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An excellent RNS today.

The share price however remains muted. I think the RNS today is merely part of a much bigger picture - hence it has been misunderstood.

It is of course conditional on a successful drill at TLP-103C-ST, and no doubt appropriate reports and CPR following that. They already have the cash for that under the financing deal put in place in July. So, the new financing deal won't be finally in place for a few months yet.

However, I also think that it is a matter of signalling - to SNPC and others that AAOG is fully cashed up and can develop Tilapia on its own if necessary. Important for the licence and also important if you are trying to negotiate a deal on Tilapia itself. If you are negotiating you want to appear strong and wadded, not weak and brassic.

It also raises further questions over why the Riverfort deal was done in the manner it was. Thus far AAOG is seriously out of pocket on the share sales, as anyone can see the price is around half that of the base price.

Whilst it raises questions, I'm sure there is an answer out there - but as yet we don't know what it is. I suspect that AAOG will ultimately do well out of the Riverfort financing deal - possibly very well - but there is more (I'm sure) to be revealed on that in due course.

Tiptop posted yesterday on an interesting thread regarding some Tunisian assets owned by Medco. There were quite a few interesting linkages, including Ophir/Berwick and staffing.

Here is another.

Quote from Tiptop's post -

"On April 23, 2019, Medco Energi Global Pte Ltd signed a share purchase and sale agreement (SSPA) to sell 100% of its shares in Medco Tunisia Petroleum Ltd. "As of the date of the consolidated financial statements, the sale transaction is still in the process of being settled," wrote Medco's management. Medco Tunisia Petroleum controls block ownership rights in eight working areas."

The clue is in the date and the fact the deal has not yet completed.

23rd April 2019 was the date Vanineuse, Pingray and Mamou-Mani were appointed directors of Anglo Tunisian Oil and Gas Limited.

https://beta.companiesho use.gov.uk/company/11899484/filing-history

It was also the date that the share capital was increased from £1 to £1,000 and it was that day the shares were split 50/50 between DS and JB's LLP and EHGOSF,

That all that happened on 23rd April 2019 is confirmed in AAOG's RNS of 12th July 2019.

" ATOG has to date been financed by a loan from EHGOS. This loan has been used to finance the initial payment for the assets relating to the Proposed Acquisition. In conjunction with the provision of the loan, EHGOS acquired a 50% equity interest in ATOG for a nominal amount and three representatives of EHGOS were appointed to the board of ATOG"

Continued/..

I don't believe that DS would gloat.

Or if he was to - he would do it in a more sophisticated way than simply setting up a new company with a capital of £1.

I suspect that the AAOG board are inundated with emails asking why there is no apparent activity, so maybe he (if it was he - and of course we don't know that) was hoping to take a little heat off them.

AAOG is a bit of a minnow in Congo with many larger fish close by - in fact surrounded by them - Lukoil, New Age, Wing Wah, Gazprom etc.

I can see that as being something of a disadvantage, as well as an advantage, given our location. The others are tooled up with cash, whereas we have to scrimp and scrape - although we are fully funded for TLP-103CST.

On the New Age website they refer to Marine III as "low risk appraisal" - that is quite something, bearing in mind that it hasn't been drilled yet.

http://www.newafricanglobalenergy.com/our-portfolio/

They have done seismic this year and bearing in mind, most of their plays are right next to our licence area they would almost certainly - foolish not to - have done detailed seismic over our licence area also. You could imagine them saying to AAOG we'll swap our seismic for your TLP-103C drilling data.

New Age also altered their web page on 8th October 2019 (first alteration in around a year) to reflect the divestment of Marine XII and to report that they intended drilling on Marine III Q1 2020 - and that was a firm date. The actual location is not specified, but it could be really close to us.

Bearing in mind we are (allegedly) intending to drill Q4 2019 I thought this was really significant. Everyone knows my thoughts on potentially drilling Marine III using our Tilapia pad.

Having discovered the Q1 2020 New Age drilling date (and shouted whoopee!!) I then posted that information on here that evening - and a link to the webpage. By the evening of 9th October 2019 New Age had again altered their web page simply to refer to Marine III drilling "sometime" in 2020.

http://www.newafricanglobalenergy.com/congo-brazzaville/

Now, so significant did I regard the firm Q1 2020 date that I actually took a screenshot of the page - I've had pages altered on me before.

https://ibb.co/kHvTCyw

Left is the 8th October Q1 2020, and 24 hours later just 2020. The significance is no longer in the dates, but the alteration. As always it is the cover up that is significant, not the original action itself.

Call me a conspiracy theorist if you want - I'm sure doodlebug6125 would - but there appears to be plenty going on surrounding AAOG, both metaphorically and literally.

