Member Info for skittish

Apart from a flurry of small sells totalling 1005 shares around 11.08, it appears to have been all buys for the last two hours. I've got another feed and that shows the same.

Of course it is just indicative, based on price, but appears odd.

Price moved up now so we'll see what (if anything) develops.

Over an hour and a half and no sells, all buys - 80 consecutive.

Something afoot - big sell, news, tipped somewhere?

Either the pattern will break, or news....

Well someone obviously is, as there has been something, I would say of an unusual amount of buying activity post 9.00am.

The 250K sell was obviously from y'day as it hasn't been added to the total.

No price movement, so maybe a large sell on the way, but in recent days the sells and buys have been kept generally level. Today buys moving ahead.

Odd.

Odysseus07, didn't mean to offend, but you just appeared a little de rampy ... 4p and all that.

I think that that prospect is some way off, to say the least.

I suspect, even if Tai-1 is a "duster" we will still be around 20p after a few days, even if there were to be a sharp fall after any initial news.

However bearing in mind this is the first drill in a 3/4 well programme, and He 1 is already funded for further drills after that, that we have already found 2.2% He @ 70M, and also helium springs 20km SE of us have been flowing 10.6% He for the last 60 years+ (likely 600,000 years+ IMHO) I think Tai-1, even if not a rip roaring success, will have found enough to prevent the share price from falling from its current levels.

Personally I think Tai-1 will have found enough to be considered a rip roaring success.

If so I would consider that all the calculations done to date of valuations will be so much waste paper.

That we have licenced most of the potential source area for what is a unique global asset, and that other sources of He are likely to be running low (very low) with the ending of mass gas extraction shortly after 2030/2035 could mean that Rukwa is the only large scale source of He from 2035 onwards. He1 is of course reliant on the good offices of the Tanzanian government and people.

I suspect on a major find everything will be reappraised.

And the very active and large scale trading continues without a TR1.

Something like around 7% of the company over just the last 2 days, and that is even without news.

Never a TR1 indicating an increased holding since IPO...

I suspect (but have no evidence, save the lack of any TR!, and the large scale trading) that mass accumulation is taking place, but that the party (or parties) involved have no intention of filing a TR1. Of course the company will say that they've got it covered in the ability to refuse to register the holding(s); but my view is a bit like the bank and the impercunious debtor - if the debtor owes the bank £1M, it is the debtor who is worried, if the debtor owes £100M then it is the bank which is worried.

No doubt it will all come out in the wash.

Feeling upbeat, and I suspect after DM's latest "David Attenborough" style clip, he is also, otherwise why do it?

Rutka don't exist so will not produce commercial helium.

Rukwa does exist and likely will, shortly.

Great to see the informed joining in, albeit with limited effort.

Above 40 upon discovery?

More like 60 - 80.

They have licences for nearly all the Rukwa area.

If they confirm a commercial discovery it will be the biggest He area in the world, which will likely be exploitable for 100 years+.

Even if Tai-1 isn't commercial, I would only see relatively limited downside from here, until the 3/4 well programme is complete.

Then the full results can be assessed.

Oberon just housekeeping.

But I think that it is odd, since IPO no-one has ever reported an increased holding, despite the significant number of large trades.

Maybe some don't play by the rules.

Yes, he is always "glass half empty" on He1.

But that is his style, but overall his returns appear quite good, if a little slow.

So with He1 is way outside his comfort zone - but he also writes for ii and there he has described He1 along the lines of a small British company leading the world.

So the impressive fact for me is that he remains fully invested.

Let us see what next week brings, despite the setback the share price has held up quite impressively.

Also the exercise of warrants RNS's appear to have dried up recently having been issued -

23-6-21 - 1 Million
16-6-21 - 400K
7-6-21 -300K
27-5-21 -1 Million
21-5-21 - 2.4 Million
1-5-21 - 3.8 Million
4-5-21 - 4.7 Million
27-4-21 - 1.5 Million

Drilling started on 12-6-21 and that first gas show was on 21-6-21, so those early stage investors with the cheap warrants all appear to be quite willing to sit on their hands following the first gas show and are letting the drill bit do the talking.

And having invested around mid April Mr Cowie is sitting on his hands also.

Good enough for me!

I don't know whether this has been posted before but it is a summary of the meetings of the TGS on 25th - 29th November 2020.

https://www.tgs.or.tz/publication/attachments/5/Book_of_Abstracts_-_TGS_Workshop_2020.pdf

Page 28 is the relevant paper - written by Tz geologists and geologists from Oxford and Woods Hole - 53/93 on the pdf.

