Member Info for skittish

Ah ha!

That is the $65,000 question.

I would hope that on a bumper RNS (must be bumper) ie significant find, 8% to 10% He, commercial etc we would do 100% in the first day, with perhaps another 50% over the following week, ie to 75p after 5 trading days.

Then you've got another 2/3 drills over the next 2/3 months, if all or say 2 of 3 are successful, then I'd be hoping for around 150p giving a market cap of around £1Bn.

Presumably at that stage the whole basin would be de risked - so I think you could see a potential spike to 250p sometime during this period.

Looking further out I suppose it depends on how they go - finance should be no problem, nor finding partners with deep pockets.

I'm no expert of the He market, and understand that there is presently a shortage. But later in this decade the shortage will abate as production from Qatar and Russia ramps up via gas production.

Where this asset really comes into play is beyond 2030, when likely gas production will be significantly curtailed due to lack of demand for gas due to climate change regs. Then pure play He producers will really come into their own, and He1 is likely to find itself with a unique global asset.

All bets are off if you can wait a decade, and He1 are not taken out prior.

All very much back of an envelope calcs, DYOR etc.

Other calculations are no doubt available...

Here's hoping He1 also goes 20p to 285p.

Maybe it is a sign...

You can tell when the stress starts getting to people - not that anyone on this board is at all stressed.

285p nailed on?

Yes, and the account holders of the big sellers have monthly, quarterly etc targets to hit.

You don't have to hang on for the biggie and be No 1 trader, you just have to be consistently quite good, and you do that by managing your risk.

If (and it is certainly "if") my earlier calculations are anywhere near correct, and He1 have done another 120M today, then it is possible that by this evening they will be down somewhere between 1070M to 1120M.

By close tomorrow it would be 1190M to 1240M.

TD is 1200M and on the presentation the main target appears to be an area between 1080M to 1310M.

The upper target was between 600M to 810M.

If all the pipes in the SWL 10Kkg rack were used that would take them down to around 1370M.

I guess if DM wished to explain why he looked so confident then a discussion of gas samples in mud and the geolog truck would suffice.

As to trading today then I guess the "big hitters" know that He1 is closing very rapidly on TD and time is now very short if they wish to modify their positions prior to any significant RNS. If they're in from low single figures then they will trade in a different manner to most pi's, hence way more sells than buys.

Can't see He1 keeping quiet beyond the end of this week.

All IMHO,DYOR etc...

Very positive tweet - I too don't think they would be doing that unless they remain confident.

The shadows are to DM's left in the initial shots, so the sun is to the right of him. In previous shots the sun has set "behind" the rig, so that determines the direction of West. So the video appears to have been shot during early afternoon - possibly yesterday?

There now appear to be just 4 layers of pipes in the SWL 10,000kg carrier, so since 1-7-21 they've used 1.5 layers (assuming it hasn't been replenished).

1.5 layers is 30 x 6M, so roughly 180 metres.

If they were at 750-800M on 1-7-21, when the video was filmed they'd be at around 930 - 980M.

My guesstimate for the drilling timeline would be

1-7-21 - down to 750-800M (DM's earlier proactive iv appears to show drilling stopped that day)

2/3-7-21 - cementing

4/5-7-21 drilling again at a rate of around 120M per day, if the video was filmed yesterday afternoon.

Could have been down to around 950M to 1000M by close of play yesterday.

The latest presentation appears to show the top of the target at around 1080M, so they must be very, very close now with this mornings drilling under their belt....

Of course the video could have been filmed earlier, but certainly appears to be in the last couple of days, but I'd go for yesterday afternoon.

Mmmm...in reply to the last two post, anything is possible, and without being on site you don't actually know what is happening, unless He1 tell you - and they are not giving away too much precise information at present.

But I do think that next week will be the crunch week.

I'm going for a Thursday pm or Friday 7.00am RNS.....

SHB, I too start to get nervous when plans change, and on occasion when I have not been nervous it has resulted in a significant loss.

After all if the plan was so good why change it?

We don't know that plans have actually changed, but the lack of a second drilling site certainly suggests that they have, if only because things will at the very least not be on schedule.

That the Tai well is now Tai-1, and that additional pipes have been delivered to the wellhead in the last few days, in excess of those apparently required for Tai-1, suggests Tai-2 will be drilled from here, and that all is indeed on schedule.

That Tai-2 may be drilled from here, reinforces the suggestion that they are more than confident about the result from Tai-1.

And DM does indeed appear to be a good salt, a proper geologist rather than a man usually in a suit pretending.

And management generally have fairly good track records.

It is going to be an interesting two weeks that's for sure.

Thanks for that - hopefully I'm on the right track, nothing ever guaranteed mind.

