Member Info for Slift

Genghis15,

The AM's flaring consent is 2400 boe/d gas. Which would equate to 30-35kish oil production depending on GOR.
So there's plenty more room for more gas to be flared as it stands.

But it is indeed a problem IMO going forwards - better uses for this gas than being flared.

All IMO.
Slift.

Steve,
Your posts are not dyslexic friendly.

down but not out i think.

"Does anyone, apart from the BOD and the investors, know the the price of the raise...........?"

Doubt anyone will know until after creditor approval.
My PURE GUESS would be the price will be revealed along with the shareholder approval request. This price will be a discount to the share price of what PMO would have been trading at when the approval from creditors is finalised.

I think PMO revealed the RBL lending re-structure a little too early, without the full creditor approval.
£245m raise via shareholders is a big ask..
with a total of £400m dilution in shares.. although wouldn't be tradeable for a year, but still dilution imo.

I think PMO's long term shareholders deserve SOME return here - either with a dividend or a share buyback in the future.
On the plus side, debt is no longer a worry for a few years to come and PMO may be able to take advantage of higher oil prices in the future along with the increase in oil production.

Just IMO. GLA.
Slift.

"But I can guess...
Yes and its not that difficult."

He's obviously on his yacht with a red wine. :')

lol this thread is jokes.

Adoubleuk and others,

Just thought this document, particularly Section 3.2 "Professional Qualifications of a QRE", might be useful if you are going to be looking at the credentials of the technical committee:
https://www.spe.org/industry/docs/Reserves_Audit_Standards_June%202019_Final.pdf

Slift.

I'm against a rights issue at this stage. I don't believe Tullow needs to raise cash just yet.
The market cap as of Friday's close is $288m. So over 100% dilution if raising $300m.

Yes, the balance sheet is a problem. Or is it?
There are several ways to improve balance sheet that would prove more effective than a rights issue. Which is why the forward strategy for Tullow is very important.

Debt wise, Tullow should be good for the next 6-12 months if Uganda is completed.

Just IMO.
Slift.

Petra should release any offers they have had for assets soon.

GEM however, are not interested in Petra's assets: https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/43518-gem-not-interested-in-buying-lovely-petra-diamonds-assets-after-kicking-tyres/

Resistance due to gap between 5.3p and 6p.
Shouldn't take too much to break, either with an RNS, or a bit more of this fluctuation around 5.3p.

GLA.
Slift.

Probably that his trucks' thermostat is leaking.

Yes, I do apologise for omitting your "get out of jail" cards when I was making a point.

But ofcourse it's quotes from your postings as I was replying to your statement.

I was simply making a point. Why is everyone so defensive?
No "de-ramping agenda" here, I consider myself neutral, whether I'm invested or not. In HUR's case, I am invested.

cl2201,

Me, you and majority of the board have probably done their own research into this company. I certainly wouldn't listen to random strangers and if someone posts something here, i'd verify it myself in my own time - which i'm sure you would too. At the end of the day, there is always risks to investing.

But IMO, people like "ironroughneck" is a victim. I mean, I couldn't care less tbh, it was his decision to invest and sell etc.
But he probably didn't do any research, or even knows how to. He likely invested based on what was written here, and was therefore manipulated by this board.
And again, I don't care tbh, but it's also bloody annoying, as no contribution whatsoever.
Just a point i'm making.

Read his posts.
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/ironroughneck/

DiveCentre,
"Anyone with an iota of common sense will ingore them as their agenda is just so obvious."
Yes, anyone that's been on this BB. And ofcourse, anything said on these boards won't influence the share price in any significance.
But how about someone new to this board? They may be mislead and manipulated to invest based on the majority of the posts here.

For example: https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/ironroughneck/

NeverSayNever1,

I'm not de-ramping at all. I'm neither ramping or de-ramping. But how come you dodged my question yesterday?

"based on facts and fundamentals available today"
I'm interested in these facts and fundamentals, could you please provide them?

"oldest technique and it’s still called market manipulation!"
I personally reckon the oldest technique for manipulation is blatant ramping and providing misleading information.

Such as:
"HUR SP is currently priced for “Armageddon” which means that while upside potential now is truly massive"

"HUR SP will cross 6p by 10th September and 9p by month end thereby, subsequently leading us well into double digits in Q4"

"we should now see the HUR SP push well into double digits in coming weeks, IMHO, technicals are indicating that we will push past 8+ in coming days thereby"

etc etc etc.

