Member Info for skittish

Agreed - the old 3/4 drill plan appears to have been thrown out of the window.

Now even the seismic tracks for pre November 2021 look a bit iffy - not much time left there, unless they take the risk that the rainy season isn't going to be very wet, which it may not be.

But drilling looks dependent on the seismic - so no shallow or deep drills until well into 2022.

That said still lots of potential here, if you can wait another 6 months or so.

So I think we could see a gradual strengthening of the share price into 2022, but it will be like watching paint dry.

I'm surprised that there hasn't been more comments on the recent TMS/DM interview as it appears to me that it contained quite a bit of new information.

My interpretation is as follows:-

1. They "hope" to get seismic trucks operating before the November 2021 rainy season but nothing guaranteed.

2. The "shallow" drilling will likely not take place until the seismic results are in place - not in 2021 anyway - it was unclear to me exactly when it would take place, before or simultaneously with the bigger drill?

3. They'll come back with a bigger rig in 2022, as the bigger bit allows the mud to be pumped in at a reduced pressure, thus making washouts less likely.

4. The washouts are a result of the high porosity of the rock, which is a good sign if gas is present.

5. DM remains confident of finding free gas, both at shallow levels and deeper.

6. The shallow potential finds are still very likely to be potentially commercial due to low extraction costs.

7. They don't need funds "at the moment" with £10M cash

So.......seismic maybe (?) November 2021, no drilling til 2022, and they are maybe unsure whether to drill the shallow areas first or at least until they get better seismic, or go for the big rig next summer. Maybe seismic late 2021/early 2022, drill shallow targets spring 2022, prove up shallow commerciality mid 2022, raise, big drill late summer 2022?

DM still seems confident, although he appears to have had a little stuffing knocked out of him - presenter made quite a bit of some folks sitting on big paper [and maybe real] losses.

Any comments, as appeared to be quite a bit in there, or are people just too disillusioned to comment?

And who are Garnett Commerce Limited ?

Just to update - not done much research myself but this is taken from the BMN thread of 19-10-2020 courtesy of posts from mitchoftheday and jogj99 who appear to have identified the correct Garnett ands the recent history thereof -

M - "I posted this last week
"Alfa was on the case of the right Peterson, R Dean Peterson to be exact. Formerly the owner of Cribb Construction Ltd in Calgary, a company which changed name to Garnet Commerce Ltd in 2018 and now the 50% owner of EHL. I found it on the Alberta business registry as they do things by province.
The internet also reveals that he bought $1.6m worth of Largo shares in 2016, was looking to buy 20 tonnes of V2O5 in 2018 and attended a chinaferroalloys online conference, probably the vanadium one in July. It makes me wonder if he's a BMN shareholder, but that's just conjecture. He certainly seems to be a shrewd investor who got hold of half of Enerox at just the right time."

J - "The following information is provided by Creditreform, Europe's largest credit agency. Enerox GmbH

IZ NÖ-Süd, Straße 3, Objekt M
2355 Wiener Neudorf Commercial

register number:
FN 483106 a

UID number:
ATU73141245 Start

date of the legal form:
2017-12-01

Import quota:
70

Export quota:
100

Job description:
Development, manufacture and sale of industrial goods in the energy industry; Batteries and electrical systems; In the past, assets were acquired, managed and sold, in particular real estate and investments in other companies.
Acting persons:

managing director
Mr. Schönfeldt Alexander
private person with
sole power of representation

partner
company CELLCUBE ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEMS INC.
Limited
share: 10.00%

shareholder
company GARNET COMMERCE LTD.
Limited
Share: 12.45%

shareholder in
BUSHVELD MINERALS LIMITED
Limited
Share: 12.45%

shareholder in
ENEROX HOLDINGS LIMITED
Limited
Share: 65.10%"

J - "So Garnet Commerce hold 50% of Enerox Holdings plus 12.45% of Enerox GmbH so a total of 45% of Enerox"

M - "That's interesting. So the "original consortium" was BMN and Garnet with 24.9%, with EHL taking 65.1 to make 90% of Enerox GmbH. And we Cellcube subsequently sold their 10%, but no to whom"

If true then clearly Garnett are other the major party in Enerox.