The last bit was-

PS I'm not a premium member so can't receive DM's.

DM (the other DM) does refer to things being very much de risked, I suppose if they manage to appraise this find, and it becomes a biggie, it will make all the other He1 licence areas in the Rukwa valley, potentially very valuable without them actually having to be drilled.

Helium Ventures seems to hint at making a possible play for something around there, but they are very cryptic.

I've been having a look through the recent tweets to see if any more information can be extracted to help us plot the possible/potential routes forward.

I postulated that by 1-7-21 they could be at around 750M and would hit TD on 4th July.

The latest tweeted picture suggests that the pipes are 6M long, not 7M and thus they would have been at 700M on 1-7 - assuming they had used the 50 "missing" pipes and had started the copious tweeting once past 400M, and through the tricky Lake Bed Formation.

That they are through this is confirmed in the latest DM interview of 2-7.

On 1-7 the SWL 10,000kg carrier appeared to have around 100 pipes remaining on it which would give a total pipe length of 600M, so that would be TD + 100M contingency.

So that appears to make sense.

But on the morning of 30-6 around 80 more 6M pipes arrived on site (together with some shorter pipe lengths) - so that gives an additional 480M of pipe. Question is why?

Furthermore the timetable in the latest presentation suggests that the second exploration well is to commence drilling before mid July, with the 3 well programme completed by mid September. And those chunky bonus shares appear to hang on that being completed on time and on budget.

But preparation of the present drilling pad had begun by 17-5, as per twitter, prior to drilling commencing on 12-6. So that is around 4 weeks lead time for the pad prior to drilling. But thus far there has been no news on preparation of a drilling pad at another location which would appear to throw the whole drilling schedule into doubt. Question is why?

Furthermore, the well we now know as Tai-1, has only been called Tai-1 since 21-6, prior to that they referred to the site as "the Tai prospect", or "the Tai exploration well", or "the Rukwa Project". Why?

It seems (to me) that something changed between the gas shows at 70M on 19-6 and DM hot footing it to Rukwa on 23-6.

DM hints, in the latest interview at wanting to be on site, being there when the information comes in, and when key decisions are being made.

To me this suggests plans have changed, and as someone earlier suggested, the next well will be Tai-2, an appraisal well from the same drilling pad, targeting a different part of the anticipated 5kmx2km structure. That is the reason for the new pipes at this location, the name of the well, and no prep, so far as we are aware, at other locations.

It would also keep the drills on schedule and on budget for all those chunky director and management options.

Would also agree that they now appear to be cementing, no drilling activity or noise in the background yesterday's interview, perhaps confirming that they are down around 800M, all ready for the last push to TD @ 1200M.

Even allowing the for cement to set I can't see them reaching TD much past mid the coming week, so this looks indeed like squeaky bum time.

But DM seems very confident - got to be a bit careful of that mind.

PS. I'm not p

They're teasing.....

And I don't think for a moment that it is a coincidence that the pipes are located in the background of the image....

Today, around an hour ago, we have a photo of the rig at the close of drilling with DM and Randy McDonald standing in front looking pretty please with themselves.

There are four stacks of pipes between them and the rig - one in a sort of yellow rack (SWL 10,000kg), another to the right of that and then two stacks of shorter pipes immediately behind them.

On 30th June @ 8.04am we had another tweet showing the rig and similar stacks of pipes.

The rear most stack of shorter pipes appear to be an addition, as is the stack of pipes to right of the SWL 10,000 rack - neither appears in the photo from dawn on 30th June.

However the number of those pipes contained in the SWL 10,000kg rack appears to have diminished.

This evening there are around 5.5 layers of pipes, each layer containing around 20 pipes.

Yesterday morning there appear to have been around 8 layers of again, 20 pipes.

Assuming no pipes have been transferred to the other piles (sounds like one of those old "O" level questions) one can work out the number of pipes used in the last two days.

It is actually 2.5 x 20 = 50.

The pipes look to be around 20 ft long (happy to be corrected, there must be a standard pipe size) - call it 7 metres.

If that is correct (and it may be a big "if"), in the last two days 350 metres of pipe has been used.

Now if we were at 400M when the tweets began, ie @ Tuesday evening, and through the tricky Lake Bed Formation, we are now drilling through the much easier sandstone and doing around 175M per day.

So close of today we could be at 750 metres.

Would perhaps explain why they are so please with themselves, and why the tweeting has recommenced with wild abandon.

Alternative explanations/calculations/measurements accepted, but at this rate of drilling we'll be at TD (1200M) early afternoon on 4th July.

Happy Independence Day.

Very clear and positive. Clearly a difficult drill, going slowly to get it right. People wanted news, this is it. They remain very optimistic, what more do People want?