Really confirms that the amount of He in seeps (note plural )in Rukwa all have concentrations of 2.4 - 6.9% He at the surface.

Ties in with our 2.2% at 70 metres, and whatever has been found around 550 metres.

We will see what those values are, but all looking good.

If we hit a reservoir it would suggest that concentrations will be somewhere between these values ie highly commercial.

As an aside Ian Cowie has never, to my knowledge written about any single share three times in three months, previously in the Sunday Times.

He1 update from Ian Cowie in the Sunday Times today.

As everyone knows he is an ultra cautious investor, but now admits to having 2% of his portfolio in here, having bought at 10.6p.

He finishes thus "So I repeat here that high-risk punts should only ever be small parts of diversified portfolios. There is no recommendation that anyone should follow me into HE1, which is worth just over 2 per cent of my life savings."

So he is still invested here which is in itself something of an endorsement, although he himself, I'm sure, would likely deny that.

Certainly not a ringing endorsement if you are a gung-ho investor, but he is ultra cautious, and still here.

Yes, it will be interesting to see which way we go after Tai-1 is completed.

I guess the big question is whether it will find a commercial reservoir.

If not then maybe carry on with the 3/4 well exploration programme as announced.

If it does find commercially recoverable helium in decent quantities then I guess all bets are off. Odd that as yet as second/third drilling location has not been prepared, so far as we are aware. They would still have all the equipment available I guess from Tai-1 prep.

Maybe they are keeping their powder dry awaiting full results and analysis at Tai-1 before deciding where to go. Stay close for appraisal, or go further afield?

Those last set of directors' options may be at risk as one of their conditions was on time completion of the drilling programme - but I guess they could be reissued under slightly different terms in the event of a good find, and no one would mind.

But if there is a bumper find I suspect some parties will be all over this like a rash, if they aren't already. Presumably UK, US or EU based entities would feel duty bound to issue a TR-1, others further afield may not feel such an obligation.

The point I was making was that the shareholder base may be broader already that the 4 TR-1's issued since IPO suggest to us pi's. One TR-1 was immediately post IPO, the other three minor sells in 2021. Never a TR-1 indicating an increase above 3%, despite almost daily very substantial trades, both buying and selling. We don't know one way or the other, of course, save that the big buys and sells never, ever result in a TR-1.

No doubt it will all come out in the wash, but I have my doubts, whatever path they take, whether He-1 will ever make it to commercial production as an independent entity.

I'm sure both US and Chinese eyes are already looking very closely at Rukwa, and a commercial find will be the starting gun for a major scramble to achieve control of the licences for this (still potential, but maybe for not much longer) global strategic asset.

A couple of articles give a bit of background on this aspect of the 21st Century struggle for global dominance between the US and China.

Helium, of course is not a rare earth, but the same rules will apply for any strategic global asset.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2021/06/02/chinas-journey-to-the-center-of-the-earth/?sh=369a76c2131f

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/17/the-new-us-plan-to-rival-chinas-dominance-in-rare-earth-metals.html

Even if the US has its own helium resources, it would probably wish to prevent China from acquiring their own user friendly resource.

"The next two weeks could blow our minds and surpass all expectations"

I'm sure it could, but whether it is two weeks or two months, I'm not too bothered.

Now that DM is tweeting and interviewing again after a week long hiatus shows that things appear to be back on track.

Key points for me are that He-1 have found concentrations of 2.2% helium close to surface, that the Ivuna-1 well drilled in 1987, just 10km NW of Tai-1, found suitable seal rock and potential traps (but no oil, which is what they were looking for), and Tai-1 is located just 20km NE of the Itumbula helium seeps, which have been leaking 10% helium for at least the last 60 years.

Add to that Rukwa is possibly unique globally, and He-1 has licenced most of the area, including Itumbula, the direction in which the evidence is leading is clear.

We're not there yet, but possibly very close.

As to possible foreign and corporate interest in He-1, I'm sure that is considerable.

The last notice of a shareholding we received was 28th May 2021 when someone went below 3%. The one prior to that was 30th April when Scirocco went below 3%, and prior to that 28th April 2021 when a "discretionary clients" shareholding went below 4%.

Indeed notification of interests have been very thin on the ground even after 16th April when He-1 raised £10M with the issue of 100M new shares, around 20% of the total then in issue.

DM welcomed the "new shareholders" on board but very little information as to who they were (are).

The company website gives the following totals as at 28th June

"Hargreaves Lansdown 19.68
Interactive Investor 7.64
HSDL Stockbrokers 5.46
Jarvis Investment Management 3.99
A J Bell 3.65
Oberon Investment Limited (on behalf of discretionary clients) 3.35
Neil Herbert 3.23
John Bolitho 3.06"

Total just over 50%, mainly hidden by nominee accounts, with HL suspiciously way out in front.

