H&P note and Water Injection15 Sep 2020 16:07
H&P note indicates that water injection could increase reserves by 30% of the resources. I.e. 17.4m barrels.
The total available 2P reserves would therefore be 26.8m barrels.
This would mean that following water injection, average bopd from July 2020 to the end of EPS would be 16.3k bopd.
There COULD be significant increase in production following water injection, which may allow production from BOTH 7z and 6 well.
But this is uncertainty.
From the Technical Review, the conclusion is that the OWC has RISEN by c. 10-15m from initial OWC before production started.
From the declared OWC, this means that the OWC is currently at 1315-1320 m.
Why has the OWC risen?
Well, since it's a fractured basement, you're creating a low pressure reservoir because of productivity index. I.e. the reservoir will lose pressure based on the amount of barrels you produce.
Thus, the aquifer will move up into the oil reservoir to equalise the pressure between the oil reservoir and the aquifer.
This is basic concept of drive/movement through pressure differential.
So will water injection work?
Potentially.
What the water injection would do is increase the pressure within the oil reservoir, and thus pushing the reservoir (hopefully water) into the aquifer through the same pressure differential concept, again to equalise the pressure --> this time it'll be the high pressure (artificially made through water injection) within the reservoir to the low pressure aquifer.
The uncertainty:
FB is a complex system.
Ideally, you'd want the water injector to be below the initial OWC but within the oil reservoir so that the increase in pressure is seen by 6 and 7z well. The water injector should also be in a location where it will not interfere with 7z or 6 well.
As Beverley mentioned, the model is a complex system comprising of many sources of "energy" that is able to provide the pressure differential and thus drive the fluids.
Beverley also mentioned that the model includes aquifer influx from the below and laterally. So there is a possibility of the increase in pressure within the reservoir driving oil (as well as water) away from the reservoir laterally. This would mean that less oil would be recovered than initially anticipated with the water injector.
If HUR get this right, then expect in excess of 20k bopd production.
ALL IMO. GLA.
Slift.
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