Member Info for skittish

There will be an EGM at which you can vote on the deal.

Your shares will remain just as they are.

Looks like there is some hope - a little.

Existing shareholders look like they will be diluted by 90% - our existing shares are worth roughly £1M, we've got to raise another £1M (shouldn't be too difficult), and £8M in shares goes to Saltfleetby Energy .

Saltfleetby Energy will own roughly around 85% of AAOG.

A good deal for Saltfleetby Energy as they get value of nearly £8M from our £41M tax losses to add to their own £62M in tax losses. When the Russkies left the company they also bequeathed the Saltfleetby Energy bank account £15M in decommissioning money, which is now not being used as the field is being recommissioned.

Next accounts due out from Saltfleetby Energy (and Forum) by the end of this month.

7th May is the date AAOG is actually removed from the official list.

Of course Forum (owner of 100% Saltfleetby Energy (which owns 49% of the Saltfleetby Field) and 24% shareholder here) ) waited until delisting as an RNS with these details would have constituted an RTO for the purpose of the rules, and if issued earlier, would have meant we were not delisted. If AAOG had been trading, it may have sent the share price up a tad or two and they would have got fewer AAOG shares. Nothing like delisting to concentrate everyone's minds.

Have AAOG shareholders been shafted? Well, yes, to an extent, but then the options were probably very limited, and even more limited post 4.30pm today.

Forum/Saltfleetby Energy look like they have go an excellent deal, which has been several years in the planning, including during AAOG's decline when Sefton and Berwick were raping the company.

But more optimistically look at HE1, where Sarah Cope is also involved. After a near death experience and RTO, following relisting and renaming the shares are up close to 6x in 6 months.

I doubt if we'll find any helium under Lincolnshire - but where there is life there is hope.

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see the whole of the Forum/Saltfleetby Energy interest list via the "New AAOG" eventually.

And Forum is essentially a private individual, Paul Forrest, so it would be interesting to see who is really behind that company, and what assets/interests they have. Possibly big players having bought Saltfleetby from Gazprom.

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/00953066/filing-history

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/09903234/filing-history

They do tend to flag news in advance via a cryptic tweet; I don't think we'll have to wait too long for the actual RNS.

More sponsorship?

I think the big sums to Beckham may be holding this back, as they will act as a drag on profits, but once he proves his worth, I think the maths will quickly flip in the right direction, and then there will be no holding this back.

Tail/Dog

3.00pm Thurday - date and time to watch.

Volume over here is many times what it is in US, so I don't think the tail will wag the dog.

Thursday will be the big day, but doesn't rule out a rise/news prior.

VRFB's - IES, PRIM, MUST.

In the event of HE1 striking big I'd probably put some of the HE1 profits into PRIM, IES if they remain at present levels.

DYOR etc.

1/2

Somewhat puzzled by the PRIM reaction to what was obviously our “big” news.

Clearly investors don't care/understand/believe/know about this deal, bearing in mind the very muted reaction.

I've been trying to get a handle on what the deal might actually be worth. Obviously more precise figures will be in the MUST prospectus when published.

On the figures - I'm happy to be corrected if anyone finds errors – maths was never my strong point.

Working backwards Enerox Holdings Limited (EHL) owns 100% of Enerox Gmbh, the vanadium battery maker.

VFRB owns 50% of EHL.

MUST is buying 22.1% of VFRB for $7.5M (of which PRIM are contributing $2.5M or 8.3% of the $30M total raised by EHL). So MUST will effectively own 11.05% of EHL.

But matters are more complicated for PRIM as we are buying shares in MUST and a) MUST are raising a total of $8M, and b) already have 10.28M shares in issue.

So how much of MUST will we acquire?

Well the $8M converts to £5.714M @ $1.40/$. So if the shares are 20p then on the pure capital amount (forgetting interest) that will convert to 28,570,000 new MUST shares.

There are already 10.28M MUST shares in issue so the new total will be roughly 38.85M MUST shares.

For our $2.5M, that is £1.785M @ $1.40/£ x 20p = 8.928M new MUST shares to PRIM.

So of the 38.85M new MUST shares we will own 22.96% or rounded 23%.

So if MUST owns 11.05% of EHL, and PRIM owns 23% of MUST then PRIM owns indirectly 2.54% of EHL.

Rather conveniently that 2.54% is very close to the same figure as our $2.5M investment, meaning following the investment of $30M, EHL is now valued by the new investors at exactly $100M.

$100M is £71.4M.

continued.....

2/2 continued...

That appears to be how much the new investors are willing to pay but how much is it actually worth?