PlantedBHA,

You disappoint me.
Thought you would have taken your stupid truck "loaded with hurricane shares" (but mostly your weight) to Aberdeen petrol station by now to question Mr T Maris about production.

At least you're displaying realistic optimism with 17k bopd production (not sure about the "more").
But we all still know every one of your "guesstimate" is "B@ll@cks".

TimmyG,

My thoughts and opinions on the upcoming update and future of Tullow:

- Yes, Tullow will make a loss due to the impairments and write offs (mainly to do with low oil prices and therefore asset value write offs). Net asset values should therefore be negative. But this will be a paper loss that is recoverable when oil price recovers.
- Due to extensive CAPEX in H1, Tullow will make a negative cashflow for H1. But CAPEX in H2 will be minimal so this negative will turn to positive by year end (assuming oil price is above $38/barrel).
- Uganda sale is important - This gives Tullow headroom and financial security. Will be favourable for Tullow if this sale completes before 30th September for RBL liquidity forecast test.
- Debt - not worried about at this stage if Uganda sale completes.

- Ntomme-9 well - Tullow will update us with this well, remember 47.18% of flow is net to Tullow. Will de-risk lower end of production guidance if online with promising flows.
- Business strategy going forwards is important. Tullow ALREADY has the infrastructure to increase production if difficulties with the TEN field is solved. As above, 47.18% net to Tullow on all new wells to increase production. So lots of POTENTIAL for Tullow to improve production with the development of these fields.

- Tullow's oil price breakeven of c. $48-51/barrel next year. Tullow really needs around $60+/barrel in 2021 to really bring in cashflow and provide confidence to the market. $65+/barrel will allow Tullow to catch up on CAPEX - which has recently been minimised due to oil price.

Finally, no idea how the market will react to the above. Sure it'll make a loss due to impairments and difficulties with oil price.. But huge potential for growth in the future depending on business strategy and oil price.

I believe that companies are valued on cashflows and "growth". On a basic level, potentials include:
- Recovery of losses on assets when forward curve and oil price rises (growth)
- Exploration successes (growth)
- Production improvements (cashflows and growth if reserves added)

ALL IMO.
Slift

"Food for BoD thought"
From Lancaster's point of view - what are you going to do about purifying the oil from water?

Are you going to go drink the water as it comes out the well???

"On a day we have over 9 million barrels of oil State side drawn.."
This could be due to the refinery utilisation rates being at -5.3% for the past week.
So the crude that's being produced will likely add to stockpiles sometime in the next couple weeks.
On a wider scale, these draws are only in the US. I think the stockpiles around the world still has some ways to go..

Tony,
"seeing the sector trashed it has left me dishearten as I thought the share had bottomed."
I'm still looking to see how this plays out and still very optimistic about the future of the oil sector. Unlike most other sectors, continuous CAPEX investment is required to maintain crude production. Right now, there is a lack of this.

The energy sector is worst hit during this pandemic, and more to come. There will be a lot of bankruptcies in this sector, and it's possible this scare is why the share price has been constantly moving down.
Unless the Uganda sale doesn't materialise this year, i'm still confident for the recovery of Tullow given the debt, financials, production and potential for growth.

It really is a shame with the recent price trend, but investors may see more value in this sector as it becomes more and more undervalued.

Some key pointers for H1 results (of which I don't know how much of an impact this will have on SP as interim results hit, but some priced in):
- Write off of c. $1.4-1.7b
- Stake in TEN at 47.18%. Ntomme-9 well production would add this amount to Tullow's net production. (i.e. if 8k bopd flow, +4k to production).
- Negative cashflow for H1
- Negative net assets

@Megla,
"why do you want shale companies to go bankrupt? All that happens is the debt gets reset"
Not all companies recover from bankruptcies. The more bankruptcies there are, the less likely banks will fund for shale production in the future (or i'm hoping..).
The problem with shale - it rarely makes a profit and in a crisis, most likely everyone including lenders will lose money.

Following bankruptcies, production will decrease in the US - until the assets are bought out by other companies. But who'd want to operate assets that require $60+ oil price to breakeven with consistent CAPEX investment to continue production? No-one in todays market.

Slift.