Helium, one of a number of companies that are being created around HE1.

NR ex CEO of HE1.

I think anyone reading the Sunday Times article today needs to take account of Mr Cowie's investing style.

He is an ultra cautious long term investor many of whose followers will also invest in a similar style.

That he is invested in He1 at all is a minor miracle - exploration stocks of whatever nature would not normally feature in his column. He tends to go for solid long term cash generators.

That he remains invested after being 150%+ up in a matter of two months is a second minor miracle.

I suspect all his words of caution are directed at his usual audience - as a warning that this is not his standard fayre.

Is to how much he has invested I don't know. He put in 1%, so presumably that is now 2.5% of his portfolio.

What the portfolio is worth is never disclosed, but a little while ago he did disclose, following the day the market snapped back on vaccine news, that he made more in a day than he used to make in a year in the day job as a successful financial journalist.

So I'd suggest that his portfolio of fairly boring, household name stocks is somewhere in the single digit £ millions, and thus his present investment in He1 is probably somewhere north of £100K.

As to what he earned when he had a day job I have no idea, but he was the AIC freelance journalist of the year 2017, 2018 and 2019, the Press Club Consumer Journalist of the Year 2013, and an Editor at the Daily Telegraph since 1989.

Just as the RNS of 21-6-2021 was misinterpreted, causing a 20% share drop (thanks for that!), I suspect that this article is also being misinterpreted.

It cautions his usual readership of old fuddy duddies that this is not his usual type of stock.

But if anyone doubts the confidence of directors here do a bit of research and have a look at the numbers of companies created in the last year of so by management and their associates, with dates of significant activity often coinciding or being close to dates of significant activity at He1.

Directors might not be certain of success, but they and their associates are certainly well tooled up for success should it arrive, and it looks like He1 will have a whole support structure built around it in order to deal with what could be an asset of global significance and also channel money in the direction of Tanzania.

As always IMHO, DYOR etc etc...

We don't exactly know when news will come - it could be Monday, or sometime next week, or even the week after.

The news we are expecting is that they have found quantities of helium in a seal and trap structure and that this is a commercial find.

That appears to be why DM is so excited, as the geology in the upper reaches of the drilling thus far suggests that this could be the case, although we were, as of last Saturday only 70M down when helium was discovered and the main reservoirs, if such exist are expected to be somewhere between 400M and 1200M.

That helium exists close to this location is not disputed, as it is continually generated deep within the crust and migrates upwards. The only bone of contention is whether it is trapped within a reservoir within the rock structure and can be extracted commercially.

Page 91 of the Admission Document appears to illustrate what they believe they have found -

http://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/259989-Project-Apollo-CLN-reduced-memory-Final-13.11.20.pdf

Meanwhile my Twitter feed reliably informs me that He1 will be mentioned in the Money section of the Sunday Times tomorrow. Ian Cowie, a fairly reliable commentator, is giving an update on his original 10.6p tip from April 2021, describing it as "squeaky share time".

Sky News may also be about to pick up on the story, their curiosity appears to have been piqued.

We live in interesting times.

Should make clear, at 400M, it reads to me, they won't try to flow test from the Lake Bed formation, but may do from the upper part of the Red Standstone formation, which should be just below the 400M level.

They obviously don't trust the Lake Bed Formation to be stable.

As well as drilling to 400M, it looks like they will then do wireline logs, then cement that - which will take a few days - then drill on from 400M and see what they find.

I guess if they hit something big at 450M then they may try to flow test that, if the well is stable.

When, exactly, is anyone's guess - could be doing it now, could be a week or even more.

Exciting times!

No idea on time taken to drill the first 400M - they gave a month to drill to the 1200M TD, and many though it would be 300M per week, whereas they only got to 70M after the first week.

So it may take a while longer, or they could be there now.

As I say Twitter is suddenly silent, so we have no news at present - it had occurred to me that the NOMAD may have "suggested" David Minchin to go to Tanzania, just to get him out of the way and stop all the twittering and interviews!

Just kidding (maybe).

This is what the last RNS said - it is all in there and the prospectus, if you read it very carefully.

"Drilling will continue to the Base of the Lake Bed Formation, anticipated to be at 400 metres. At this point the Company will then commence wireline logging to gain additional information on the formation reservoir characteristics and identify any potential pay zones. After logging the Lake Bed Formation, this section of the hole will be cased and drilling will continue to Basement.

Due to the poorly consolidated nature of the Lake Bed Formation encountered at Tai-1, it will not be possible to perform drill stem tests on any pay zones identified in the shallow strata in this well. This is to remove the risk of hole collapse during flow testing and ensure that Tai-1 can continue to test prospective closures at depth in the Red Sandstone and Karoo Formations"

So they go to 400M, test with wireline logs and, if the well is stable, likely try to flow test whatever is there, then cement, and then go lower.