One similar company is Invinity Energy Systems IES. They appear in many ways similar to EHL, 14 years R&D experience, 25MWh installed or signed, likely 12 month orders of around 40MWh.

https://invinity.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Invinity-Corporate-Presentation-Nov20_WEB.pdf

EHL has 20 years R&D experience, 23MWh installed and intends 30MWh capacity by 2022.

Similar but perhaps EHL is 12 months behind and we await details of orders/workflow etc.

Invinity is presently valued at £113M @ 132p per share. They were however above 200p from December 2020 to March 2021 (ath 230p) – Bushveld have recently been selling, at least partly to invest in EHL, possibly contributing to price weakness, although Schroders have been buying.

At 200p Invinity would be valued at £174M, at 230p £200M.

So based on 113p for Invinity we have bought into EHL at a price of 63% of Invinity's value. At 200p we've got shares in EHL for 41%, at 230p (Invinity's value as at 31-12-2020) for 35%.

Of course we await full details in the MUST prospectus, re potential/actual sales, and there is an execution risk, although I'm sure Bushveld will be on hand to assis following on from their dealings with Invinity.

At the MUST share price on readmission will be far more crucial to PRIM than the Invinity share price.

Further upside could be provided by MUST being 30p at suspension, whilst we're converting the shares at 20p.

Happy to be corrected on any potential errors, but if Invinity recovers to anywhere near its previous high's it looks like we have a stonking deal.

Primorus also tweeted yesterday, for the first time in 6 months.

They can be followed here -

https://twitter.com/priminvestments/status/1387335092977160198

Could give further insights as to directors thinking from time to time, if they became a regular tweeter.

Well I think this is a great investment.

I won't bother going on about the virtues of vanadium batteries, everybody can research them at leisure, and I'm no expert - I didn't even know there was such a thing a few days ago.

Clearly Bushveld are looking for an outlet for product of their vanadium mining activities, so going into the battery business and then raising cash from new investors is a logical step.

Obviously the risk profile has changed - cash is being exchanged for shares in an entity which intends to vastly ramp up production of its product which of course has a marketing and execution risk.

But the world is changing - I've read somewhere that President Biden is executing a $4 Trillion stimulus package - some of it will go into green energy generation, where the US is now playing catch up.

His address to Congress last night included the lines - “When I think about climate change, I think jobs,” he said. “There’s no reason the blades for wind turbines can’t be built in Pittsburgh instead of Beijing."

There is obviously going to be a big - read massive - push for wind generation in the US.

Well if you're phasing out coal and gas (which the US and much of the rest of the world is) you need somewhere to store that electricity for when the wind doesn't blow. Vanadium batteries are infinitely chargeable, their big advantage over lithium, and don't lose their charge even after 20 years operation.

Primorus is in on the ground floor - look up the meaning of Primorus - that is what it is designed to achieve.

The directors obviously "believe" - they have significant skin in the game. The Enerox deal was obviously given the go ahead shortly after Acacia invested in and provided cash for DD to Mustang on 12-3-21, taking a 24% holding. Both Mr Labrum and Mr Holden declared additional purchases in Primorus on 19-3-2021, having bought in 100K lots between 11-3-21 and 18-3-21. They will know more about this deal than any of us so, if that isn't a green light I don't know what is. Then there were the 14M share trades in Primorus between 6-4-21 and 22-4-21 - I suspect someone bed and ISAing - can only be one candidate for that really.

And Mr Labrum holds 258,499 shares in Mustang - I'd say that was a smidgin over 3%, and would have been significantly over if pre 12-3-21 - so he almost certainly bought following 12-3-21.

Clearly the close involvement of Mr Labrum and Mr Holden with Mustang could look slightly incestuous, however I take it as an excellent opportunity to get into an investment at an early stage - we have shares in Mustang @ 20p, close pre suspension 30p!

There is clearly the expectation of a significant rise in the PRIM share price at some point - clearly the market, and potential investors are unaware, or don't care at present.

I suspect that the deal will be concluded fairly quickly and Mustang will return to trading, giving a tangible value.

Load up in PRIM - if you dare!

A very significant amount of publicity recently - Sky, BBC, Daily Mail, now The Times, to mention a few.

Purpose? I'm not quite sure but I have a feeling that something big is brewing in the background.

That is what the Sunday Times says - and one of them is out of action with RSI !

But apparently they are quite good, when not under the physio.

"His newest venture, Semper, has already recruited its first video game team: three players — between the ages of 16 and 21 — known as Top Blokes. They play Rocket League, a football game with boost-propelled cars. The youngest, regarded as one of Europe’s top players, was recently signed off with repetitive strain injury before a crucial match."

They were rated No3 in Rocket League (when not injured) as opposed to the Guild team at No 6.

Article in Sunday Times - behind paywall - mainly about Semper (IPO tomorrow), but does comment on esports generally - gonna be bigger than the World Cup!

