Member Info for Slift

Yuri.F,

You're not wrong that this is a risky investment, Tullow's future needs more certainty.
But not because of negative equity, but rather the debt maturity and the covenants surrounding the lending facility.

I guess we will find out in January 2021 exactly where Tullow's future is.

Good luck to you if you do invest here (and your other investments).

@Yuri.F,
You're coming to this board and telling every shareholder that they're all going to get wiped out based on negative equity alone.
I think everyone here is aware that Tullow has negative equity. But your post how this "translates" to "shareholder wipeout" is false and misleading.
I was simply giving an example of why it is false by using some companies you're familiar with.

"history over last 4 years"
I'm not stopping you from trading based on past data and performance. But again, wrong to assume that Tullow will continue to make a loss. Afterall, majority of these losses are accounting losses to balance the books.

@HeresHopin,
Again, I was giving example(s) to show that negative equity (and in the examples I had used - positive equity) has little impact to shareprice performance.

Operating breakeven.
Not company breakeven.

Company breakeven would have to include all operating costs, G&A costs, aquisition costs etc.
They are cashflow negative this year, but they have suited themselves up to provide a positive cashflow next year.

I don't think this share will take off until cashflow positive (i.e. generating MORE than enough cash to fund all costs, including wages, acquisitions, CAPEX, OPEX, and any other costs).
To make that happen, they need more sales.

At a guess...
Your current "Erris Resources" shares will change name to "Zinnwald Lithium" when suspension is lifted.

You will be issued shares in "Erris Gold Resources" which will stay suspended until it is back in the public markets. I'm not sure if this will appear in your portfolio. And i'm not sure if you can even do anything with these shares until back in the public markets.

What kind of medicine did you take? Lol

From Erris:
"Your share in Erris Resources will become a share in Zinnwald Lithium and you also receive a share in Erris Gold Resources which will be spun out as a private company but as the Loch Tay project develops, the intention is to return Erris Gold Resources to public markets asap."

John4242,

I did not claim such authority.
You were clearly wrong with your opinion about this company as we have seen with todays update.

Now learn to spell my username correct or don't expect a reply.

Happy about this.

A dilution, but high potential asset. Market cap going to run wild probably.

John4242,
Why do you keep referring to me here? I was simply providing my opinion based on research. You seem triggered for some reason.

Regarding Hurricane - Yes, I took a loss although not quite a disaster. But I knew the risks when I invested there. You win some and lose some.

Spurs312,
"It’s based on the fact that this asset sale has taken such a long time to materialise ... this deal has clearly met some problems. As soon as this is acknowledged that will be the catalyst for the single figures dropped."

I don't think you understand the position Tullow is in for this deal. The deal will happen, even if the deadline has to be extended.
It's in Uganda's BEST interest to approve this deal, otherwise they risk a multi-billion pound deal between IOC's and the government of Uganda and Tanzania.

Tullow is in a position to break this multi-billion dollar deal by cancelling the sale of it's stake in Uganda.
Tullow had clarified that the deal was expected to complete in Q4. Q4 hasn't even started yet.
Hope you're shorting this for your 8 or 9p.

Every ramper sold out on yesterday's rise I bet..?

Closing price on first day of trading on AIM market: 37.13p
Shares in Issue: 631m
Market Cap: c. £234m

Closing price following placing: 32.5p
Shares in Issue: 1959m
Market Cap: c. 637m

Closing price following downgrade, operational issues, board changes, and $230 debt (today): 3.01p
Shares in Issue: 1992m
Market Cap: c. £60m

:)

This made me chuckle a little :D

Rather than reading what it says on outdated websites like simply wall street, why not figure out how that's calculated and do the calculation yourself?

The "fair value" calculation on simply wall street is based on discounted cash flow valuation model involving equity, debt and future cash flows.

Whilst this board has some knowledgeable people.. it also has those who go off by valuations on outdated sites, broker forecasts, "buys/sells", etc.

I hope HUR does get to 11p for you all.

GLA.
Slift

Easy to ramp.. until the next operational update.

slarti_bartfast,

Yes, the risks are not increasing. I'd say that the risks have been well managed by Tullow so far this year. Costs have been cut, and the business has been streamlined, etc. So Tullow is in a better position than last year/earlier in the year.

My comment regarding "riskier" is to do with the RBL re-determinations and the Uganda sale. Each day that passes adds a level of risk and/or uncertainty to it not completing before the RBL re-determination I suppose.

Regarding Kenya, from my understanding (as in just my thoughts/opinions): They will be reviewing the FEED and re-designing to incorporate the entirety of resources available to the fields.
Currently, Kenya is split into several stages. The FID that was planned for this year (to be updated) was for a foundation phase utilising 210 mmboe resources with incremental development to the field to increase resources in later years up to the total 2C resources available (560 mmboe resources).
As I understand it following the Interim Results, Tullow will be skipping the foundation phase and going for a full 560mmboe+ resource from the start.

Luckily, contracts for tenders weren't awarded yet for the project, so costs will be minimised.

Best way to look at it would be like.. thinking of Snickers' bars at Sainsburys :')
A 48g single bar of Snickers costs 65p = 1.35p/g
Whereas an 83.4g Snickers Duo bar costs 85p = 1.02p/g

Apply similar concept to Kenya and you reduce the cost per barrel significantly at slightly increased CAPEX/Development costs.

As with all projects, costs of the project can be minimised in the feasibility and design stages. Go past the design stage and you will find that costs rack up significantly due to changes in contracts, materials, planning etc.

Capital Markets Day should be interesting!

ALL IMO.
Slift

onlyprofit,

I'm pretty confident in the short term, but obviously getting riskier by the day.
IMO, Tullow should be fine until at least the RBL re-determination in March 2021. But the most critical point would be the January RBL re-determination.

I ask myself "why would Tullow VOLUNTARILY REQUEST an RBL Re-determination in January?"
- Are they fools?
- Are they confident?
- or is this strategic?

I don't know. But they have certainly reduced their time by voluntarily scheduling an RBL in January 2021.

One thing is for sure, if Tullow manages to raise funds or refinance/restructure debt in January, then they will obviously survive.

In the meantime, oil price will be volatile and may even be beneficial for Tullow. The price of oil has been hovering around DMA200 for some time now. Also as a negative, COVID19 cases and restrictions have been rising. So should be interesting in the few months to come.

Good luck to all invested.
Slift

30 September: RBL Re-determination (expected to complete early October, i.e. first week)
23 October: Deadline for Uganda Transaction/Agreement
2nd Week of November (TBC): Q3 Trading Update
December (TBC): Capital Markets Day
January 2021: Update on refinance/restructure talks
2nd Week of January 2021 (TBC): Q4 Trading Update
31st January 2021: RBL Re-determination
February 2021: Suriname Well result
Feb-March 2021: Final Results/Accounts
30th March 2021: RBL Re-determination

GLA.
Slift.

Like i said, go do some research.
I'm not going to do it for you buddy.

"Well done with hurricane energy and tullow"
Thanks! I'm not invested in Hurricane, but Tullow is a great investment :)

"Your research has produced a grand total of 3 posts on hmi."
Funny, 3 posts and already ahead of you.

Have a good weekend.

"but I’d far rather see exploration news"

We should be getting some news regarding the trial early part of next week I think. Patience.

Positive news that it's been approved by the High Court I guess.
Not that it'll make much difference, I don't believe Erris will be buying back shares anytime in the near future. Also don't think that they need to, with only 39m shares in issue...

But good to have the option to buy back i suppose.