Member Info for Slift

Onlyprofit,
Possibly. I tend to value companies on cashflow and assets.

Cashflow
- Depends on production performance (Will Tullow manage good/increased production in 6-12 months time?)
- Depends on oil price (Tullow will start to see some cashflow in 2021 when oil price is above $51 - for good cashflows, Tullow requires $60+/barrel IMO)

Assets (Including Liability management)
- Depends on oil price again (A higher long term and short term oil prices will increase value of assets)
- Exploration (Suriname exploration in Q1 is important. A failure here might dent confidence in both Tullow's exploration as well as their Suriname assets)
- Development (Kenya/Ghana development will add value to assets)
- Debt (Requires refinance/restructure so that it is more manageable with cashflows and CAPEX. Otherwise as it stands, Tullow needs $200m+ POSITIVE cashflow for 2021 just to survive the year)

The biggest hurdle (before we start to see good share price) here is debt. Not the size of the debt, but rather the covenants and the repayments included.
These covenants and repayments were put in place by the lending facility when oil price was $60+/barrel with the view that oil price will rise to $65-70/barrel.
It's been a struggle for Tullow for the past 12 months due to the bad performance in 2019 (production as well as the massive asset write offs in 2019/2020) combined with COVID and saudi oil war crashing oil prices to all time lows..

Most of it is past us now. The CMD and January 2021 re-determination will inform us of how Tullow will manage debt going forwards, whether this is refinance/restructure or cash raise.
When debt is more manageable, expect to see the share price perform accordingly.

ALL IMO.
Slift

Great to know Laidback!

US Crude stockpiles have continued to decline in the past month, despite EIA/API saying they've increased.
EIA/API do not take into account the draws from strategic reserves as it is rarely drawn from strategic reserves.

Since the peak in July, 14m barrels were drawn from strategic reserves and never replaced and not accounted for in EIA/API stockpiles.
Since last month, 3.5m barrels were drawn from strategic reserves and never replaced and not accounted for in EIA/API stockpiles.

On top of crude draws, US really has to start building stocks in some petroleum products (including gasoline).

With the Norway strike and hurricane in the gulf of Mexico, there will be a short of supply in the next week or so. Expecting a decline in crude stocks next week which should drive crude oils higher.
Furthermore, the US will at some point in the near future replace the crude drawn from strategic reserves, which will also draw from general stockpiles of crude.

A Brent price of c. $47-48/barrel for CMD and January re-determination will put this company in a good place.

GLA.
Slift

Is Brent flying mate?

Awesome valuation.
I have used your valuation to buy a small holding here at current prices :)

Genghis15,

Careful mate, you might be accused of being a de-ramper and shorter soon for stating facts.

I do see value here nenny.
I also see value in Loch Tay project.

But I don't want to deal with the divestment into private company of eris gold.
I don't even know how to deal with private companies.

I will likely be back once the company has approved the reverse takeover.

Sold out of here today.
I will certainly be looking back here following the approval of the new company and rights issue.
This lithium project is exciting.

Good luck to all that are still in.

Slift

How would I go about selling there?
Never been involved in private companies before.

So Erris Gold Resources is to stay as a private company now?
No plans to relist?

Tuxedo8,

I have never met or known anyone as delusional as you..

I hope it works out for you being the sheep following CA into investment..
But here's the facts:
"enhance long-term shareholder value" - I.e. They are looking to create value for their OWN shareholders. Afterall, they are an asset management company.
"active engagement with companies" - i.e. They are looking to trade to ensure that their portfolio is robust.

Good luck to you.

CaptainSwag,
I don't think anyone knew.. and like you say there could still be twists and turns.

Good luck to you if you're invested here.

"I really don't want some news like PMO yesterday as its shareholders got well and truly rogered."
I don't know.. considering the position they are in, I think PMO got a nice deal here. We'll have to see how the combined group performs.
But i'd imagine the combined group to perform well with the recovery of oil. PMO shareholders will get some of their investment back. It's better than none.

Just IMO.

Some news regarding Uganda:
https://observer.ug/businessnews/66883-why-you-need-local-content-in-uganda-s-oil-industry

Planted mate, how's your truck?
You haven't said anything about your truck. Is it broken?

"Sold stories of Qualified individuals and Dr's confirming Billions of barrels of oil"

Lol...
I suggest you read page 24 onwards on this document regarding the corporate bond, EPS and the company: https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/download_file/force/361/309

Risks that PI's knew when they invested (or should have known - your fault for seeing through the risks):
1. The Group may not be able to develop commercially its Reserves and its Contingent andProspective Resources
2. The Group’s business plan requires substantial capital expenditure and the future expansionand development of the Group’s business may require additional capital. As such, the Groupmay not be able to generate sufficient cash flows or finance its activities in the longer term if itis unable to raise additional capital.
3. The Group’s operation and success depends on its ability to explore, appraise, develop andcommercially produce oil and gas Reserves and Resources, in particular fractured basementreservoirs, that are economically recoverable.
4. The assets are located in areas subject to variable weather conditions which may restrict theperiods in which the Group can implement its offshore activities and well programmes
5. Treatment of produced water and associated gas could result in significant financial andtechnical costs
6. Estimation of Reserves, Resources and production profiles is not exact
7. The Company’s securities may not be suitable as an investment
8. The Company’s share price fluctuates

I've stated 8. There are 45 risks in total listed in that document with an explanation for each one.

I know that a lot of people have lost a lot of money here (myself included) but If you aren't going to take responsibility for your own investments, you shouldn't be investing.

Just IMO.

This is probably the most hilarious thing yet about this deal:
"The directors have irrevocably undertaken that they will vote in favour of the relevant resolutions required to implement the Transaction at the shareholder meeting in respect of the their own beneficial holdings of Premier shares, representing approximately 0.12 per cent of the existing share capital of Premier as at 5 October 2020, being the last practicable date prior to publication of this announcement."

All 0.12%...

Seriously don't know what you all see in this company to ramp it this much.
All I see is uncertainty, CAPEX intensive, BOD that destroyed value and a bunch of punters.

JUST IMO.

Crystal Amber has to offload 11.55% yet..

Thanks all for responses.

Seems like there is a majority YES as opposed to NO.
Thought they'd be a lot more NO's after the recent rant about this deal.

GLA.

Crude Oil: +0.501m
Gasoline Inventories: -1.435m
Distillates: -0.962m

Refinery utilisation: +1.3%

Good to see draw in petroleum products with a small build in crude.
Expecting to see a draw in crude oil next week. US has to start building processed petroleum stocks to ensure reserves are kept topped up.
The recent oil cuts (Equinor strikes etc.) should also help with supply.

GLA.

Vote: N/A
Reason: Not a shareholder.