Member Info for Slift

I've been following this company for a while.

I have not made an investment due to the issues of COVID affecting this company and also cashflow for the company through sales. From my research, it seems like Harvest have had some sales in Q3 so far. How significant i'm not sure.
Also very positive that the expansion planning has come under budget and is on time.

I would make an investment, but i'm not too sure how the business has been doing since June due to the lack of RNS. Afterall, Harvest would have issued an RNS to indicate anything that may have material impact to the company's worth (including sales agreements). Which so far we have not had many since the last Trading Update.

Also noted from reading this board that some were expecting an RNS to indicate the resignation of Dr Mark Heyhoe.
I don't think Harvest was required to issue an RNS for this resignation. Whilst Mark Heyhoe was the COO of the company, he was not a member of the board of directors.

But my question is regarding Brian McMaster and his future plans for this company, or peoples' thoughts on his future plans for the company.
Being the chairman, it seems like he has also taken on board operations (followng resignation of Mark Heyhoe, the former COO) as well as financial duties (following redundancy of David Edghill, the former CFO). Although there are general managers and other members in the company that have the experience to provide the support required for these roles.

However, I don't believe that the company can really grow with just one man overseeing the entire company. With the lack of directors, this company is primed for a takeover.
What are peoples' thoughts/opinions on this? Will Brian McMaster expand the team and bring on board new directors to take on the tasks as the company grows? Or will this company just be taken over?

ALL IMO.
Slift.

There's this new phenomena in the trading world called "The HUR effect".

Happening here right now!

Wouldn't be surprised if this is the "HUR effect" again.

"RBC CUTS HURRICANE ENERGY TO 'UNDERPERFORM' ('OUTPERFORM') - TARGET 1 (25) PENCE"
Broker rating cut to "underperform" from "outperform"
Broker price target cut to 1p from 25p.

Why? Fundamentals following the downgrade. This may change with future updates.
1p target gives Hurricane a market cap of c. £20m.

mattwales,

Tullow had plans to farmdown Kenya, even prior to the $1b portfolio management. Any connection between lenders and Kenya farmdown is speculation.

I don't believe Tullow will exit Kenya altogether, and Tullow will have the option to farmdown following FDP/during FDP...
But if they are able to make it Kenya more attractive by lowering costs, they may want to keep Kenya themselves for future revenues/production. Also, if they make Kenya really attractive to develop, securing funds from investors for it shouldn't be a problem either.

And ofcourse, we don't know exact plans until Capital Markets Day.

Just IMO.

Also worth reading Africa Oil's RNS on Kenya's extension:
https://www.africaoilcorp.com/news/africa-oil-receives-kenya-license-extension-122789/

I wonder if Tullow will even sell Kenya now?
Kenya might be an asset worth keeping following the updated FDP.

ngms27,

So all of a sudden, your "December average 9.5k bopd" has turned into "10682 bopd at 31st December 2020"?

Lol, at least admit you've been wrong rather than side tracking.

ngms27,

If you stand that you are correct with your figures, can you at least explain how your following statement is true for September?:
"30 days @ 15k bopd" when a week-long shutdown is 7 days and production as highlighted by Hurricane is at c. 15k bopd.

Strongly advise everyone to check through any posts made here in their own time.

Slift.

ngms27,

Even if you considered AM uptime of 95% in your figures (although you haven't stated), the consideration of the september week long shutdown puts your "example" at 11.5k bopd. BELOW Hurricane's guidance.

"Maths not your strong point?"
I think you should be asking yourself this.

Slift.

ngms,

Your example does not consider two key elements:
- September week long shutdown.
- AM uptime

Which puts your example at 10.9k bopd at 95% efficiency.

Now try calculating again.

ngms27,

I think Hurricane should be fine until at least H2 21. The actions Hurricane have taken so far COULD be good to keep them going until H2 2021:
- Shutting down well 7z
- Increasing well 6 to 18.3k total barrels/day

The above has multiple effects.
- Decreases rate of decline in BHP (18.3k barrels produced vs c. 25k with 7z and 6)
- Pressure drop in well decreased with the operation of one well and lower total barrels produced (hence slower rise in OWC)
- Well 7z ESPs not in operation (Operation/Electrical costs saved)
- Lower costs associated with AM due to less fluids treated
- etc.

I think you're very pessimistic if you think Hurricane will be at 9.5k bopd by December. But we're all entitled to opinions! I think I share your view on the LONG TERM future of this company though.

P.S. Not invested here.
Slift.

With the current COVID situation, I think people are forgetting that Tullow's breakeven is $38-40/barrel.

With Brent being constantly above breakeven, this company is looking to produce a positive cashflow by year end. There is also room for mistakes here for Tullow due to Brent being above their forward curve too.

Obviously the Uganda sale is very important and all eyes on Capital Markets Day (TBC) and lender talks.
But Tullow has time in the short term to make these happen.

Immediate important actions in the near term is confirmation of September RBL.
We should get this end of next week/early the week after.

ALL IMO. GLA.
Slift.

CaptainSwag,
Yes today is awful for all shares!

I don't think HUR has any immediate threats with oil keeping above $40.
But I also don't see HUR having any immediate positives.. I mean no work to be started until end of Q1 21... at the earliest.

- SP drops on RNS
- Lures "punters" to invest, LTH sells out
- SP drops further
- Slight uptick on "all bad news out"
- Repeat

"Agree, the likes of tullow and pmo have about 5 billion between them! 100m here. And the resources have not gone away..."
Lol, why are you comparing Hurricane to the likes of PMO and Tullow?

You should be comparing this company to Pharos Energy.

Dr T owns 1.35% of the company.

What difference is it going to make if he sells or not..?

CaptainSwag,
Yup! Even my employer is cutting jobs despite making a profit!
Most people still on furlough is still at risk.

"dealing with debt which is a headache in different ways for both"
Lol wtf? Which company isn't dealing with debt??

"tullow rns they were also dealing with some production issues offshore."
Wrong. Tullow had problems with drilling.

"They also have gas flaring issues ( see Lincoln )"
Wrong. Tullow do not have a flaring issue. They can flare more gas than they currently produce atm because Tullow is now exporting some gas to Ghana.

Yeah, you should really do some research.

Slift.

Hi gregpeck7,
Can you provide 5 common things Hurricane has with Tullow? Other than that they both are E&P that produce oil.

Lol..
Job losses at Hurricane?! You mean job losses everywhere!

A lot of companies will be cutting people before this months end and almost all companies will be cutting people before end of furlough.

Best opportunity companies have had in years to "sack" people! Just blame it on covid to get rid of the staff you don't want to keep!
Easy peasy.

Hope the intelligent people here manages to keep their job.
GLA.