I'm sure that someone will correct me if I'm wrong but it seems to me that if the Mustang deal does not go ahead then there will be two possible likely points of failure.

First is if MUST are not readmitted by 31 December 2021, for whatever reason, in which case we get BMN shares.

Second is if the Garnett legal action derails the whole thing, in which case the parties will either renegotiate different acceptable terms or the whole deal is off, and the money invested will surely be returned to PRIM.

The lawyers must have anticipated that the deal would not complete in certain circumstances, and will have dealt with this eventuality. It is page 1 stuff.

That Garnet is willing to sue suggests that there is value to be made in this deal, and it is noticeable that whilst BMN says they will "robustly" defend the claims, they do not say what the claims are or that they have no merit. The information we have on the claims is very sparse (which again suggests to me that there may be some merit there) and no doubt Garnet presently has a High Court injunction in force preventing MUST and BMN completing the deal.

And who are Garnett Commerce Limited ? A quick google search reveals a Canadian company - but the entry says it is "liable for dissolution" - surely not them?

But whoever they are they have sufficient funds to pursue a High Court action and keep it going (not cheap), so they have funding from somewhere.

That BMN have not detailed the claims or given a detailed public rebuttal and that suggests to me that there is more than just hot air being pumped into the High Court, but whatever happens the lawyers will have anticipated a potential failure (that is their job) and PRIM's money will be safe.

Yes, seems to me that the strategy has changed somewhat as a result of the drilling of the two Tai wells.

Originally it was 3/4 wells down to 1200 metres or thereabouts, with Tai testing zones around 500 metres and then 1100 metres.

Now it seems to be many shallow wells near term, down to 100 metres or so, with better seismic and deeper wells with a bigger drill, next year possibly.

What has changed as a result of the two Tai drills?

Well drilling the deeper wells appears to be more problematic than originally envisaged, and there were shows of free gas (albeit not tested with the full array of equipment) trapped at 70 metres, which appears to have surprised them.

So the shallow wells seem to be a relatively "quick and easy" way to confirm and fully test a discovery of free gas, which would boost the share price and interest, and thus fund a full drilling programme next year at deeper levels.

If decent amounts of gas are accumulating at around 100 metres or so it would certainly suggest that there are larger and more worthwhile amounts at deeper levels, as the gas forms deep within the earth and then migrates to the surface.

Bearing in mind the potential here, which seems presently to have been forgotten, the discovery of even relatively small amounts of free gas at shallow levels would really prove up the overall concept and would in itself result in a major rerate. Thus any new funding should not be much of a problem.

The real problem with these smallish stocks, particularly those without income, is that they swing from wild optimism to the depths of despair, sometimes all within the space of a few weeks.

Neither extreme is justified, but when they become unloved, as in this case, then they are very much unloved.

They've got £10m in the bank, probably not enough for a full "big rig" programme in 2022, but plenty for a quite extensive shallow programme in late 2021/early 2022.

Shallow drill, discovery, concept proven, raise ( presumably well above 8p), drill big in mid 2022.

Sit, wait, accumulate.

Seems to me that the days are long gone when the mere existence of an interview with DM would get the share price moving upwards and the twitterati all excited.

Even directors purchasing shares earlier this month has failed to excite the price, and the shares have actually fallen slightly from the respective directors' purchase price.

After all the hype over the summer this share certainly has the whiff of damaged goods, and it will take some time for this to play out.

But that said, and just as with oilers a couple of years ago, the time of peak indifference could present a very good buying opportunity.

A drought is anticipated this winter - all still to play for here given a little bit of patience.

If you count up the on book share trades since 11-8-21, that is just over 3 weeks it comes to just short of 800M.

Total shares in issue are 615M.

If you include your off book, then possibly the number of shares traded in that time may be exceed 1 billion, or twice the issued capital. Some of the shares haven't been traded, others churned may times.

Since IPO the issued capital has been churned I would guess maybe 4 times.

Never a TR1.

Certainly odd behaviour.

I suspect certain state actors are present in size here (but I have not direct evidence), and maybe churning the shares themselves to prevent any specific holdings or holders being identified by anyone, including the company itself.

Not easy to trace when the shares never remain still for more than a few days or weeks at a time.

