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If we did get rid of EHGOSF and refinance the £1.3M then I would think that the shares would probably double immediately. Prior to the announcement latest funding round the shares were around 0.25p.

0.25p values us at around £4M with the 1.6bn presently in issue - giving around £1M for the listing, £2M for tax losses, and £1M for whatever business we have at present.

That said I'm not entirely convinced EHGOSF are history, and the share price seems to reflect a perception that a load more shares are to be issued, in one form or another, not to mention the selling which has been going on for months - albeit a quiet day today.

That said this could turn around quick, but they need close to £100K per month just to pay the wage bill for the 8 they've got at the moment, so any contracts will need to be pretty good.

That said I'm pretty mystified as to why there are no real contracts at present, given their previous track record.

Hopefully whatever you are hearing on contracts will come to fruition, it probably would only take a couple of decent sized contracts to pay the wage bill and leave a bit over for refinancing.

This could turn very fast but thus far the market is not convinced, and it appears most pi's have completely lost faith/interest in this one.

So maybe this is the bottom?

This is the plan, taken from a presentation earlier this year, which shows that Dyesi 1 was drilled to the Vandji.

https://ibb.co/9V6Fntx

Tilapia is actually located where the last "a" of Tilapia is on the map (my annotation), so the yellow dot immediately above the "a" accords exactly with the location of N2 - Dyesi 1.

Google Earth from 2013 shows an overgrown "squarish" patch about 100 metres east of N2. By 2017 this is completely overgrown and barely distinguishable from the surrounding vegetation, so that may be the actual location of the Dyesi 1 pad. The problem in Congo B is it is wet and humid all year round - so everything grows fast.

So Dyesi 1 was definitely drilled into the Vandji and hit sandstone - but no further details. But the latest overlay suggests it didn't strike oil/gas and the well was therefore abandoned - which accords with the GE images. I think the conclusion of the paper I got the info from was that those few wells that had been drilled into the Vandji had varying results relating to the rock type and permeability they found.

That the Chinese then drill N2 at the same location suggests something interesting was found at Dyesi 1 (even if not oil), and it was worth revisiting and they appear to have struck oil, as the pad has been left ready for reuse, but at what depth is impossible to say. Dyesi 1 (Diyesi) is also cited our 2016 CPR so clearly there is more information available to professional drillers.

To me the importance of Congo B is that it remains relatively unexplored. whilst oil has been produced since 1957 the big Djeno discoveries have only come within the last decade. Is it as good as Brazil? The general opinion suggests (from what I read) that it isn't, but then we don't need to find 10 Bn barrels+ to get the shares back to the heady heights of 10p.

New Age regards Congo B as an "undervalued" proven oil and gas province.

I'd prefer to say under explored. I don't think any drilling has ever taken place on Marine III next door to us. That will change in the next few months.

i keep saying it but I'm sure much is going on in the background, even if it is taking longer to resolve, maybe, than anticipated.

So sit and wait is the order of the day, and marshal finances accordingly.

I have always struggled to find information concerning the drilling results of our neighbours a few km to the east of Tilapia.

However this paper

file:///C:/Users/Owner/Downloads/AAOG%20SNPC%20Cape%20conference%20April%202019%204-11-2019%20Focus-SNPC_English-version_Final.pdf

Presented at a conference in April 2019 presents some clues concerning well results in Congo. On slide 13 there is a map showing selective well results.

https://ibb.co/QJ6hN1Z

By carefully overlaying the slide onto Google Earth the ground locations of the wells can be identified and using the symbols one can identify the well results - I assume it is clear for duster, green for gusher.

This is a general area view

https://ibb.co/6gyrHpV

And this a close up surrounding Tilapia

https://ibb.co/60JGktX

I've previously just used letters and numbers (S, S2, S3 etc) to identify the wells, but splicing together GE and the map we now know at least some of their real names, and a couple of drills not readily identifiable on the GE imagery.

This is my general map of Chinese drilling activity, with the wells I've been able to identify

https://ibb.co/pd9T9GF

And we can now see that

N is actually Holmoni 2 and it was a gusher!

Close up here https://ibb.co/qFPCCZg

E3 is actually Holmoni 1 - gusher again!

