Member Info for skittish

"Though they do say that the majority of cases are from people with pre existing conditions"

But that obviously doesn't apply to the infected doctors and nurses who are dying - most in their 30's and 40's.

The scale of the lock down in China - half the population under some form of control - and several hundred million under indefinite complete lock down - suggests that this is something fairly serious.

Also reports of a patient who remained infectious 24 days after initial diagnosis, after they themselves were cured and tested negative for the virus.

So possibility that cured and negative test patients can still spread the disease.

Begins to explain the Chinese Communist Party reaction to the disease.

Just the flu.

But the CPC feels the need to place 760 million people, more than half the population, on lock down.

https://twitter.com/paulmozur/status/1228751784111271936

Not - just the flu.

https://www.genesig.com/products/10039-coronavirus-covid-19-ce-ivd

http://www.primerdesign.co.uk/home

The common link between MESH and ASLR is Chris Ackers who holds (held) 3% of MESH and holds 7.5% of ASLR.

But ASLR also has Nigel Wray on board holding around 12%, so hopefully that may clinch it for is to get Sentiance listed on the LSE, which is obviously where it wants to go.

MESH obviously couldn't raise enough cash and maybe going onto JP Jenkins was the last straw.

Fingers crossed!

It looks like MESH had (has) a deal with Sentiance, and holds 16.8% possibly with an option to go to something like 80%, but that may have expired.

It looks like CEO Mark De Smedt left on 20th January 2020 and whilst this appear on the company's website and at Companies House I can't find it on the bb's so appears to have been missed by many investors.

Mark De Smedt was also on the board of Sentiance and the companys announcement states -

" It is the intention that in due course Mike Power, on behalf of MESH, formally takes up the Board seat at Sentiance reserved for a MESH Director"

So it looks like the transition wasn't seamless.

Presumably this is when it all went pear shaped and Asimilar have now stepped in.

MESH does however appear to own 16,333 Sentiance shares which at the last subscription price of 750Euro were worth £12.2M.

That may give them some leverage, but it does look like Asimilar may have supplanted them in terms of getting them listed on the LSE.

Hopefully more details "soon".

Looks like The Standard was about to break the story and forced them to suspend prior to their being ready to issue an RNS.

Waiting game now.

Looks interesting - given the right terms should be good for a rise -

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/aim-listed-asimilar-backed-by-nigel-wray-to-buy-stake-in-belgian-ai-tech-firm-a4362071.html

And 150k appears to have been bought immediately before they went "off grid", mmm....

Someone always knows something.

Hopefully not too long.

It is either going to be very good or....

Mainly buys from 11am onwards, so we live in hope.

Interesting....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-14/chinese-refiners-go-on-buying-spree-as-oil-too-cheap-to-ignore

pablo - my take is this.

They had to give it to somebody!

We don't know who bid for it in the first place.

But if, say, apart from Sundagas it was one or two of the Majors, and maybe a Chinese outfit then TL could have taken the view that the Majors could be problematic especially if they wanted to ship gas to a place other than TL (the problem with Sunrise; and Chuditch is further away from TL than Sunrise) and been wary of the Chinese as they didn't want to be totally in hoc to them as they may end up financing Sunrise in any event and didn't want all their eggs in one basket.

So as the bidding had gone on for around 3 years already and the terms were set long ago - then granting it to Sundagas could be seen as kicking the can down the road a bit.

TL are not committed to either side, Sundagas have 7 years to drill a couple of wells and do seismic etc. Development decisions can be taken towards the end of that period.

In the meantime they can press ahead with Sunrise.

By buying some of the share off Baron/Sundagas then Baron/Sundagas get money for development, and TL have a bigger say (for little initial expenditure) in how the field is ultimately developed and most importantly where the gas goes to - Australia or TL.

It isn't all rosy as TL appear to be facing a cash crunch in the middle of the decade, immediately prior to Sunrise coming on stream, and piping the gas to TL is likely to take longer and be more expensive than piping to Australia, thus exacerbating that problem.

I may of course be way out - but little Sundagas I'd say, was a surprising choice, albeit with a very clever chap at the helm.

Recent image of Bretana on 5th February 2020.

https://ibb.co/JsG18zv

The squarish clearings to the immediate SE of the facility and to the NE on the other side of the river are recent, having been created within the last 5 weeks.

Does PTAL intend using the same platform for all wells, or is this a prelude to more drilling activity elsewhere?

Yes, quite likely it will be taken by the Timor Leste government, or someone else.

They have around $17Billion presently sitting in their Sovereign Wealth Fund, but everything isn't completely rosy there.

These two articles explain the current position as to why they bought the stakes in Sunrise from the Majors.

https://southeastasiaglobe.com/how-timor-leste-can-make-the-most-of-its-oil/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-eyes-stake-southeast-asia-170000142.html

It is essentially a dispute as to where the gas/oil is to end up for processing - TL wants TL, of course to provide jobs and industry, the Majors wanted either a floating platform, or Australia due to the difficult geology between Sunrise and TL.

TL also may run out of money prior to Sunrise being developed.

The Chinese appear to be muscling in also for geopolitical reasons, and the Austrialians (and US) are keen to keep them out.

Chuditch is of course a long term project , and I've wondered as to the reasons why minnow Sundagas were awarded the licence.