The LSE rules exist, but are of no effect if you are out of the jurisdiction. The BVI incorporation also helps any nefarious actors and hinders the company in this respect.

No doubt they will reveal themselves when they are ready - post big strike.

If there is no big strike, they'll probably write the investment off.

They are taking a risk, of course, but on a risk reward basis they no doubt consider it to be worthwhile.

We live in interesting times.

Brief mention in "The Times" Market Report section today.....

"Among London’s smaller companies, shares in Helium One, which is on the hunt for helium gas in Tanzania, made a comeback after a sharp fall a couple of weeks ago. The stocks rose ¼p, or 4.3 per cent, to 9p after its directors snapped up 242,900 shares at 8p a share."

Their journo's remain interested in following the story, and maybe Mr Cowie will comment tomorrow, he being a long term type investor. I'm not expecting him to be selling up anytime soon, maybe an outside chance of him doubling down?

And the rainy season is expected to be shorter than usual, with drought conditions in some parts of Tanzania, not good for some but possibly an operational bonus for He1?

"Dar es Salaam. The Tanzania Metrological Authority (TMA) yesterday warned that the country faces drought in the forthcoming rainy season as indicators show many regions will receive rains below normal average."

https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/tanzania-faces-long-spells-of-drought-warns-tma-3536322

The only significant thing that has changed here is the share price.

Interesting that they could get a copyright waiver from "The Times", so they could publish the article in its entirety.

Could it be that all four exploration wells will be drilled at Tai so as to make a really accurate assessment of the prospect?

I have followed Cowie for a number of years, however I have never know him to devote so many column inches, over a number of months to a single stock.

Make of that what you will.

I haven't posted recently, but just though that I'd add my tuppence worth - FWIW.

1. Obviously disappointed by the drastic fall to 10p - I know some people said that this was going to be a rollercoaster, but I wasn't expecting that. Did my loyal best to top up but didn't get them that cheap.

2. With regard to Tai-2 - I thought that from the beginning of July that this was always a likely scenario, or at least a distinct possibility.

On 3rd July 2021 I did post the following on here -

"We don't know that plans have actually changed, but the lack of a second drilling site certainly suggests that they have, if only because things will at the very least not be on schedule.
That the Tai well is now Tai-1, and that additional pipes have been delivered to the wellhead in the last few days, in excess of those apparently required for Tai-1, suggests Tai-2 will be drilled from here, and that all is indeed on schedule.
That Tai-2 may be drilled from here, reinforces the suggestion that they are more than confident about the result from Tai-1."

So from early July I do believe that Tai-2 was on the cards. Obviously the lack of a firm scientific result from the intermediate and lower levels of Tai-1 and Tai-1A makes it more important, that perhaps it was at that time. Clearly I got the timing of the first well completely wrong, but Tai-2 will allow them to make up much of that. Tai-2 maybe was intended to firm up the size of any discovery, whereas now it is intended to be the "Discovery", but I think that with whatever results that have from Tai-1 and 1A, combined with Tai-2 will give them a pretty good idea of what is down there, size wise. They remain confident. Tai-2 has been the plan for a while.

3. I would go as far as to say Tai-3 will follow, but not necessarily from this pad.

4. That the Minister visited the site, probably around the day of the spud of Tai-2, is more than important. He wouldn't visit a duster and if a discovery from Tai-2 is announced, and makes headlines, he would wish to be able to say to the President, or anyone else who asks, "I'm on top of my brief, I visited the site a few weeks ago, I know all about it..."

5. Over the last 8 days 390M+ shares have been traded, of a total of 615M. Obviously many of these will have been churned, some possibly many times, but still no TR1 for an increased holding from anybody since IPO, despite the total shares in issue being turned over several times since then.

6. That the share price fell to 10p on ambivalent results (it obviously wasn't a duster) suggests to me that possibly dark forces are at work (or at least they are "darker" than the usual "dark forces"), and it wasn't just shorters trying to get the price down, but someone possibly loading up big time on cheap shares. And that someone has no intention of filing a TR1, until they see it as appropriate, as they don't play by the rules, or at least not "our" rules.

The smart money knows what is what

The price is creeping up very slowly - I think 28p is an all time closing high.

There is certainly an element of FOMO.

