RE: RNS10 Apr 2021 10:31
I've changed my mind - we are most definitely due an RNS from at least one party.
There are 139, 830,968 shares in issue - so 1% is 1,398,309, or 1.4M for ease of calculation.
Prior to the last directors RNS on 19-3-21 most of the large trades (buys) were around 100K, with a couple approaching 300K, obviously picking up loose stock. Up to then directors had picked up around 1.3M - and this was reported in the 19-3-21 RNS.
The following week a similar pattern emerged with 6 100K buys. The week after things jazzed up a little with 3 trades of around 250K reported - all appearing to be buys - on another chat board 1 pi claimed one of the 250K's.
Last week the pattern changed dramatically - mainly 200K sells Tuesday and Wednesday - all subsequently matched by buys and then on Thursday 8th April the price artificially dipped from 4.8p-5.2p to 4.7p-5.1p and we got the following trades all at mid price -
12.10 600K 4.9p
15.13 1500K 4.9p
15.14 1500K 4.9p
15.25 1500K 4.9p
16.20 1500K 4.9p
18.30 1500K 4.9p
Now the 15.25 and 16.20 were reported that day with only a slight delay, the 16.20 being followed a few seconds later by the spread/commission payment trade - sell/buy with the buyer paying all the spread/commission.
The 15.13, 15.14 and 18.30 were all reported the following day.
I would assume that two of these were sells and one buy, so we are still awaiting a 1.5M balancing trade. The price moved back up to 4.8p-5.2p on opening the following day.
Now some of these trades may yet be deleted, or possibly they are evidence of a "pass the parcel" type arrangement, but if they are a genuine sell/buy arrangement then additional the previous activity someone on 8-4-21 sold 4.5M shares and someone bought 3M+ shares.
4.2M is 3% of the company, so we would be most definitely due an RNS now, just based on the sellers activity.
If the same buyer is responsible for much of the recent 100K activity, then he has probably bought somewhere in the region of 5M to 5.5M shares over the past couple of weeks, approaching 4% of the company.
Most of the significant declared shareholders here are hidden by either nominee accounts or by being just under 3% but RNS's reveal the following holdings -
Mr A R Po**** 8-9-20 3% 4,195,000 shares
Mr S Ball 9-9-20 3.1% 4,210,822 shares
Mr J A M Hemming 24-2-21 4% 5,592,809 shares
Mr Po**** is definitely aligned with the present board, as I think is Mr Ball. Mr Hemming is enigmatic, as ever. All should be sitting on a fairly decent short term profit at 4.9p. I'm assuming previous directors sold out long ago, Clayton went below 3% in November, and that is what pushed the price down into the 3's end 2020.
If, and it is a big if, Mr Labrum is our "mystery buyer", I had calculated based on March activity it would take until July for him to get to 30%. At present speed he'll be there by the end of this month.
Watching and waiting.