Member Info for skittish

Pudding - it will indeed.

I didn't actually say there would be a New Age takeover - my preferred scenario would be that we would reach an agreement with them whereby we would swap drilling and geological data and they would use our land based site to drill their offshore targets - in return for payment. But we will see.

Of more interest is that the Chinese may again be active in our locale following their circa 8 well programme which terminated around October/November 2018.

A new pad appears to have been constructed to the north west of their licence area.

I've dubbed the pad "N3" and this is how it fits in with their 2017/8 drilling campaign.

https://ibb.co/nLFbL62

It appears to have been constructed in the last two months together with a new roadway of several km - I'll have to go back through imagery to get a precise timeline.

This is a closeup -

https://ibb.co/xm8kcVL

Do I spy a possible rig there? I'll have to check on "blobs" appearing and disappearing.

Interestingly, someone appears to have commissioned high resolution imagery of this area (much higher resolution that is available to me) as this area and surroundings have been repeatedly imaged in great detail over the last couple of weeks - you can see where they are imaging but can't get the images themselves - unless you pay, which for this type of reconnaissance is quite expensive.

There also may be renewed activity at "BN".

As for Tilapia this is yesterday morning -

https://ibb.co/9h11rrr

It is certainly all go in the vicinity.

But then you also believe that 12 Berkeley Street is merely a serviced office address, and I can assure you that it isn't.

It is a real office, with real people.

Obviously, if there were to be a definite RTO going ahead by AAOG that would be announced by RNS and the shares suspended.

But the assets are not yet paid for hence the charges against ATOG Sahara and ATOG Midco in favour of Medco Energi.

Normally when assets are transferred they are paid for. Not in this case - instead they have been transferred and a charge back arranged.

A very odd arrangement.

Why do I believe that is - because the ultimate purchaser has not been yet able to secure finance, but expects to do so shortly. Once that finance is arranged, by whatever means, I believe AAOG will announce the RTO.

Otherwise there would be no reason to leave the consideration for the transaction outstanding.

I await further doodlebug6125 posts and Companies House announcements with interest.

Agreed the shares were only issued on 15 November, when DS resigned and presumably no longer had control as his single share was then diluted.

But the transaction to sell the Tunisian assets and the charge back did not take place until 19th November when Medco Sahara Limited changed its name to ATOG Sahara and JB and Jonathan Mark Taylor were appointed directors in place of the Medco Sahara directors.

We know that the transaction completed that day as the name changed to ATOG Sahara Limited, and the day previously the Medco Sahara directors had signed a Power of Attorney allowing the Medco parent company control over all the oil sold until final payment had been made.

True we don't know who has committed to the 1,000 shares, it cannot be AAOG at present as that would be a reverse take over, but JB cannot use the same solicitors as AAOG in his dealings with ATOG if there were to be a potential conflict, and clearly there could be if only over the question of the DD issue.

So AAOG cannot be committed, but maybe shortly once the finance issue has been sorted out. There must be a potential mechanism for payment, otherwise how has the deal got so far.

And why has the Medco parent company allowed the transfer to take place without actually receiving payment for the assets?

That is what I find strange.

Oh dear!

Curious seems to be struggling a bit with that one.

Lets try something a bit easier.

Starter for 10.

Say someone spies a rather nice property - a bit run down but with great potential.

Lets call him JB.

Some think of JB as being "as thick as mince", but he does have hidden talents.

JB is a bit short of cash, but he gets some pals to put up a deposit - say £777,600.00, which just happens to equate to $1M. Now JB is a bit of a charmer, but for various reasons, struggles to raise the rest of the cash - and it is a bit hefty - perhaps somewhere in the region of $30M-$40M ( a bit of guessology there!)

Now JB isn't really "as thick as mince" and says to the seller - "tell you what - transfer the deeds to me, I'll move in, and then you can take out a charge on the property for the money I owe and I'll pay you later".

The seller who knows that JB isn't "as thick as mince" and quite likes JB and his set up, says "Okay, that sounds like a good deal to me" and then hands JB the keys and the deeds. JB moves his furniture, wife and kids in (you can substitute drilling engineers, geologists etc. here if you want) and the seller is quite happy to secure his interest by way of a charge and await payment in due course.

Now curious do you think that is a realistic scenario?