Close up https://ibb.co/qNmDhYC

E5 is actually ZK182 - I had thought ZK182 was at the location of S3, but it is definitely E5 - and we know that was a gusher as it had a blow out which was reported in the local press - oil everywhere.

Close up https://ibb.co/r3HxbqH

Bas Kouilou appears to have been a duster - I haven't found any decent images for this as GE imagery in this location is pre 2014.

N2 is appears to be at the Dyesi 1 location and it appears to have been a duster. Dyesi 1 is interesting as it is referred to in the CPR dated October 2016 referred to in the AAOG Admission Document, there spelled "Diyesi". We know Dyesi was drilled into the Vandji sandstone from another paper presented at a conference around February this year. But N2 wasn't drilled until early 2018 - so it would appear that whilst the results of Dyesi 1 show it may have been unsuccessful, the Chinese decided to revisit the site and this is N2 a couple of months ago showing equipment (and possibly a well head) left at the site suggesting they had more success. So maybe N2 should be Diyesi 2.

https://ibb.co/vmJPyzm

Of course, with the exception of Dyesi 1 we don't know exactly how deep the wells were drilled, and don't know any precise flow rates. However drilling to our east definitely struck oil.

And for those interested this is Tilapia at 9.15 this morning

https://ibb.co/7C1WFkd

A bit cloudy, but you can see the pad peeping through. Make of it what you will.

I'm not one (much) for conspiracy theories but Google Earth (and googling generally) leads one into some strange places.

The locality at Tilapia is interesting

https://ibb.co/7W9DBVs

Tilapia is at the top, some of the Chinese wells can just be seen to the immediate east, M'Boundi 20km to the east, Pointe Indienne around 10km to the south.

Pointe Indienne hosts the oldest oil and gas field in Congo, which has been in production since 1957. In fact Wood MacKenzie appears to think that it is no longer in production

https://www.woodmac.com/reports/upstream-oil-and-gas-pointe-indienne-615395

so only produces a historic report.

That said in 2016 a new production sharing contract was signed between the government and African Oil and Gas Corporation. Google Earth still shows the existence of a gas flare.

https://ibb.co/XWnhsfT

So an old, tired field, around 10km to the south of us, which may still produce something.

This was the area just to the south of the gas flare on 27 August 2018.

https://ibb.co/SNnhzkf

This was the same area on 17 April 2019

https://ibb.co/zPbjSJL

And with my annotations

https://ibb.co/Xj9Y5V8

There are five distinct cleared and levelled areas - could possibly be for agriculture, but the existence of new roadways suggest something more interesting.

Then on 20th August 2019 a PlanetLabs image reveals a new roadway leading all the way to the northern most clearing which now looks a bit like a drilling pad.

https://ibb.co/S0Y4m9S

By 27 October 2019 things look a bit more serious, with an equipment area, what could be offices, and an elongated black "blob" - which we all know is likely a stack of drilling pipes.

This is a closeup of the same area, which I will refer to from now on as "PI Pad 1"

https://ibb.co/QpZSBHj

No rig, as yet, but I suspect it is only a matter of time.

So far, so mildly interesting. Someone else appears to be about to drill on an old field, for the first time in years, which has been in operation for over half a century.

Except that the Pointe Indienne field is owned by the Africa Oil and Gas Corporation which in turn is owned by Denis Gokana who just happens to be very close to Gerard Bourgoin of Sister Holdings SAS, our 4.12% shareholder.

https://ibb.co/QmqLTxS

Although no longer the head of SNPC, here they are described as the "triumverate" -

http://www.congopage.com/Le-Congo-en-route-pour-la-maitrise

I wonder what he expects to find and where he might have got the idea from that it might be worth drilling again on this old and tired field?

Possibly a recent Djeno discovery some 10km to the north? Maybe? All speculative, of course - drilling included.

I can now report Mrs Skittish has arrived in the antipodes. I'm sure she'll be pleased I'm spending my time wisely.

irishmouse - You are in luck! The satellite and the Tilapia weather have been co operative at last - at least co operative enough to return a few grainy images courtesy of PlanetLabs.

This images shows Tilapia on 12th September 2019

https://ibb.co/Nt6yMv4

This image shows Tilapia on 27th October 2019

https://ibb.co/9NmRHFX

This is a raw comparison of the two

https://ibb.co/XWz1QTf

and this with my annotations

https://ibb.co/gr6P2my

The red dot is the location of the TLP-103C wellhead.