As I say - watch this space...

irishmouse,

doodlebug6125 posted at 15.02 on Friday and "his" post stated "New company ATOG MIDCO Ltd today...."

The post has not been removed. I've already mentioned that this is his first post although he has been a member of LSE since 13th May 2015. The AAOG admission document states that the then ED's were raising finance for what would become AAOG by June 2015.

A more important question is why create another ATOG company?

There are now -

Anglo Tunisian Oil and Gas Limited created 22nd March 2019

DS director that day, JB director 25th March 2019, Vanineuse, Pingray, Mamou-Mani (EHGOSF - Alpha blue Ocean) directors 23rd April 2019. This company was originally controlled by DS but since 23rd April 2019 has been controlled (25% to 50% of the shares) by

Anglo Tunisian Oil & Gas LLP which was created on 23rd April 2019, DS and JB appointed directors that day each with 50% of the shares.

(The 12th July 2019 AAOG RNS states that ATOG Limited is controlled 50% by ATOG LLP and 50% by ABO in return for the initial financing of ATOG Limited by ABO)

Anglo African Group Limited created 25th April 2019, DS sole director and with control.

ATOG Midco Limited created 18th October 2019, DS and JB directors, DS has control, 75% plus of shares - in fact 1 share owned by DS.

The 12th July 2019 RNS also stated "The Company will continue to review whether any transaction between ATOG and AAOG should be treated as a related party transaction pursuant to the AIM Rules for Companies" which raises the possibility that there could be future transactions between AAOG and ATOG.

The name "ATOG Midco" suggests it could be used to transfer assets between one entity and another entity - although names can be deceptive of course. Perhaps more importantly it hasn't got any directors from ABO sitting on the board. They can't be removed from the board of ATOG Limited as they have 50% of the shares, so the existence of ATOG Midco Limited neatly excludes them.

I somehow got the impression that the seller of the Tunisian assets got cold feet after DS changed hats, so maybe thought that ABO weren't suitable buyers (shades of Philip Green and BHS), so maybe if DS and JB put on their AAOG hat again things might move forwards.

doodlebug's post was certainly a signal of some sort - but quite what it means I'm not entirely sure.

DS always was a bit of a tease.

More exciting than re-entering TLP-103C? What could be more exciting than that? Well maybe some sort of significant deal leveraged with a share of Tilapia?

Definitely a question of watch this space.

Tiburn - the handle was created on 13th May 2015, so I think it is unlikely to have any meaning related to AAOG shareholders.

But, as you say, interesting choice of name.

This is from the AAOG admission document -

"In June 2015, the Company was approached by the Executive Directors, who were themselves in discussions with
London-based institutional investors to raise capital to acquire PK from Sister and to fund PK’s
development of Tilapia."

The ED's of course included DS and others. So interesting coincidence of dates.

Whilst Angela is, on a rare odd occasion, useful for providing a bit of information, she does appear to get her knickers in a bit of a twist sometimes, and naturally tends to put the worst slant on things a la "ebola", and we'll still be paying for "the rig" until the earth stops spinning.

Agreed Tunisia would appear to be suitable in the right circumstances.

ATOG Midco Ltd does appear to show it isn't completely dead -

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/12270869

I don't know whether the value of the Tunisian assets (or indeed exactly which assets they were) was ever pinned down - suggestions were that it could be well into the $ tens millions or even $ hundred millions.

But if AAOG ever became cash rich (perish the thought!) then it could buy an additional asset outright or possibly use leveraged finance, or bring in third parties to assist.

I'm mindful that Zengas believes the New Age/CNOOC deal on Marine III is due to complete around the end of this month. China also takes nearly all the production from the Marine XII field which New Age recently sold to Lukoil.

Once Marine III completes we will be surrounded by the Chinese, Wing Wah to the West, CNOOC to the East.

At the risk of doing it to death here is my view of Tilapia and surroundings.

https://ibb.co/GHVNVZM

showing Marine III, Wing Wah and us in the middle.

Take out the Rain Forest (which the Congolese government appear to be very keen and active in preserving), the Nature Reserve and Tchimpounga Animal Sanctuary all of which encompass most of Wing Wah's licence area and there aren't many places - apart from our patch - to place major infrastructure. You can also write off the area north of the River Kouliou as there are reports the bridge may have to be demolished as it is in such poor repair.

So, our licence area is potentially very valuable.

Could we become cash rich very quickly?

Maybe - watch this space.

I'm sure there is a reason for the present apparent inactivity - emphasis on the word apparent.