Now consider that the solicitors who act for AAOG also act for a JB (another JB, of course, our JB in this case) in his dealings with ATOG and Medco, so there can be no conflict of interest, or potential future conflict of interest in between JB's dealings to do with AAOG and those to do with ATOG and Medco.

I don't pretend to know exactly how all this ends, or exactly how the balance of the money is to be raised, all I will say is that those who consider AAOG to be a worthless company, run by worthless self serving people who as "as thick as mince" are so blinkered they cannot see what is really going on here.

If there is to be a RTO in the near future (and I don't know for sure that there will be) then AAOG will be suspended for perhaps 4-6 months, and will remain suspended when we get the rig, when we spud, when we hit the Djeno (again), when we flow test, and then when we spud 104 etc and for all that time that little buy button won't work.

But when we do come back the Djeno will be proved and we will also have other producing assets.

20p, 25p, more?

So who will be "as thick as mince" then?

And the real question is not what I have seen in the documents, but why you cannot see it also?

Curious - it is not as opaque as you say - you should research more diligently . Medco is the seller not the buyer - doh!

Now why do you think they have charged midco?

Starter for 10.

Doodlebug6125 is such a teaser.

As Mulder and Scully would say "The truth is out there"

Question is where are the 1,000 shares going?

More hints please doodlebug!

HP is part of EHGOSF so they appear to be still involved.

The end game is getting closer and I think JB has been very busy. All roads lead to 12 Berkeley Street, hopefully they also lead to AAOG!

It seems pretty clear to me who can extend. Question is why would SFP extend? Maybe if it was in a shoddy condition or if they had no other takers, we know that the latter is not the case.

It is not up to ENI to say whether they will release it it is up to SFP. Odd but that is what the rns says. ENI can only have it till 30 December. Then when released we have to confirm that we want it.

"now that’s the formula for being thick"

Don't you believe it.

You may in fact be remarkably perceptive.

gmcc's excellent find on SMP-105

linkedin.com/company/smp-drilling.com/?feedView=images

is interesting for two reasons - it raises the possibility that SMP-105 is a replacement for another rig, and also refers to "deep exploration" suggesting that they will be going deeper than just the Mengo - M'boundi is a Mengo field.

If that rig is at M'boundi, 20 km to the east of us, then we will definitely have three outfits - AAOG, ENI at M'boundi and New Age at Marine III - drilling into the near land/land based Djeno in early 2020.

Africa Oil and Gas may also be drilling down to there at Pointe Indienne around 7 km from us shortly, as they've just finished construction of the first new pad there in around 20 years.

The sea based Djeno was only discovered in 2013.

In fact there appears to be a bit of a race on to get in deeper on and near land.

And JB may be on manoeuvers in the relatively near future.

What do you think may have prompted all this recent interest in deeper drilling close to our locale?

The resignation of David Sefton was registered at Companies House earlier today.

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/04140379/filing-history

Interesting that it should have taken them two and a half months to do a five minute job.

Oversight? Well, maybe. Difficult to read too much into why it should finally be registered now.

Maybe DS's name remaining on the register at Companies House served some useful purpose - even though he was no longer actually present at Anglo.

As to "our" rig, as 30th November falls on a non- working day, SFP probably have until close of business Monday to notify us of their intent. JB probably already knows the likelihood, but as always in the business world - formal legal notice will be left to the last minute.

I guess we then have so long to confirm that we will take the rig.

So, RNS the day after they confirm their intention, or when we confirm we'll take it?

Or could other events intervene?

Always questions - although I suspect that eventually all the answers will be good ones, very good ones.

TT,

I've got my eyes peeled!

Unfortunately it is cloudy much of the time in the vicinity of Tilapia-on-Sea. Great beach, but not so good for sunbathing.

This is an image taken this morning - 28th November 2019

https://ibb.co/ckFdQKF

With quite a bit of either sea mist or high level cloud - but at least you can see the pad. The business end surrounding the well head is clear - so no equipment there yet. There is a hint of something to the mid right of the pad, but the mist and resolution mean it could be just an imaging artefact and nothing in reality.

This is the last good clear view of the pad - 8th November 2019

https://ibb.co/xfXRJ5C

so you can compare the two. The 8 November 2019 image was taken a few days after there had been heavy rain and flooding in Pointe Noire and the pad appears to have been "cleaned" by the downpour. You can actually see sediment run off entering the sea and discolouring the water.

So the conclusion would be no major activity in the vicinity of the wellhead as yet.