Says Beckham's Guild "has slumped".

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/atari-founder-nolan-bushnell-esports-will-be-bigger-than-the-world-cup-68fjh6qqm

Interesting dichotomy between Guild and Semper

Guild market valuation £30M, with cash @ 30-9-20 of £18M, and now with a couple of dozen players, and initial sponsorship deals etc

Semper market valuation (at IPO) £4M, raising £2.5M, with 3 players.

Semper is listing @ 4p, not sure it will stay there very long, if indeed you can buy, but surely they will need to raise more cash bigtime and quickly. Looks like they are operating on a shoestring, albeit with some big names and a knack for publicity.

Will be interesting to compare the two in 6 months.

Mmm...that comes to exactly 14M shares comprising the large trades since the last director holding RNS on 19-3-2021; or exactly 10% of the company, which could be divided 5% sells and 5% buys.

If they are all being bed and ISA'd and it is just one individual then that is too many shares for Mr Hemming, leaving only one candidate, Mr Labrum.

We know Mr Labrum has an ISA (admittedly not unusual to possess such a thing) as The Times told us so in 2014.

No doubt all will be revealed once the transactions are complete, but if it is Mr Labrum, and if all his shares are being put into an ISA (admittedly a lot of "if's" here) then he is only one third of the way to completing that.

But of course there could be other transactions taking place, about which we know nothing at present - we just see the resulting ripples cascading across the aether caused by unseen and unknown activity and have to interpret that as best we can with the limited information to hand.

I guess once matters are finalised share wise, to the satisfaction of the directors, we will all know as an RNS of some kind will follow, but what information is contained therein is anyone's guess.

Anyway, I'm waffling.

Hopefully when the RNS comes it is blockbuster news.

I think it is really tricky at the moment to decide which are sells and which are buys.

Yesterday the sells appeared to be around 4.715/6p and I took it that the trades at 4.8p were actually buys although the official price is 4.7p-4.9p.

The 1M didn't fit into this pattern at 4.77p, and nor does the 225K at 4.796p, although that is just a smidgin below yesterday's 4.8p.

But as you say, notwithstanding these large trades, large in comparison to the overall volume and in relation to the number of shares in issue (139M), the price doesn't move.

I took it that the previous large trades, which could be apportioned 5.5M vs 5.5M were probably our 2nd largest shareholder bed and ISAing - but it is impossible to know really, unless someone comes out and says definitively.

Now the additional 1M throws a bit of a spanner into that calculation.

The 225K could possibly fit a pattern of previous pi trades.

I think we'll have to await more trades, or an RNS to try to determine what is really going on. Whatever it is doesn't yet appear to have come to an end. It does appear however that the price is being "held" to accommodate whatever is going on.

Back to watching and waiting.

Yes, just as you think it has all gone quiet something happens.

Question is where are all the shares coming from and why, and where are they going?

Looks like someone is vacuuming away in the background.

Yesterday -

21-Apr-21 16:27:42 63.00 125,000 Unknown* 62.00 64.00 78.75k O

Which took up every share sold in the last two hours, all between 62.05p and 62.89p, and was way and above the largest trade of yesterday.

Today two late trades reported

22-Apr-21 14:12:32 64.00 100,000 Buy* 62.00 64.60 64.00k O
22-Apr-21 16:42:23 63.50 140,000 Buy* 62.00 64.60 88.90k O

Again both whoppers and by far the largest trades of the day.

Looks like the price is being held for the accumulator - it will blow sometime.

Volume!

22-Apr-21 17:27:50 4.77 1,000,000 Sell* 4.70 4.90 47.70k

Our mystery trades are back - another 0.71% of the company - does look like a sell, presumably a balancing buy will show up in due course. I can't help but feel that there ultimately is some purpose to all this.

All to be revealed at some later date, hopefully.

Yes, thing seem a little more stable today, with buying outweighing selling by quite a margin.

And the team certainly appear to be pulling things together - and surely sponsorship/money must flow from that.

The volume yesterday was actually a record 14.7M, due to a late reported sell of 2.6M. So, jury still out but maybe we have seen that last of the 1M+ sells.

Miri straddles the globe - now in Australia -

https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/movies/2021/04/21/product-placement-films/

Thanks to TheSaint on the "other side".

Miri appears to have invented something which appears to sell itself. It seems that the entire world is beating a path to their door, so much so that they can afford to be fussy about who they deal with -

"Mirriad vice president of brand partnerships Maria Teresa Hernandez said the company was selective about which brands made the cut.

“It’s a priority for Mirriad to authentically align brands to not only the right content, but the right moments,” Ms Hernandez said.

“Tecate and Ayala are a great example of an authentic partnership of brand and artist that will resonate and enrich the relationship with their loyal audiences.”"