As for the Chinese I don't think they will necessarily get first dibs, and many are now wary in Africa of their involvement in matter - "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy is not everyone's cup of tea.

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/only-drunkard-would-accept-these-terms-tanzania-president-cancels-killer-chinese-loan-worth-10-818225

And to me it looks like the first deals are already lined up (if not actually inked), although much will depend on actual drilling success and a CPR - giving He1 some ready cash, and reducing the risk profile generally.

The next few weeks should prove quite interesting one way or another - probably the only thing which actually is absolutely certain.

Agreed - but I also believe 100p is likely after a significant discovery (although it may take a day or two to get there) - the last RNS (21-6-21) made it abundantly clear that there was a discovery on 19-6-21 - but as yet we (nor they) they know the volume or % involved, albeit it will be above 2.2%.

It is noticeable that their twitter feed has now gone silent - clearly too much at stake for loose tongues to go wagging. Maybe the NOMAD felt that they were sailing a bit too close to the wind with all the twittering and interviews.

But it was noticeable that Mike Booyens Operations Director (22-6-21) and Randy Donaldson (16-6-21) "He is the right man to see the job done" got significant Twitter mentions - they hint that it is not an easy drill and that is why it took them a week to do the first 70 metres - maybe less experienced people would not do so well.

As to David Michins visit to the drill site (starting 22/23 - 6 21) I think there is probably much more to it that simply a photo opportunity or wanting to be there when the big hit happens - although there may be an element of that, any geologist would like to be present when they strike a "gusher"!

No, I think the visit is much more fundamental - a big discovery could result in a change in strategy - they were planning 3 wells targeting different types of potential enclosure, it will almost certainly be 4 now, as the drilling company will want all those "free" shares.

I think David Michin will be discussing where they go from here if this well does indeed come in very good - do they go for more risk, less risk or stick to the original plan? You don't really want to get a first gusher and then a flop on the second well, which targets a different type of enclosure.

So I think he wants to be there on the ground, to discuss with the geologists and engineers what to do next. If the second well is to be drilled in July, then they probably only have a couple of weeks at most to discuss any change of plan.

As for any photo op, this will be for the benefit of UK shareholders, in Tanzania this will be presented as a domestic success story and the politicians will want full credit for this - Tanzania has been undergoing a tough time recently, so they need all the good news they can get.

As to where to go following the 3/4 well drilling programme I suspect that they are much further ahead with regard to corporate activity than has been disclosed or discussed.

Many parties will be observing from the side lines, Tanzania is after all "unique globally" as regards Helium activity and He1 have a very significant first mover advantage.

How best to take advantage of significant success will be a problem in itself ( a nice one mind), and it will already have been though through - all those different licence areas makes the mind boggle. Too many to He1 to take on alone.

The summer is for drilling, I suspect that the autumn will be for the deals - with some already lined up.

chennowitz - in reply to you, whilst emphasising that I'm no geologist, most of the information that you seek is indeed in the prospectus.

p95 explains the theoretical migration of the helium from the deep basement rock - "Migration of the helium primarily from its source towards the surface is typically along pathways associated with rifting such as faults along the flanks of rifts."

Like any liquid ort gas the helium finds the path of least resistance, in this case the faulting within the rock system.

" Migration can be halted by seals or traps. If trapping structures are present on the migration pathway, a gas phase can accumulate. The trap will be filled with helium-rich gas until full and then spill. The excess spilled fraction if not trapped further up in the system will escape at surface seeps (Ballentine and Barry, 2016)."

The importance of the helium at 2.2% which He1 has discovered is that it has seeped from below through the Lake Bed formation to a depth of 70M where it has been concentrated by a layer of shale. The place where it has seeped upwards is NOT along a fault line.

This indicates that the escaping helium is coming from a reservoir where it has been trapped, and is "spilling over" because the reservoir is full and entering the surrounding rock from where it migrates upwards - and such an event is clearly shown on p91 of the prospectus.

That is why DM is now so sure it is evidence of a reservoir seal and trap and why he is "super, super excited" and why it is a "fantastic indication".

It is not a "discovery" as such and there is no indication of definite percentages (but these will surely be greater than 2.2%) or size of reservoirs, but this information will surely follow, once drilling is completed.

The key thing is that the seepage is into the soil and not along a fault line, so it can only be coming from a trapped reservoir.

And it is likely that DM has access to other findings and measurements that we are not privy to but essentially He1 has nailed the geology and are drilling in exactly the right place. More very good news is nailed on.