newsflow regarding the deal is optimistic from Total general manager interview, proper confirmation will come with an RNS. Without this, you could argue it's all speculation.

Personally, whether we get this RNS this week or near end of year it doesn't matter as long as the deal completes successfully before the end of the year. I'll happily welcome the RNS confirming the completion of the deal or an extension to the long stop date.

"TLW GOING CONCERN.. READ BEFORE ANY INVESTMENT."
The Directors assessed Tullow as a going concern in March 2020. This assessment period is for 12 months. During this time (March 2020), Tullow's liquidity was really questionable and whether RBL will provide Tullow with enough liquidity following Y2019 disaster with reserves.
Thanks to cost cutting and operational performance this year, conditions have improved. This Uganda deal will further improve liquidity and provide more support that Tullow as a restructured company is a going concern.

The going concern assessment period is 12 months - i.e. ends when FY20 annual reports is provided in 2021 which will likely be provided in February or March.
As it stands (assuming Uganda completes), I forecast a shortfall in liquidity of c. $90m for the March 2021 RBL. Now, Tullow are able to waive this RBL assessment following January RBL (Subject to confirmation by lenders).

Also between now and March, Tullow/market conditions may do any of the following to meet the shortfall:
i) Oil prices may improve and forecasted short term/long term oil prices may be updated which will allow Tullow to meet shortfall
ii) Tullow may adjust financial commitments for 2021/2022 or more cost savings
iii) Another asset sale
iv) Cash raise (or refinance/restructure)
v) Other.

We will know whether Tullow is still a going concern following CMD and January RBL. Until then, let's hope the small things for January RBL fall in piece: Production is maintained, Oil price improves, Completion of Uganda sale etc.

GLA.
Slift

Shedful,

I got put with a small profit on Wednesday, I did say I wasn't going to hold onto HUR and will get out at first opportunity.

May buy back here in small holdings if price continues to drift. But as it stands, better opportunities in the oil sector elsewhere.

Good luck to you if you're still in here.

I think sentiment might be changing in the oil market soon.

With Q3 earnings upon us (for supermajors and other oilies), the market may have been underpricing the oil sector.
Supermajors have already started their consolidation after dropping to new LOWS in the last 2 decades. The share price may make a move based on sentiment following earnings, or in anticipation of earnings. This will obviously have an impact on the whole oil sector.

To further support this, oil stockpiles have been reducing. On top of this, the OPEC JMMC is scheduled for the 19th October where they will discuss future plans on curbing oil production, or demanding compliance between the members.

Whether HUR will be affected, i'm not too sure. But since this board is based on HOPIUM alone, there MAY be some HOPE in the short term.

GLA. Have a good weekend.
Slift

onlyprofit,

I don't blame you. The optimism in the oil sector is dwindling each day. I'm still surprised that Pharma sector is still performing well.
I know COVID19 is centre stage, but to think that each and every pharma is exponentially rising because of a COVID related project is just crazy. That's markets for you.

Good luck to you there.

Scrodingerscat,

I think Canarywharfy did persistently give a good argument as to why Uganda should be kept. I mean they weren't wrong in an IDEAL world (or cloud cuckoo land), as Uganda would have increased value to Tullow and it would have been another great asset to have.

For now, Tullow are simultaneously working on:
- Further Asset sales
- Lender refinance/restructure talks
- CMD for raising cash from investors

I do hope that Tullow are able to demonstrate future plans and unlock value at Ghana/Kenya at CMD to be able to secure funding or restructure successfully.

I personally don't want to see another asset sale unless there is no other way.
It just depends on whichever comes first I suppose.

ALL IMO. GLA.

Agree DarkEnergy,

As it stands, there are very weak fundamentals to this company. But I think it's the "hope" that Hurricane can get funding to develop assets that's keeping value up here.

Canarywharfy,

Just thought i'd reply to your posts for discussion points/some corrections.

You were part of the 0.01% that voted NO to Uganda sale.
Now, that you've seen the position Tullow is in.. Do you still stand by your vote to say Uganda sale was not required?

"while ebitda is around 1400 to 1600 millions (revenue), debt is around 3 billion (2 times ebitda x2 gearing not 3 like the CFO says)"
I think you'll find that EBITDA for this year (following Uganda sale) will be between 3.0-4.0x as EBITDA does not equal revenue... it's been a harsh year.

"We don't need to sell assets we should be raising more capital to refinance our debt from commercial banks (or through a debt issue from an investment bank)"
You make this sound SOOO easy..
Banks need some kind of insurance that their debt will be repaid. Why would banks lend you money if you're struggling to pay debt you already owe??????

Where is PlantedBHA? Haven't heard in a while.

Director buys?
You ask, you get.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HUR/directorpdmr-shareholding-oif1t2xtlytk7ed.html

UK's track and trace is actually hilarious. it's what happens when you put loads of money in front of 24k people (majority of who are leeches) :')

Anything as long as it pays the bills right?

TLW's debt is more manageable than HUR's debt.

TLW's negative net assets is on paper for accounting principles. Funny isn't it how TLW's making more money (cashflow) than HUR even with negative net assets :')

HUR's assets are due a downgrade. In their interim report, HUR's assets are given a "future" value based on what their predictions are following implementation of water injection programme (which hasn't even been confirmed yet).

"The impairment charge was calculated based on expected future cashflows from the Lancaster EPS, using a number of forecast production profiles (both with and without the cost and benefits of a water injection programme) and probability weighted according to our best estimates of the most likely outcomes."

I don't know about you, but an asset with 3-4m reserves is not worth $513m.

"HUR V TLW - Updated "Fair Value" As By "Simply Wall Street""

Imagine comparing a company that has world class production assets and world class exploration assets to a company that has a downgraded asset with one prolific (but declining) well.

"Tuxedo8
Posted in: HUR
Posts: 481
Price: 6.735
No Opinion
RE: I’m in today29 May 2020 08:37
Also in, HUR is now extremely undervalued, and the enormous potential SP upsides here can no longer be ignored, IMO."

Yes, where's the "enormous potential SP upside" from 6.7p?

On what basis did you come to the conclusion that this "may prove to be a good buying opportunity"?

"All FTSE is down big time today and drop is certainly not oil related"

Did you ever wonder if the drop was HUR related...? Probably not in that fantasy world..

Scrodingerscat,

Yes, the recent draws are due to the impact of Delta and agree that they can't really be used as an accurate measure.
Plus, the draws are API data. I tend to rely on EIA being more accurate.
The refinery utilisation rates from EIA tomorrow will give more of an indication of activity during Delta.
Let's hope it provides a bit more clarity with the distillates draw.

Also, this article (and IEA) also has the view that refinery utilisations will increase (for the global refining throughput): https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-oil-refining-iea/iea-says-refining-throughput-set-for-quarterly-rise-idUKKBN26Z1L3

Although anything can happen between now and end of year with COVID and demand. Interesting times! :)

ALL IMO. GLA.