Despite all the shares traded (around 65M in the last week alone) and many days when the totals have been 20M to 30M+ there are almost no TR-1's - four in total since IPO, 3 of those above. I suspect it is something to do with the BVI residency. Page 176 of the Admission Document covers it, but I suspect that if a foreign entity had built up a significant stake in the company we pi's would be unaware of that, and no TR-1 would ever be filed.

But I'm sure a number of parties are waiting and watching the situation in Tanzania very carefully, and have drawn their plans accordingly.

it would be foolish if they didn't.

Oops!

Likely a down day today, with recovery over a few days or weeks.

Long term nothing has changed.

Yes, I'd say that is just about bang on, as the target in size is around 2km E-W and 5km N-S.

I'd say the centre of the target is around 1km W of your location, somewhere in amongst those fields and random tree cover. There are more fields to the S, but fewer trees, whilst there are fewer fields and more trees to the N.

I've tried looking at the trees on the video's and locating them to the google earth view, without success. There are very few clues as to the exact location of the rig, but to me an area 1km W of your coordinates would fit the types of view we see in the video views relating to the amount of tree cover.

The photo's on google earth are from 2019, so don't show the recent seismic lines, alas.

The access road to the site appears to run E-W, they say along a seismic line, so could run from the road running SW-NE just to the right of your location.

No doubt we will find out the exact location within a few months, as GE will update its maps.

Yes, very unlikely that He1 will need to raise money prior to the 3/4 well programme being complete. Even after that they have enough money to do some appraisal work - possible then they will raise but with a successful drilling campaign the sp will be multiples of where it is now - so everyone will be happy.

Where I see Helium Ventures is possibly themselves raising cash to buy into He1 licences/prospects at attractive prices.

There is after all an "association" via some directors, associates, various hangers on and onetime registered offices.

They all seem to swim in the same fairly tight knit pool, although He1 is definitely in the vanguard.

HV cash is around £1M, market cap £4M, so you are paying £3M for their contacts/experience/and future possibilities.

If He1 is a runaway success then paying £3M for intangibles may seem like a bargain, especially if they manage to jump on the Rukwa bandwagon.

But if they can't, it may not be such a bargain.

No advice, DYOR, etc etc

We know there is helium there, at least 2.2%.

Question is whether it is trapped?

This 2017 paper

http://repository.udom.ac.tz/bitstream/handle/20.500.12661/588/JOSHUA%20MAHWA-%20REPORT.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

gives a summary of some of the results the Ivuna-1 1987 well. It showed that there were potential seal rocks both close to surface and at deeper levels, below the sandstone.

That drilled for oil and didn't test for He.

Tai-1 is located around 10km SSE of Ivuna-1, so He-1 has/had a pretty good idea of the rock types and formations that they will have encountered.

You can get a good idea of the location of the Tai prospect (within a couple of km) by overlaying various maps on Google Earth - works a treat.

The video confirms that this is the right location via trees, arable fields etc.

He1 have a good idea of what they are doing - the traps are there, it is just a matter of whether the He has been successfully trapped in sufficient quantities.

I've a pretty good idea what DM thinks - "You betcha!"

Here's hoping...

But I think that DM chose to "talk about mud" in the last twitter video was pretty telling.

He could have talked about anything, but he chose mud and the geo truck.

Maybe filling balloons with the gas from the pipe running from the well head to the geo truck and watching them float away would have been too much.

Or he could have dropped a brick on his toe, said "That hurts - You betcha!!" and then explained about gravity.

I'm confused, most of the time.

But helium is an inert gas, so it doesn't burn.

Maybe the Japanese are just as confused.

I feel in my water TD was reached a few days ago - reporting a duster would be easy, and quick.

Make of my water what you will...

Tommy, I regard Tai-1 as well No 1 - and fingers crossed, nothing is a given tho.

Yes, Cove was a really interesting play.

But Cove was never set up to produce, it was always intended that it be taken out once it had made the big discoveries.

Is He1 the same?

I'm not sure, but as I've previously mentioned a number of companies have been set up with some or various association(s) with He1, so I would expect to see the spoils ie licences distributed amongst them to some extent - in return for significant payment of course.

For example, Helium Ventures is due to list in a couple of days - significant shareholders in that venture are Sarah Cope, a director here, and Neil Ritson, former CEO of He1.

That is just one of a number of companies which are semi detached vis a vis He1.

Many wheels within wheels here.