The market made an initial error in its interpretation of the 21/6 RNS, and also to an extent with the 12/7 RNS, with significant price declines after each, followed by recovery.

The market is unlikely to make a similar error for a third time, although if it does there will be plenty waiting to top up.

Still here for the 4 drill programme, even if it lasts into 2022.

Full and significant value will only start to appear after that, although if the next RNS is a whopper it could well triple on the day.

All IMHO, DYOR etc, etc..

Yes, the word "historic" does raise the bar somewhat.

It suggests that this "find" will alter helium prospecting and the market for years to come.

I don't think they would use that word without some justification - they know things but can't yet say them, or they are still going though the figures to reach a definite conclusion which can be published.

And contrast the upbeat tone with the June newsletter - the tone in July is certainly more confident, that of June more cautious.

With regard to what is happening, geologically, to my mind (I'm no geologist) it is still all explained in basic form by the diagram on p91 of the admission document. He is coming up the fault line from below and then getting trapped. When the lower reservoir overflows, due to the He is being produced continually, it migrates upwards through the rock layers (microseepage - not along the fault line), until it is trapped again, and the same process begins, reservoir, overflow, migration upwards, but again, crucially, not along the fault line.

There was a thin seal layer at 70M, 2.2% He, obviously this was not a compressed rock layer, but still managed to trap some He. The evidence at 561M of enhanced He levels, I took to mean that there was a seal only a relatively short distance below 561M, and the enhanced levels were from the overflow, the microseepage, from that reservoir.

The May 2021 presentation suggested that there was a potential trap and seal at 580M (and then another at 1100M), so the anticipated geology appears to line up with what they may have found - and they now appear confident that they have found it.

Everything that we know - albeit only a little - appears to line up with what they expected in their most optimistic projections.

The newsletter also hints at the potential for an intraday RNS, although no doubt the share price will start to move immediately prior to any announcement.

Noob67, yes it relates significantly to the port project, but also railways and industrial parks.

The port, if it comes off will be the largest on the east coast of Africa, and obviously has military implications with regards to its local arch rival in the Indian Ocean, as does the port at Djibouti.

Yes the US and West generally have been way behind the curve with Chinese influence generally in Africa, but I think are now starting to step up, at least as regards Africa, post Obama and Trump. But they do indeed have a long way to go, and the US is often short sighted and short term to say the least.

From a Tanzanian perspective they would wish to extract maximum value from whoever was interested in investing, and if necessary play one part off against another.

The Chinese tend to cover all their bases, and I expect that they will have done so in this case.

I think the BVI angle probably assists.

Never a TR1, though.

I will wait patiently for all 4 drills to complete, before doing anything here, even if it post year end. I think it will take at least until then for something like fair value to be realised, but it will be eye watering.

Whilst we are all waiting for news, the CCP appears to be taking an increased interest in Tanzania, an opportunity provided by the death of the late President -

https://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-and-southern-africa_diplomacy/2021/07/30/beijing-back-in-business-in-dar-es-salaam-post-magufuli,109683275-art

https://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-and-southern-africa_politics/2021/07/09/ex-president-jakaya-kikwete-uses-influence-with-samia-suluhu-hassan-to-china-s-favour,109678791-art

Behind a paywall to which I do not have access but the headline and first few words tell the story well enough.

I'm sure that those who can wait will be well rewarded.

Excellent post Mr Oz, although I suspect (but have no way of knowing for sure) that a foreign entity (or entities) from a certain far east country has likely already built a sizable, albeit undeclared, holding here.

Hence the large daily trades, which have been going on for months, and never a TR1.

It will all come out in the wash, eventually, but someone will have a first mover advantage.

ath

HE1 Helium One Global Ltd 28.75 28.25 1.77% 06 Jul 21

For anyone interested here is a chart from Swayzers Charts posted yesterday.

https://twitter.com/SwazersC/status/1420382093079625729/photo/1

We remain in the rectangular box, but a closing break above 26.6p should take us up to 34p soon after, thereafter it is blue sky.

I guess a closing break below 24.7p would be bearish.

The box appears to emphasise how important it is to close below 26.6p on any given day so as to remain in the box, and perhaps explains the price action at the close with the UT trade at 26.5p setting the final price.

If you believe.