In the 6 weeks between the dates the two black "blobs" have disappeared, two areas of disturbed ground have appeared - suggesting movement of heavy equipment and two new elongated objects have appeared close to the middle of the pad. But no activity directly over the wellhead, so no rig set up as of 27th October 2019.

For the uninitiated this is a closer view of the general layout of the pad, taken on 31st December 2018 during drilling of TLP-103C

https://ibb.co/TkqJG0p

and the black "blobs", also visible in the last image are actually drill pipes as can be seen in this drone footage of the spud ceremony for TLP-103 in August 2018. The rig was subsequently moved to the area of the seating in the background to drill TLP-103C

https://ibb.co/3Mg2tg2

So in July/August 2019 we had the removal of all the porta cabins and the rig by SMP, and now we have removal (or at least movement) of pipework and what appears to be some new equipment. So it looks like the pad has being cleared in preparation for new activity.

There also appears to have been some activity close to the gatehouse, shown in the top right hand corner of these images - 12th September on the left, 27th October on the right

https://ibb.co/QCdcS2m

The bright area around the gatehouse appears to have increase in size, suggesting either new buildings or an extension to the concreted area. To give context this is drone footage of the gatehouse area from August 2018 -

https://ibb.co/kXM1zmv

i know many are very frustrated on here. I am frustrated with the share price, but overall fairly relaxed. That the share price has increased fairly significantly over the last couple of weeks, despite the headwinds of the ISA partners selling 300K shares per day and no news is heartening. As for the new news strategy no amount of masculine chest beating here or elsewhere
is going to push the directors to release news before they are ready. They've obviously decided to sweat this out.

Whether, when it arrives it is the news we are all expecting, I'm not so sure. We shall see. But I am sure it will have been worth waiting for.

AAOG also updated the shareholder register on Friday

http://www.aaog.com/content/investors/shareholder-information.asp

Continued/......

Continued/.....

Miton are still there with 19.41%, Sister Holdings SAS with 4.12% and Kilkenny with 3.15%. Sister, of course, are the original owners of Petro Kouliou and are owned by Gerard Bourgoin who is our close link with SNPC and President Sassou Nguesso. Bourgoin's daughter Axelle still runs the PK office in Pointe Noire.

There has been a bit of speculation on here as to whether we could simply produce from TLP-103C now by just drilling out the plug, and letting the oil flow out. I can't see that happening. I'm no drilling engineer (far from it) but to my mind there are a few clues in the documents we have that speak of the problems during the drill of TLP-103C.

We know there were problems with the rig. But there were other problems when they hit the Upper Djeno. This is hinted at in the TLP-103C-ST well plan

http://www.aaog.com/archive/summary-notes/AAOG-TLP-103C-08August2019.pdf

"A further 5m of the original 8 ½” hole will be cleaned out, and a formation integrity test will be performed prior to drilling out the remainder of the lower cement plug to re-enter the previous 8 ½” open hole."

The 8 1/2" hole remains an "open hole". They appear to have cemented only down to the 9 5/8" casing shoe, or just below. They also refer to pressure tests and formation integrity test prior to setting the new plug. They can complete a formation integrity test only because the area between the 9 5/8" shoe and the old plug isn't cemented ie the rock formation remains exposed.

Why is this? Well this may explain it.

https://ibb.co/23T8pxT

I've marked the Upper Djeno level in red. They only drilled around for another 60 metres below the Upper Djeno, perhaps only half a days drilling, or less. We know they encountered excessive pressures and pumped huge amounts of mud down the well to control it - and they believed this had damaged the formation to the extent that it wouldn't produce.

They didn't cement the last 500 metres, or take wire line logs or samples for the CPR. So it appears that they got out of the well in a hurry, possibly due to the excessive pressures. Which brings me to the leaking plug.

If they did have to get out of the well quickly then they would need to seal it off quickly and set the cement plug. One way of getting the cement to set quickly is to add calcium chloride - this produces a high amount of heat and reduces the setting time. But it also leads to expansion and contraction of the cement and produces micro annuli and shrinkage - hence the leaking plug.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Well_cementing

So the excessive (and possibly unexpected) pressure could explain the lack of cement, lack of information for the CPR, and the leaking plug.