If AAOG were to sell Tilapia (or a share thereof), then we would be free and able to buy the Tunisian assets.

The current share price remains frustrating to say the least.

However drilling down into the information which we have - I thought I'd put forward a few points.

I would point out however, at the start, that it is not only DS who has a law degree, JB has one as well. So it is important to read very carefully the information that the company puts out.

Firstly, I'm a little puzzled as to why several posters are saying that Anglo have failed to RNS the proceeds from the September tranche of the fundraising when there is no requirement for them to do this.

The agreement outlined in the 17th July 2019 RNS provides -

" Within five business days of the end of every month for which the ISA operates, the Company will notify the Investors of its calculation of the adjustments to be made to the Monthly Settlement based on the volume weighted average price ("VWAP") of the Ordinary Shares on the trading days in the preceding calendar month."

The key word is the "Investors" with a capital "I". The "Investors" is defined in the RNS - it isn't shareholders, it isn't "investors" (with a little "i"), it isn't the dog down the road, it is Riverfort and YAII -

"the entry into an Investor Sharing Agreement (the "ISA") between AAOG, YA II PN, Ltd ("YA II") and Riverfort Global Opportunities PCC Limited ("Riverfort" and, together with YA II, the "Investors")"

It is absolutely clear - and I'm quite sure that the "Investors" have now been duly notified in accordance with the agreement. There is no need for shareholders to be advised of the amount received, just as there is no need to be advised as to every time Anglo receives money or pays an invoice.

Secondly, and completely separately, someone commented on this sentence a couple of weeks ago, taken from the 11th September 2019 RNS

"The Company's management continue discussions with the operators of two potential rigs, both currently situated in the Republic of the Congo, with a view to securing a drilling slot during November."

Certainly on first reading and taken with the 5th August RNS - "have drilling slots available this year." - I thought that meant we would be drilling in November, but I'm increasingly coming round to the view that it means we will be notified in November of when our drilling slot is to be. Safe to say I'd be more than happy to be proved wrong, and if a rig suddenly turns up I'll be dancing a jig, but I am, now - not expecting one just yet.

Thirdly, there is a lot of talk about how Anglo is potentially short of funds to drill TLP-103ST

That appears to arise from these paragraphs in the Interims of 27th August 2019 -

Continued/

Continued..

"Following the period-end, the Company completed a further fundraising for up to £8.25m. This comprised a placing of 49,288,347 ordinary shares of five pence each at a price of 5.2p raising a total of £2,562,994.04 and the entry into an Investor Sharing Agreement between AAOG, YA II PN, Ltd and Riverfort Global Opportunities PCC Limited. The consortium subscribed for 109,331,011 Ordinary Shares at the Issue Price for a total commitment of up to £5,685,212.57, dependent on the AAOG share price and the trading volumes during the twelve-month period of agreement. The funds will be released to the Company over the next 12 months.

These funds, alongside continued anticipated receipts from our partner Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo ('SNPC'), the Congolese national oil company, are expected to enable the Company to re-enter the TLP-103C well at Tilapia with a view to producing oil from the Djeno horizon."

The key phrase here is the words "up to".

They've raised a definite £2.563M from Miton and "up to" £5.685m from the "Investors" - capital "I". But "up to" could be anything from £0 to £5.563M.

The 17th July 2019 RNS explains it perfectly -

"Risk and Rationale

As explained above, the Company will not receive the full value of the Returned ISA Proceeds if the One Month VWAP is below the Benchmark Price and there is therefore no guarantee to the amount, if any, that the Company will receive."

Key words "if any".

So theoretically the company could receive nothing of the £5.685M from the finance deal, yet would still have sufficient funds to drill.

As to the SNPC debt - the interims state

"Recoverability of debtor balances
Significant estimation is required in the determination of the fair value of debtor balance due from SNPC, taking account of the payments made by SNPC to the date of this report and the stated intention of SNPC to repay the amount due."

So, the company may not be actually anticipating any receipts from SNPC - hoping maybe - estimating maybe - putting in something for the accounts maybe - but not actually anticipating.

So again, no money from SNPC - yet they would still have enough money to drill TLP-103ST.

Otherwise, why would Miton put in their £2.563M on the off chance that Anglo would get the rest of the money (iffy, I'd say at the moment) at some time over the next 12 months?

Fourthly, why was the £5.685M structured thus? The Investors gave Anglo all the money, only for Anglo to give it all back!!! There is a reason - and Anglo expects to benefit over the next 12 months, although obviously they aren't doing so thus far.

So in summary -

1. No RNS on the financing
2. November drill - well maybe
3. Obviously, actually, fully funded
4. Anticipate interesting events

All IMHO etc.

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