I suspect we may get some news next week as we will be in December - rig in January or April is really a binary choice, and I think it is really 50/50. Certain matters suggest January - that SFP's option to extend, that ENI have contracted a new rig etc, but then things always seem to take longer than expected at AAOG. If there is a "delay" then the shares would, barring any other news, probably remain in the doldrums for another 3 months. I'm a bit frustrated, but holding for the long term.

So basically I'm not overly bothered.

There is always the possibility of a JB curve ball.

What has always struck me is that on the face of it, the ISA funding arrangement appears to be such a bad deal. You wouldn't really enter into that arrangement unless you thought that the shares were going to be 6.2p+ - and then you would be making oodles of money.

Which suggests there is something else in the background. I know some people get wound up by me saying that the deal making is going on in London, New York, Paris, Munich.... (great song, by the way)

Or rather London, Paris, Moscow, Beijing, Jakarta etc - but at least getting a bit of caustic comment shows that people are actually reading my posts.

Very comforting.

For quite how long JB can string things out and keep all under wraps until everything is in place I'm not sure.

Mrs Skittish is also very positive - to the extent that she has now "invested" this months housekeeping in AAOG shares, and is considering swapping Italy for Tunisia in terms of summer holidays - she says it still counts as "Mediterranean".

However I'm still supremely confident that we are in good hands, and looking out for that curve ball.

And i'll leave you with this -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPoiv0sZ4s4

irishmouse - I don't believe - but as always, cannot say for sure - that you will be disappointed.

I wouldn't profess to understand exactly what is going on but there is some evidence to suggest that JB (and friend(s)) have been very active over the last few weeks or so.

If this activity definitely involved AAOG then I'm sure we would be suspended by now as it would likely constitute a RTO (as it would have been earlier this year) so at this point in time it cannot be said for sure that AAOG are involved.

Maybe they don't want suspension (or want to delay it for as long as possible) as that would mess up the ISA arrangements.

However it appears that the Tunisian assets have been secured, subject to some final formalities.

The document I found at the weekend involving Midco was prepared by the same solicitors that AAOG uses and signed at their offices - so there can be no conflict of interest or potential future conflict of interest between what JB is doing now and his duties as CEO of AAOG.

As Tiburn says JB is leveraging his contact list to achieve results.

How quickly all this will develop I'm not sure, but it occurs to me that all those awaiting rig or spud news to buy in for "easy" profits may be disappointed if news of corporate activity does break and that "buy" button suddenly no longer works.

It was noticeable that in the few hours prior to the "Rubicon" comment being made, and on the day prior to Midco document arriving at the company registry there was significant and somewhat unusual buying of AAOG shares.

This suggests the Tunisian deal will ultimately involve AAOG in some manner or other.

But as yet there is no certain legal linkage, merely a confluence of people, names, addresses and dates.

But there is definitely feverish background activity surrounding JB and Tunisia, of that there is no doubt.

TT - very prophetic.

Especially bearing in mind the ATOG/Medco agreement wasn't signed until 23 April 2019.

Clearly whilst the Tunisia assets look very interesting there don't appear to be a load of suitable people falling over themselves to buy, which is probably helping ATOG ML keep the deal alive, and forcing Medco to be patient.

Financing options look interesting, but again it appears ATOG and EHGOSF struggled to raise go it alone financing, and now it may be that EHGOSF have been ditched. That is what the registered charge seems to imply.

One interesting point that occurs to me is why has Medco registered a charge against ATOG ML and its assets. No charge was registered against ATOG. On the face of it that appears perverse if ATOG ML has no assets. It only makes sense if ATOG ML does have assets.

Or is about to acquire assets.

Thinking out loud - maybe ATOG ML acquires the assets but doesn't have to pay in full up front? Once acquired the assets are secured and ATOG ML can then via AAOG leverage Tilapia to pay the remainder? Medco are protected as if ATOG ML didn't come up with the cash when due the charge would allow them to get the Tunisian assets back. And AAOG are protected as the charge is soley against ATOG ML?

All manner of interesting scenario's, and I guess it depends on how desperate Medco are to get rid of Tunisia. They've done nothing with it since 2015, so I guess they probably just want rid.

I'm sure despite the appearance of matters progressing at a glacial speed there is feverish activity going on behind the scenes.

AAOG and ATOG even use the same phone number - 020 3976 0030 - joined at the hip or what?

Nice find.