And their confidence they have a major find on their hands.

They will be ready for the pressure on TLP-103C-ST.

Continued...

"From AEI 20/3/18

In a buoyant press release posted early March, Anglo African Oil & Gas, partly controlled by French businessman Gerard Bourgoin, enthusiastically declared that Societe Nationale des Petroles du Congo (SNPC) had "recommended" that its producing block Tilapia be extended for a further 20 years. However, there are several grey areas to consider. The hydrocarbons code does not allow the Congolese State to renew a permit more than 12 months before the end of the contract. This means the minister will not be able to approve the extension until 2019, given that the current production period legally ends in 2020.

Whilst AAOG aims to drill a well over the coming months, it will need to raise funds from investors convinced that the permit has been renewed. Again, this possibility cannot be confirmed until 2019.

With 2018 proving to be a year of uncertainly, as the promise of a renewal is only based on a recommendation from the SNPC, Bourgoin has been trying to protect his back. He has the support of his friend Denis Gokana, who previously chaired the SNPC. Gokana, who enjoys close ties with President Denis Sassou Nguesso, as does Bourgoin himself, reportedly assured the French entrepreneur that the permit will be renewed in 2019. According to our sources, it is not entirely impossible that Gokana's firm Africa Oil & Gas Corp will invest in Tilapia if the renewal is signed."

I actually believe that the licence can only be renewed in the last 6 months, so from 20th January 2020 onwards.

There are wheels within wheels here, and PK have friends in high places.

Who is Gerard Burgoin?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gérard_Bourgoin

As of 2018 he was DG of PK

https://www.youinvest.co.uk/articles/stockmarketwire/142472/anglo-african-oil-gas-subsidiary-petro-kouilou-finalises-contract

https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/person/20101182

And the present Assistant General Manager of PK - Axelle Burgoin - likely his daughter I'd suggest.

https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/person/20101185

http://www.congopage.com/Le-Congo-en-route-pour-la-maitrise

AAOG has friends in high places.

YA II appear to have sold slightly below the target number of shares required under the financing deal.

They started off with 13.79% on 24th July, or 54,665,505.

Today we are told they have 11.89% or 47,168,006.

So, they've sold 7,497,499 over around the last two months which is slightly under their half share of the monthly trades -

"in order for the Company to recoup the ISA Proceeds in full, the Investors would have to sell 9,110,918 Ordinary Shares (the "Assumed Monthly Traded Shares"), being 1/12(th) of the ISA Shares, at the Benchmark Price each month"

So they've sold around 82% of their required target sales in September/October, bearing in mind October isn't over yet, and they could have been selling since around 22nd August. And we don't yet know how many Riverfort have sold.

There appears to be an RNS missing for when they went under 13%. They seem to be in no great hurry to get rid of the shares, and of course only make "proper" money when the share price is considerably higher than it is now. So maybe they are playing it cool.

Still believe there is much going on behind the scenes.

The financing deal under the off take and pre-payment agreement really only makes sense to me as part of the licence negotiations. AAOG have to show they have the expertise and finance available to develop Tilapia.

Maybe they are waiting for the formal licence renewal before progressing matters - I was a skeptic, but maybe it is so.

After the formal licence renewal is granted many things become possible.

Tunisia? Let's see. Let's assume the Anglo Tunisian Oil and Gas/Medco deal has expired. Medco paid $114M for the assets in 2014 when oil prices were at their peak of $106/b. Since then they've done virtually nothing with them, the oil price has declined by 51% and production from the fields is 32% lower. We could be looking at a base figure somewhere around $40M - very much a fag packet calculation.

Clearly as ATOG hasn't completed using EHGOSF finance, it is difficult to see how DS and JB could complete on their own. EHGOSF would have been scrabbling round for money for months and presumably couldn't raise it.

Say Medco sells to Midco for $40M, finance provided by AAOG. Question is where would AAOG get that kind of cash from? Some by way of loan secured against Tunisia production but probably would have to stump up a reasonable share in cash. The off take monies would probably be ring fenced for Tilapia. So another source of finance?

Personally I'm not expecting news soon (maybe wrong of course), but when it does come suspect it may be fast and furious, and well worth waiting for.

Watching and waiting, but fairly relaxed at the moment.

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