If the pipeline between Sunrise and TL is built then it makes it easier for gas to go from Chuditch to TL. Maybe Sundagas just made the appropriate noises, and it suited TL to give it to a minnow, knowing majors were not keen on a pipeline to TL. The decision as to where Chuditch gas makes landfall also doesn't have to be taken for a number of years, so TL also keeps their options open regarding China, if they award to Sundagas.

So everyone is seeking to gain advantages here, knowing that all the major parties have significant disadvantages one way or the other.

Baron need cash of course, so do Sundagas as they are committed to drill a well in Indonesia on the Telen PSC commencing by October 2020.

TL have a cash squeeze coming, but want the gas/oil to come ashore in TL, which the Majors resist. Austrialia/US don't want China involved, but China have in the past been willing to throw money at states to gain influence. TL is probably somewhat wary of the Chinese but can play them off against others.

I suspect that TL will buy stakes off both Baron and Sundagas, giving them the resources to go ahead with Telen, and thus gaining more influence as to where the gas ends up eventually, and maybe making Sunrise to TL more viable.

At the same time TL can play the Chinese card for a few years before major decisions have to be taken on Chuditch, whilst they develop Sunrise.

All to play for here given a bit of time.

That was quick - now up 2%!

Some see value here.

We may have to wait a little while to get to 0.5p+ again, but on the other hand we may not.

I suspect she isn't out yet and may have some way to go.

Hopefully we'll get an RNS sometime explaining the position. She waited patiently for 18 months for a spike to 0.5p, so she may be unwilling to sell at these levels.

Oilers are somewhat unloved at the moment due to coronavirus fallout overlaying environmental concerns.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/global-oil-demand-outlook-from-the-iea.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

However they could come roaring back given the right circumstances.

This article suggests that there are signs that US production has peaked and may go into a relatively rapid short term decline - which could push up oil prices very significantly from their present $54/b.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4320190-abrupt-reversal-of-shale-oils-fortunes-points-to-radical-reset-of-oil-prices

Of course, Baron is not a production story, but a buy out story, with a confirmed asset.

A sale of all or part of their interest would raise cash to either go it alone on Peru or get involved in other SundaGas projects in the Far East.

Some patience is no doubt required - this is a get rich story but not necessarily a get rich quick story.

Baron is somewhat different to many oilers, but there are some with good producing assets which are very lowly valued and in time may be due a significant rerating.

Philippines pivoting towards China - making resolution of the South China Sea dispute more likely, albeit at the cost of a longer term strategic loss to the West -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51468686

Forum Energy Limited is sitting on 2.6 Trillion+ cu ft of gas "with significant upside". Makes Forum Energy Services Limited's Saltfleetby asset look about the size of a cigarette lighter.

Tiburn - Wing Wah's Banga Kayo is to the south of Pointe Noire, it is their Kayo Nord prospect which is next to Tilapia. I'm sure they will turn to that in due course.

Interesting to see what AC is up to. One wonders whether he has a grip on reality, or not, as the case may be - either that or he is Italy's answer to Elon Musk and all ZEN shareholders will shortly be able to afford trips to the Moon (and back).

He's raised £1M-ish for Norway, looking to raise £4M-ish for Italy (all within the last few weeks), and he seems to be committing to £8M+ for Tilapia within a few months.

And his entire company is worth £7M and hasn't got any income.

Which ever way it goes it is likely to be spectacular in every sense of the word.

Something just ain't right.

DS and AC really are perfectly suited to one another.

and Slippery Customers....

The INTU analogy is interesting.

Market cap presently around £180M.

Assets many £ billions.

Ergo - the relationship between assets and market cap is nonsense.

So the reasoning goes - Baron Oil may have £ hundreds of millions in assets but a market cap of £5M (or less) is perfectly rational.

Except......INTU is crippled by £5 Billion of debt, which it probably can never repay, which entirely wipes out its NAV, and probably quite a bit more. And INTU could well go bust prior to sorting out its debt problem if the creditors call in those pesky loans.

And Baron has no debt.

This isn't comparing Apples and Oranges its comparing Apples and bags of cement.

As regards Mrs J Parvizi - she may have got through 80M shares over the last 3 days or so - always a little difficult to second guess but someone does appear to like nice round numbers.

She had 120M on 7th February 2020, so that COULD mean she has only around another 40M to go through.

Interestingly, her previous offload prior to 7th February 2020 was on 3rd August 2018, just after an update when she was able to get around 0.5p . So she has waited around 18 months to achieve roughly the same price again, at least on her initial sales.

Which suggests she isn't willing to sell out simply at any price.

We'll see if we get a holding RNS in the next few days.

But that 40M could well go in under an hour if we get another RNS, or it may take a few days, or she could hang on with a non notifiable interest.

And that last RNS could have been designed more with a view to letting her out gracefully, rather than an actual fundraising itself. Letting her out is just laying the groundwork for what is to come.

Once she is gone fundraising in an environment of a rising share price (whether by debt or shares) should not prove to be an issue.

Much news and potential to come here, masked by a 9% holder who prefers race horses to oil rigs, selling down.

Maybe - suspect she got rid of around 30M (or 1.5%) yesterday which would take her to around 4.7% - we'll see in the next few days.

She (or her advisers) are too canny to sell too cheap.

Yes, something going on in the background here - many sells easily absorbed.

News on the horizon?

The Baron story has recently been picked up in the Timorese press, accompanied by approving noises from government officials.