And this resume is quite something for a company that officially has no assets -

"ATOG is a privately-owned oil and gas exploration and production company, dedicated to realising the potential of its diversified asset portfolio and growing the business.

ATOG has an experienced and well-respected management team with over 200 combined years of oil and gas experience. The team are proven oil finders with strong technical, operational, financial and transactional expertise and a proven track record of developing several successful businesses including Ophir energy, AAOG, Fusion oil and gas and Impact oil and gas."

And that logo! They've just changed the colours from AAOG's.

Note the company address - 12 Berkeley Street - same as AAOG's offices.

Yes.

And I think plans could involve any number of other potential players.

You can however perceive that there is a plan, and that slowly it is coming together.

There is a way to go yet, and a number of issues to be sorted, but gradually you can see that things are improving, even if not reflected in the share price.

Whilst some say DS was given to hyperbole, at the end of the Chairman's letter in the AR dated 28 June 2019 he did give a glimpse of what might be to come -

"By the end of 2019, we expect the value of, and prospects for, the Company to be very different from what they are today."

The timeline might have slipped a little, but the direction is clear.

Excellent question irishmouse - answer is nowhere at the moment.

If we were in there somewhere - that is committed to the Medco deal - then I expect we would be suspended by now.

However....

Just thinking out loud - the Charge provides security against ATOG ML for all the obligations of ATOG under the SPA (as amended dated 23rd April 2019).

So ATOG ML has taken on all ATOG's obligations. That is potentially a very hefty burden - albeit likely limited at this stage. You wouldn't do that unless you were going to get some or likely all the benefits of the SPA.

Possibly another way of achieving the same result is if the EHGOSF guys had resigned from ATOG - but they provided the deposit for the SPA so would stay on to protect that investment, and get repaid if the deal is completed with someone else.

So they stay on at ATOG but the Medco deal is possibly now with ATOG ML - DS and JB.

If so then DS and JB have brought it back in house, and ditched EHGOSF.

Of course we can only see one side of this - the Charge which has now been registered against ATOG ML - we can't see the other side which is what benefits ATOG ML has received for taking on those obligations. And ATOG ML would have had no say in the registration of the charge as Medco would have insisted.

I read somewhere, possibly Africa Intelligence that Medco had got cold feet when DS changed hats and brought in EHGOSF, they would much rather deal with a stock market plc.

So ATOG ML must have got some money (or a guarantee of money) from somewhere - whether it be private or otherwise. I can't see AAOG putting more in after the £600k as that would just add more to the mill that has ground AAOG down.

So either ATOG ML are hoping to complete the deal with Medco privately - a big ask I think as they clearly haven't been able to raise sufficient funds to date - or AAOG may be involved further down the line - but not yet.

AAOG I don't think have sufficient funds to complete any deal at present - shareholders wouldn't stump up at 10p - so certainly not now - but if we came into some money then it maybe enough to do a deal with financing.

Maybe they (DS and JB) are just hoping to keep the deal alive until Djeno oil flows - which could be mid February 2020 - although I think it is 50/50 as to whether it will be mid May.

If that is the case and the deal is dependent on financing then the Djeno oil could provide the opportunity - although the Djeno oil is already promised to someone else under the Offtake Term Sheet. Or something else.

Lots going on behind the scenes, so lets see how this plays out.

PS - Yes ATOG Holdco - likely Anglo Tunisian Oil and Gas Holdings llp - silly me. In which case I would say they are also out of the equation and everything to do with Medco now reverts back to ATOG Midco Limited.

Either they have an independent source of financing or they are expecting some cash coming into AAOG shortly.

I should perhaps point out that under The Deed ATOG ML is agreeing to pay all the liabilities of ATOG due under the SPA of 23rd April 2019.

But obviously under the SPA ATOG would not have entered into a binding agreement, which could potentially be ruinous, and the deal would be progressed in stages subject to such matters as DD, raising of finance, paying Medco's costs if it fell through etc.

So ATOG ML have taken on these liabilities which for practical purposes will be paying Medco's costs until ATOG (or their assignees?) are able to reach a binding agreement, presumably after obtaining guaranteed finance.

Whatever, the deal is still alive, even if EHGOSF, the financiers, are unable or unwilling to even stump up enough cash to guarantee Medco's costs.

But clearly the deal was stalled until Medco obtained this binding commitment from ATOG ML.

Watch this space.....